Skills Assessments Stirling December 2016

Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments Key Data for Stirling Implications for Skills Investment Planning

An Introduction to Skills Assessments

What are Skills Assessments? A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group. Purpose: Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years 2017-2020 Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

Why are they important for skills planning? They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels. They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment. They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning. They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

Scottish Skills Planning Model

What do they cover? Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE). The data matrix is found here: https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/what-we-do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments/ This slide pack provides a summary of the data for this area

Local Authority Overview Stirling is a city in Central Scotland and is the largest local authority in the Forth Valley region A relatively prosperous area, with lower levels of deprivation than average A stronger economy and labour market in Stirling than the other Forth Valley local authorities High GVA and strengths in the financial and insurance sector

Business Trends Growth of the business base below the Scottish rate (6.7% v. 7.3%) in 2015 240 new businesses including: Professional, Scientific and Technical (+55), Business Administration and Support Services (35+) and Food & Accommodation (30+) 98% of businesses are small or micro (<50 employees) 10 businesses employ more than 250 people 411 businesses per 10,000 population compared to 313 nationally 10.4% self employment in Stirling, slightly below the national figure (10.8%) In 2015, the number of Growth Sector businesses grew by 3% to 1,830 31% of total employment in Growth Sectors (compared to 28% nationally) in 2015 Growth sector business profile across sectors very similar to Scotland profile, with slightly lower proportion of businesses in the Food and Drink sector in 2015 The Growth Sectors are: Food and Drink, Financial and Business Services, Life Sciences, Energy (including Renewables), Sustainable Tourism (Tourism related Industries) and Creative Industries (including Digital)

Population and Projections Population of 92,830 in 2015 1.7% of Scotland’s total population Small increase in population over the year (+1.4%), and higher than the national rate (+0.5%) Between 2005 and 2015, Stirling saw above average population growth (+6%, compared to +5% nationally) As with the national picture, growth was driven by those aged 65+ (+20%), while there was a more marked decline in 0-15 year olds than nationally Forecast Population Growth 2012-2037: Total population forecast to grow by 16% (+14,800), nearly double the national rate Working age population forecast to grow by 4% in contrast to a fall nationally

Workforce Trends Total employment in Stirling in 2014 = 44,800 No change from last year’s figure (2013-14), and performing below the regional (+1.7%) Scotland (+3.2%) and GB (+2.7%) increases In 2015, 49% work in higher level occupations - higher than the Scottish average of 42% 84% of employed population work in the private sector compared to 77% nationally 28% of employees work part-time, a slight fall from 32% the previous year, and slightly above the national average (26%) 7.3% of people in employment are in non-permanent jobs compared to only 5.4% nationally Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

Employment and Unemployment The employment rate in Stirling is 70% in 2015, 5ppts lower than the previous year, and now below the national rate (73%) 62% of employed residents work in Stirling 12% work elsewhere in the region 26% work outside the region Key areas for out-commuting include Glasgow (9%), Falkirk (8%) and Edinburgh (5%) The unemployment rate in Stirling was below the national average (5% v. 6%), unemployment increased by 0.6ppts whilst nationally it declined (-0.4ppts) over the same period 92% of 16-19 year olds in Stirling are participating in 2016, and 4% are not, a higher participation rate than across Scotland Unemployment = ILO measure, i.e. those who are available for and actively seeking work Unemployment rate: Unemployed as a percentage of the economically active population

Qualifications and Earnings In 2015, a higher proportion of working age adults in Stirling (47%) hold SCQF Level 7-12 qualifications than in Scotland (43%) and the UK (37%) Stirling’s resident and workplace earnings average £504 and £512 respectively, and are both only slightly below national levels

Modern Apprenticeships Schools Modern Apprenticeships Education and Training The secondary school roll in 2015 was 5,767, 2% of Scotland total 91% school leavers had a positive destination in 2015, compared to 92% across Scotland MA uptake increased marginally 0.2% from 2014/15 to 410 2% of national total in 2015/16 Construction most popular MA framework group, 20% uptake Heavily gender segregated - 99% male 76% achievement rate 2015/16 Fife

