1. Skills Assessments
Midlothian
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for Midlothian
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slidepack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
Midlothian is a small local authority area to the south of Edinburgh. It benefits from its proximity to Edinburgh, with over half of employed residents travelling to the city to work
The Borders Railway has improved its already good transport links
As part of the Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Deal Region, it stands to benefit from significant investment over the next 20 years
The decline of traditional industries had a detrimental impact although it is now a centre of excellence for life and biosciences, with an international profile

9. Business Trends
Growth of the business base exceeded the Scottish rate (9.7% v. 7.3%) in 2015
195 new businesses, including: Professional, Scientific and Technical (+45) and Construction (+35)
99% of businesses are small or micro (<50 employees)
30 businesses employ 50+ people
253 businesses per 10,000 population compared to 313 nationally
14.6% self employment in Midlothian, higher than the national figure (10.8%)
Number of Growth Sector businesses in 2015 grew by 4% to 895, a similar growth rate as nationally
Overall underrepresentation of Growth Sectors
40% of businesses and 20% of employment are in Growth Sectors, lower than the proportions nationally (46% and 28% respectively)
Three times as many Growth Sector businesses in the Life Sciences sector than nationally
The Growth Sectors are: Food and Drink, Financial and Business Services, Life Sciences, Energy (including Renewables), Sustainable Tourism (Tourism related Industries) and Creative Industries (including Digital)

10. Population and Projections
Population of 87,390 in 2015
1.6% of Scotland’s total population
Small increase in population over the year (+1.4%) and higher than the national growth (+0.5%)
Over the past ten years ( ), Midlothian saw above-average population growth (+9%, compared to +5% nationally)
As with the national picture, growth has been driven by those over the age of 65, although there has been growth across all age groups locally
Forecast Population Growth, :
Total population forecast to grow by 18% (+14,850), double the Scotland wide rate, and the working age population is forecast to grow by 2% compared to a fall nationally

11. Workforce Trends
Total employment in Midlothian is 29,000
2.1% increase from 2013 to 2014, lower than national (3.2%) figure
39% work in higher level occupations in 2015, slightly below the Scottish average of 42%
77% of employed population work in private sector, same as national figure
32% of employees work part-time, a slight increase from 30% since last year, and above national average (26%)
4.3% of people in employment are in non-permanent jobs, lower than the national figure (5.4%)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate in Midlothian is 75% in 2015, the same as the previous year, and above the national rate (73%)
36% of employed residents work in Midlothian
57% work elsewhere in the region
Just 6% work outside the region
The key area for out-commuting is Edinburgh City (53% of employed residents)
The unemployment rate in Midlothian was below the national average (4% v. 6%) in 2015, unemployment fell by approximately -2ppts which was greater than the national decline (-0.4ppts) over the same period
89% of year olds in Midlothian are participating, and 4% are not, broadly mirroring Scotland’s participation rates
Unemployment = ILO measure, i.e. those who are available for and actively seeking work
Unemployment rate: Unemployed as a percentage of the economically active population

13. Qualifications and Earnings
In 2015, at 40%, a lower proportion of working age adults in Midlothian hold SCQF Level 7-12 qualifications than in Scotland (43%), though this is higher than the UK (37%)
Midlothian’s resident and workplace earnings averages (£497 and £511 respectively) are both below the national levels

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 5,501, 1.8% of Scotland total
93% school leavers had a positive destination in 2015, compared to 92% nationally
MA uptake increased marginally by 0.5% from 2014/15 to 425
2% of national total in 2015/16
Construction most popular framework group, 19% uptake
Heavily gender segregated - 99% male
70% achievement rate 2015/16

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at Edinburgh College and Newbattle Abbey College there were 20,585 enrolments
7% of Scotland’s total
77% FE and 23% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Business, management & administration, Engineering, Art & design
Part-time: Languages & ESOL, Care, Engineering
65% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 60,000 students at the five HEIs in the region in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Business & Admin, Subjects Allied to Medicine and Biological Sciences
HE/FE data is available at Edinburgh, East and Midlothian regional level only and comprises data for City of Edinburgh, East Lothian and Midlothian. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to increase by 0.6% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, an equivalent rate of 0.2% growth is expected for Scotland as a whole. Such growth equates to 1,300 more jobs in the region by Construction and professional, scientific and technical roles are expected to have growth of 600 and 400 respectively over the period. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the public and manufacturing sectors. The number of jobs within public administration and defence and manufacturing and expected to fall by 200 jobs each over the forecast.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Midlothian Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 12,000 openings within Midlothian over the forecast period. Expansion demand is expected to grow by 1,200 openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 13,200 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in professional and caring, leisure and other service occupations. The total requirement for workers in skilled trades, administrative and secretarial and elementary occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. Midlothian: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
The jobs recovery in Midlothian continued in 2015, although the pace of employment growth slowed. There were 300 new jobs in Midlothian in 2015, a 1% increase, at a time of limited jobs growth across Scotland. There were 2,500 (9%) more jobs in Midlothian than in 2009.
There were sector shifts in There were job increases in health (+300), arts, entertainment & related (+300), accommodation & food services (+200) which is a regional growth sector, education, property and the higher value added professional, scientific & technical services. At the same time there were losses in the locally important construction sector (-400), retail (-200), business administration & support (-100), motor trades (-100), as well as production (-100) which is in long-term jobs decline.
The business base continues to grow strongly, and at rates above the Scotland average, and recent output growth has also been above average. Output per worker is broadly equal to the Scotland rate. Midlothian has benefited from the strength of the City of Edinburgh economy and must continue to ensure as many participate in the economic recovery as possible. Although still low, the numbers amongst the most deprived 10% in Scotland has increased over the last 10 years.
Glasgow

20. Midlothian: Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
The population has grown at almost twice the Scotland rate over the last 10 years, and is forecast to continue to do so, although there will be a more modest increase in those of working age as the population ages. More than half commute into Edinburgh and there will always be a challenge to grow local jobs.
Those in professional roles equals the Scotland average, many accessing jobs in Edinburgh. There are more local jobs in skilled trades, and in administrative & secretarial and care roles and there is expected to be strong replacement demand. Further jobs growth is expected to 2024 (+1,100), mainly in construction, professional services and retail, but replacement demand will be far higher (more than 12,000) and the challenge for Midlothian will be meet local employer demand, which will include professional and elementary roles.
Almost four in ten go into employment from school, higher than the national average.
The top MA frameworks by take-up were construction, health & social care (with sport) and retail & customer services.
Glasgow

21. Midlothian: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for Midlothian include:
Continuing to increase the number of local jobs. Job gains in Midlothian have been positive over recent years. Individuals need to be supported to access these.
Increasing the quality of jobs. There is still a reliance on certain sectors including construction. Consolidating employment in higher value added professional and related services will further strengthen the local jobs market.
Encouraging a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills.
Meeting the skills needs of employers. There are important local sectors, including construction, health and business services. Local skills activity should continue to be focused on employer demand.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations, as well as care and administration. Progression needs encouraged and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow