1. Edinburgh City December 2016
Skills Assessments
Edinburgh City
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for Edinburgh City
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slidepack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
Edinburgh acts as an economic hub, attracting commuters from other parts of Scotland to high value job opportunities.
It generates 14% of Scotland’s GVA but accounts for only 9% of the population. Its productivity levels are the highest in Scotland
The city has a strong and international reputation in finance and insurance. It is home to a number of large financial sector employers including Standard Life and the Royal Bank of Scotland
Despite its relative affluence, there are areas of persistent poverty

9. Business Trends
Growth of the business base exceeds the Scottish trend rate (8.3% v. 7.3%) (2010 – 2015)
1,320 new businesses in 2015 including: Business Administration and Support services (+245), Professional, Scientific and Technical (+240) and Information and Communication (+170)
99% of businesses are small or micro (<50 employees)
110 employ more than 250 people
346 businesses per 10,000 population compared to 313 nationally
10.8% self employment in Edinburgh, same as the national figure (10.8%)
Number of Growth Sector businesses grew to 9,375 in 2015, and has a higher representation than nationally
35% of total employment in Growth Sectors (compared to 28% nationally) (2014)
Growth Sector businesses concentrated in Financial and Business Services and under represented in Food and Drink and Energy (2015)
The Growth Sectors are: Food and Drink, Financial and Business Services, Life Sciences, Energy (including Renewables), Sustainable Tourism (Tourism related Industries) and Creative Industries (including Digital)

10. Population and Projections
Population of 498,800
9.3% of Scotland’s total population (2015)
Small increase in population over the year (+1.3%) and higher than the national rate (+0.5%)
Over the past ten years Edinburgh saw above average population growth (+11% compared to +5% nationally)
Similar levels of growth across all age groups compared to Scotland picture, where growth has been driven by those over the age of 65
Forecast Population Growth, :
Total population forecast to grow by 28% (+136,300), over three times the Scotland wide rate, and working age population by 21% in contrast to a fall nationally

11. Workforce Trends
Total employment in Edinburgh = 321,000 (13% of Scottish total)
2.4% increase over the year, in line with the region but lower than Scotland (3.2%) and GB (2.7%)
53% work in higher level occupations (2015), well above Scottish average of 42%
76% of employed population work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally
24% of employees work part-time, a slight fall from 25% since last year, and below national average (26%)
7.4% of people in employment are in non-permanent jobs, higher than the national figure (5.4%)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate in Edinburgh is 73%, 1ppt lower than the previous year, and in line with the national profile (2015)
86% of employed residents work in Edinburgh
5% work elsewhere in the region
9% work outside the region
Key areas for out-commuting include West Lothian (3%), Midlothian (3%) and East Lothian (2%)
The unemployment rate in Edinburgh was below the national average (5% v. 6%), unemployment increased by 1.2ppts whilst nationally it declined (-0.4ppts) over the same period ( )
90% of year olds in Edinburgh are participating, and 4% are not, mirroring Scotland’s participation rates (2016)
Unemployment = ILO measure, i.e. those who are available for and actively seeking work
Unemployment rate: Unemployed as a percentage of the economically active population

13. Qualifications and Earnings
At 57%, a much higher proportion of working age adults in Edinburgh hold SCQF qualifications at levels 7-12 than in Scotland and the UK overall (43% and 37% respectively) (2015)
Edinburgh’s resident and workplace earnings averages (£575 and £554 respectively) are both higher than the national levels

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 18,163, 6.5% of Scotland total
92% school leavers had a positive
destination in 2015, in line with the national average
MA uptake increased by 8% from 2014/15 to 1,610
6% of national total in 2015/16
Sports, Health and Social care is the most popular MA framework group, 15% uptake
Gender segregated - 79% female
74% MA achievement rate 2015/16

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at Edinburgh College and Newbattle Abbey College there were 20,585 enrolments
7% of Scotland’s total
77% FE and 23% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Business, management & administration, Engineering, Art & design
Part-time: Languages & ESOL, Care, Engineering
65% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 60,000 students at the five HEIs in the region in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Business & Admin, Subjects Allied to Medicine and Biological Sciences
HE/FE data is available at Edinburgh, East and Midlothian regional level only and comprises data for City of Edinburgh, East Lothian and Midlothian. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to increase by 0.7% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, an equivalent rate of 0.2% growth is expected for Scotland as a whole. Such growth equates to 21,100 additional jobs in the region by Professional, scientific and technical and administrative and support activities are expected to enjoy growth of 4,100 and 4,000 jobs respectively over the forecast. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the public and manufacturing sectors both of which are expected to fall by 900 jobs each.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Edinburgh City Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 130,900 openings within Edinburgh City over the forecast. Expansion demand is expected to grow by 15,900 openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 146,800 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in professional occupations, experiencing both expansion and replacement demand. The total requirement for workers in administrative and secretarial and elementary occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period, again experiencing both expansion and replacement demand.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. City of Edinburgh: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
The strong jobs growth in 2014 continued in 2015, with 3,000 new jobs, equivalent to 1%, at a time of limited jobs growth across Scotland. There are now 10,000 more jobs in the City than three times the Scotland rate of increase.
There were some sector shifts in The greatest increases were in accommodation & food services (+4,200), health (+1,500) and in the higher value added sectors of information & communications (+1,100) and professional, scientific and technical services (+600). At the same time there were job losses in retail (-1,000) and construction (-800), as well as the important finance & insurance sector (-1,900) and business administration & support services (-1,300). The strength of the City as an administrative centre and for tourism has consolidated, and in high tech services, but its strength as a financial services employment hub lessened.
The business base continues to grow strongly, and at rates above the Scotland average, although recent overall output growth has been below average. The City of Edinburgh faces the challenge of maintaining jobs growth, whilst further increasing the proportion of higher value added services.
Glasgow

20. City of Edinburgh: Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
The population has grown at twice the Scotland rate over the last 10 years, and is forecast to increase further by some 28% (136,000) by The working age population is also set to increase by 21%, requiring continued jobs growth.
Almost three in 10 are employed in professional occupations, far higher than the Scotland average, and there are forecast to be more than 50,000 openings in these occupations to 2024, some new jobs and the majority via replacement demand. There will be strong requirements for business and public service, scientific and technology professionals, administrative and sales occupations, and elementary roles. There will also be openings in the care and leisure occupations, indicating strong future employer demand.
A slightly higher than Scotland average number go into employment from school.
The top MA frameworks by take-up are health & social care (with sport), hospitality & tourism, construction, retail & customer services, administration & related. Finance, other services (with ICT professionals) are also well represented.
Glasgow

21. City of Edinburgh: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for the City of Edinburgh include:
Maintaining and increasing higher level skills supply. There is strong jobs growth forecast in the region, with continuing high demand for professional occupations.
Meeting the needs of employers in key sectors. These include accommodation & food services requiring hospitality and tourism skills, care, financial services, administration & related occupations, linked to business administration & support and the professional, scientific and technical sector.
Encourage further employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills.
Increase the pool of labour. There is a need to ensure all have the chance to participate in the City’s success.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper levels. Progression needs engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
A need to meet the region’s infrastructure needs. This will require adequate construction, engineering and professional skills.
Glasgow