Further and Higher Education In 2015/16, at Forth Valley College there were 14,530 enrolments 5% of Scotland’s total 84% FE and 16% HE Top three subjects: Full-time: Engineering, Care, Business, management & administration Part-time: Engineering, Special Programmes, Construction 69% successful completion of FE courses There were over 10,000 students at the one HEI in the region, the University of Stirling, in 2014/15 Top three subjects: Biological Sciences, Business & Admin, Social Studies HE/FE data is available at Forth Valley regional level only, comprising Clackmannanshire, Falkirk and Stirling. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

Jobs and Skills Changes (1) Total employment (jobs) is forecast to increase by 0.2% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, the same as the equivalent rate expected for Scotland as a whole. Such growth equates to 700 more jobs in the region by 2024. Administrative and support and professional, scientific and technical activities are expected to enjoy growth of 400 and 300 jobs respectively over the forecast. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the manufacturing and public sectors. The number of jobs within manufacturing and public administration and defence are both expected to fall by 300 jobs over the forecast. Forecast Demand for Jobs (2016-2024) Total Employment Growth Stirling Employment % annual average change Change in total jobs (‘000s), 2016-2024 2002-2015 2016-2024 Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people). The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job. Source: ONS / Oxford Economics Glasgow

Jobs and Skills Changes (2) Replacement demand will result in 12,800 openings within Stirling over the forecast. Expansion demand is expected to result in 200 more openings between 2016-2024. Together with replacement demand, this will result in 13,000 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in professional and elementary occupations , with both experiencing replacement and expansion demand. The total requirement for workers in sales and customer service and skilled trades occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the 2016-24 period. Forecast Demand for Jobs (2016-2024) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

Implications for Skills Investment Planning

Stirling: Key Implications (1) . Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics Jobs growth has returned to Stirling in 2015, an increase of 1,100 jobs (2.5%) after it had stalled in 2014. Stirling experienced significant job losses between 2009 and 2011, proportionately more so than for Scotland, and there are still 400 fewer jobs than in 2009. Many parts of Scotland have returned to pre-recession job levels, unlike Stirling. Job gains in 2015 were greatest in the accommodation & food services sector (+600), education (+500), health (+200), and the higher value added services of information & communications (+200) and finance & insurance (+200). At the same time employment fell in business administration & support services (-400). The accommodation & food services sector is now the largest employment sector in Stirling, alongside health, 1.5 times more concentrated than for Scotland, although many will be lower paid and lower value added jobs. Business numbers have continued to grow strongly, although below the Scotland rate, and overall output slipped back in 2014. Stirling had been making good progress in making the transition to a more knowledge-based economy, and recent evidence is that these trends are re-emerging. Glasgow

Stirling: Key Implications (2) . Skills demand and supply The population grew slightly faster than Scotland’s rate over the last 10 years and is forecast to grow at twice the national rate to 2037, by almost 15,000. There will be a small increase in those of working age, but the majority will be retirees. Most future jobs demand will be replacement demand. This is greatest amongst professional and elementary occupation, half of the openings, although there will also be the need for sales & customer services and skilled trades. Almost 1 in 4 out-commutes from Stirling and there remains competition for higher skilled workers from Glasgow and Edinburgh. Fewer than average go into Further Education from school in Stirling, and more into Higher Education. The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect the composition of the regional economy – construction, health & social care (with sport), retail & customer services and hospitality & tourism. Computing & ICT MA activity is also above the Scotland average, although this is still just 6% of Stirling MAs. Glasgow

Stirling: Key Implications (3) . Recommended Areas of Focus Priorities for Stirling include: Increasing the number of local jobs. Although 2015 job increases were good, there are still fewer jobs in Stirling than in 2009. Continuing to increase the quality of jobs. Stirling has started the transition to a knowledge-based economy, and momentum needs to sustained. Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills. There will continue to be strong completion for professional skills from Glasgow and Edinburgh Meeting the skills needs of employers. There are important local sectors, including health and tourism. The growing ageing population will have care needs. Local skills activity should continue to be focused on employer demand. A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations. Progression needs engendered and supported. A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this. Glasgow