1. North Lanarkshire December 2016
Skills Assessments
North Lanarkshire
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for North Lanarkshire
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland (SDS), Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group (SLAED).
Purpose:
Support SFC, regional colleges, strategic bodies and college boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for academic years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of seven workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slidepack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
An area adjusting to the decline of traditional industries and experiencing on-going economic transformation, and recovery from impact of recession
Benefiting from its central location at the hub of Scotland’s transport network with easy access to jobs and markets in the central belt
The seven towns in North Lanarkshire, along with Ravenscraig, are a focus for local development but also comprise pockets of disadvantage where barriers to employment persist for certain groups

9. Business Trends
Growing business base and increasing at a faster rate than nationally (10% v 7%) (2010 – 2015)
610 new businesses in 2015: including Professional, Scientific and Technical (+95) and Business Administration and Support Services (+95)
87% businesses have 0-9 employees (Scotland 88%)
30 businesses employ more than 250 people
Business density lower than national average (203 versus 313 per 10,000 population)
Self-employment at 8.2% versus 10.8% national average
Growth Sector share of business base below Scottish average but increasing
6% growth in
Concentration of Growth Sector businesses in Financial and Business Services, Sustainable Tourism and Creative Industries (2015)
Only 19% of employment in Growth Sectors versus 28% national average (2014)

10. Population and Projections
Population of 338,260
6% of Scotland’s total population (2015)
Population has remained static over the past year, whilst small increase nationally (+0.5%)
Over the past ten years (2005 – 2015) North Lanarkshire had below average population growth (3.4% v 5.1% nationally)
Ageing population, with reduction in 0-15 year olds and large increase in proportion of those 65 years and over
Population change
Forecast Population Growth, :
Total population to increase by small margin to 2037
However, proportion that are working age will drop substantially (-13%), at a faster rate than nationally (-4%)

11. Workforce Trends
Total employment in North Lanarkshire in 2014, 133,300 (5% of Scottish total)
Employment recovering strongly with 7% growth from 2013 (3% Scotland)
Stronger recovery than neighbouring South Lanarkshire (-2%) and East Dunbartonshire (3%)
32% work in higher level occupations (42% nationally) (2015)
74% employment in private sector (77% nationally)
23% in part-time employment (26% nationally)
4.3% in non-permanent employment (5.3% nationally)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
Employment rate of 71%, slightly lower than the national rate (73%) (2015)
53% working in home LA (moderate level of out-commuting)
11% working in rest of region (36% outside RSA)
Key areas for out-commuting are Glasgow City (22%) and South Lanarkshire (11%)
The unemployment rate in North Lanarkshire was above the national average (7% v. 6%), unemployment fell by -0.2ppts which was less than the national decline (-0.4ppts) from
89% of 16–19 year olds are participating and 5% are not, a slightly lower rate of participation than nationally (2016)

13. Qualifications and Earnings
At 33%, a much lower proportion of the working age population hold SCQF 7+ qualifications (10% lower the Scottish average of 43%) (2015)
Resident (£511) and workplace (£499) earnings slightly lower than the national average

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The school roll in 2015 was 20,559, 7.3% of Scotland total
92% school leavers had a positive
destination in 2015, in-line with the national trend
MA uptake increased 3% from 2014/15, to 2,145
8% of national total in 2015/16
Construction most popular MA framework group
20% of uptake
Heavily gender segregated - 99% male
Fife

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at New College Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire College there were 21,990 enrolments
8% of Scotland’s total
79% FE and 21% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Care, Hairdressing, beauty and comp therapies, Engineering
Part-time: Care, Special programmes, Construction
61% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 4,000 students at the one HEI in the region, UWS Hamilton, in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Subjects Allied to Medicine, Business & Admin, Biological Sciences
HE/FE data is available at Lanarkshire regional level only and comprises of data from East Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to increase by 0.1% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, an equivalent rate of 0.2% growth is expected for Scotland as a whole. Such growth equates to 700 more jobs in the region by Administrative and support and construction and are expected to enjoy growth of 1,600 and 1,400 respectively over the forecast. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the manufacturing and public sectors. The number of jobs within manufacturing is expected to fall by 1,500 jobs over the forecast, whilst those in public administration and defence will fall by 1,100 jobs.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
North Lanarkshire Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 40,100 openings within North Lanarkshire over the forecast. Expansion demand is expected to grow by 600 openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 40,700 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in elementary and professional occupations, with both experiencing replacement and expansion demand. The total requirement for workers in sales and customer services and caring, leisure and other service occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. North Lanarkshire: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
The strong jobs recovery in North Lanarkshire that had gathered pace between 2011 and 2014 went into reverse in 2015, with a loss of 2,700 jobs, 2% of the total. This comes at a time of limited jobs growth across Scotland, illustrating the fragility of the economic recovery. There are just 1% more local jobs than in 2009.
There were also sector shifts in Job losses were greatest in production (-1,200), construction (-800), health (-800) and retail (-400). There were also losses in business administration & support (-400) and in the higher value added financial and professional services. At the same time, accommodation & food services jobs increased (+700). Although still the second largest employment sector, there continues to be a shift from production to services.
The business base continues to grow, and at rates above the Scotland average, and overall output growth has also been stronger, even if output per worker remains just below the Scotland level. North Lanarkshire has the twin challenge of maintaining (and increasing) competitiveness in the manufacturing sector with continuing to make the transition to a knowledge-based economy. Progress in the latter has slowed.
Glasgow

20. North Lanarkshire: Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
The population has increased over the last 10 years but at a rate below the Scotland average. It is not forecast to grow, whereas Scotland’s population will increase. There will be a 13% smaller working age population by More than a third commutes outside Lanarkshire, with a challenge to grow the local job base.
More are employed in sales & customer services, care and as operatives than the Scotland average. There will be strong replacement demand in these sectors, as well as elementary roles, some 40,000 openings overall despite limited forecast overall jobs growth. There is a challenge to replace forecast job reductions in manufacturing and the public services with higher value added services, whilst meeting employer demand in strong existing sectors, including business services.
28% go into work from school, in line with the national average.
The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect the local economy – construction, administration & related, health & social care (with sport), retail & customer services and transport & logistics, where there is strong local employment concentration. There are fewer in engineering & energy.
Glasgow

21. North Lanarkshire: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for North Lanarkshire include:
Increasing the number of local jobs. Recent job losses across several sectors reflect the weakness of the economic recovery. Manufacturing and public service jobs will need replaced.
Increasing the quality of jobs. There is a need to continue to make the transition to a more knowledge-based economy, and equip the workforce to access these jobs.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills.
Meeting the skills needs of employers. There are important local sectors, including manufacturing, health and business services. Local skills activity should continue to be focused on employer demand.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest for elementary, care, sales and administrative occupations. Progression needs engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow