1. West Dunbartonshire December 2016
Skills Assessments
West Dunbartonshire
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for West Dunbartonshire
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slide pack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
A diverse area including the densely populated urban area of Clydebank, adjacent to Glasgow City, the smaller towns of Dumbarton, and the Vale of Leven
In common with older industrial areas West Dunbartonshire has suffered from the decline in shipbuilding, engineering and manufacturing
Associated with serious employment challenges are persistent high levels of inequality and long-standing health inequalities

9. Business Trends
Growth in the business base over the past year (2015) out-paced national growth (9.4% v 7.3%)
145 new businesses, distributed across a number of sectors
86% businesses have 0-9 employees (Scotland 88%)
No businesses have more than 250 employees
Very low business density of 189 per 10,000 population compared to 313 nationally
Self-employment low and dropped to 6.5% (10.8% nationally)
Business in Growth Sectors in 2015below Scottish average (38% compared to 46% nationally
High concentrations of businesses in sustainable tourism (32% v 19% nationally) and low representation of food and drink businesses (7% v 23% nationally)
21% of employment is in Growth Sectors, compared to 28% nationally

10. Population and Projections
Total population of 89,590 in 2015
2% of Scotland
Slight decline in the population over the past year (-0.1%) whilst growth nationally (+0.5%)
Decline in the population over the past ten years whilst growth nationally (-2% compared to +5%
Those aged 65 years+ increasing as share of total population.
Accompanied by a significant drop in share of younger age groups year olds
Population change
Forecast Population Growth,
Total population set to decline by 7,300 between
Working age population set to decline by almost a quarter during this period

11. Workforce Trends
Total employment in W. Dunbartonshire = 30,300 (1% of Scottish total)
No change from previous year, and significantly lower growth than West region (5%) and national figure (3%)
33% work in higher level occupations in 2015, well below Scottish average of 42%
63% of employed population work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally
28% of employees work part-time, a slight fall from 29% since last year, and above the national average (26%)
4.7% of people in employment are in non-permanent jobs, lower than the national figure (5.3%)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
Employment rate of 69% in 2015, below that of Scotland (73%), although increasing over the past year
47% working in home LA
6% working in rest of West RSA
Out-commuting to Glasgow City dominates (31.2%) followed by Argyll & Bute (7.9%)
The unemployment rate in West Dunbartonshire was above the national average (7% v. 6%) in 2015, unemployment fell by -1.3ppts which was greater than the national decline (-0.4ppts) over the same period
Lower levels of participation than nationally in 2016, with 88% of year olds participating (compared to 90% nationally), whilst 6% do not participate

13. Qualifications and Earnings
In 2015, at 32%, a much lower proportion of working age adults in W. Dunbartonshire hold SCQF qualifications at levels 7-12 than in Scotland (43%)
W. Dunbartonshire’s resident and workplace earnings are similar to national average (c. £500)

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 5,158, 1.8% of Scotland total
89% school leavers had a positive destination in 2015, below the national rate, 92%
MA uptake increased by 12%, from 2014/15 to 615
2% of national total in 2015/16
Construction most popular MA framework group
14% of uptake
Heavily gender segregated, 97% male
75% achievement rate 2015/16

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at West College Scotland, there were 25,925 enrolments
9% of Scotland’s total
87% FE and 13% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Hairdressing, Beauty & Comp therapies, Care and Business, management
Part-time: Care, Special Programmes & Business, management
64% successful completion of FE courses
There were 7,800 students at the University of West Scotland Paisley Campus in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Subjects Allied to Medicine, Business & Admin Studies and Computer Sciences
HE/FE data is available at West regional level only and comprises data for Inverclyde, Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA
Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to decrease by 0.4% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, an equivalent rate of 0.2% growth expected for Scotland as a whole. Administrative and support and professional, scientific and technical activities are expected to enjoy growth of 100 jobs each in the region over the forecast. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the public and manufacturing sectors. The number of jobs within and public administration and defence is expected to fall by 500 jobs and manufacturing expected to fall by 200 jobs over the forecast.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
West Dunbartonshire Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 16,100 openings within West Dunbartonshire over the forecast. Expansion demand is expected to result in 1,100 less openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 15,000 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in elementary and professional occupations , with both experiencing replacement and expansion demand. The total requirement for workers in sales and customer service and skilled trades occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. West Dunbartonshire: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
The signs of a belated and much needed jobs recovery that were emerging in 2013 and 2014 gathered pace in West Dunbartonshire in 2015, with 1,200 new jobs, and a 4% increase on 2014 at a time of very limited jobs growth across Scotland as a whole. Despite this, there are still 4% fewer jobs than in 2009.
There have been sector shifts during this time. There were increases in accommodation & food services (+800), health (+400) and the high value added finance & insurance sector (+400). At the same time, there was further contraction in production (-300), a sector in long-term employment decline. However, some 23% of all employees still work in the health sector and West Dunbartonshire remains overly reliant on the public sector, where job losses of 1,000 are forecast over the period to Despite recent increases, there continues to be the challenge to grow private sector jobs.
Nonetheless, the business base in West Dunbartonshire has shown strong recent growth, including business and professional services, although business density remains well below the Scotland average. Output has fallen since the recession, although recent job gains may improve this. Further growing small businesses is one route to employment growth.
Glasgow

20. West Dunbartonshire : Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
The population has fallen in the last 10 years at a time of growth across Scotland as a whole. Forecasts indicate this will fall further by 2037, including a loss in the working age population of 25%. Reversing this depopulation is important for the local economy.
More than the Scotland average are in elementary, sales and care occupations, and fewer in professional occupations. There is expected to be strongest replacement demand in these occupations with some 16,000 openings to Almost a third out commute to Glasgow, many to access higher skilled jobs.
A slightly lower proportion than the Scotland average go into employment from school.
The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect the local economy – construction, health and social care (with sport), hospitality & tourism and administration & related.
Glasgow

21. West Dunbartonshire : Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for West Dunbartonshire include:
Reversing depopulation and growing local jobs. Population loss has been closely related to the loss of traditional sector employment including manufacturing, and more local jobs will be the biggest determinant of future population growth.
Reducing reliance on public sector jobs. Growing the private sector employment base and local higher value added services should continue to be a priority.
Meeting the skills needs of employers. Important local sectors include health, administration, sales and customer services. There will be strong replacement demand for these. Local skills activity should continue to be focused on employer demand and raising workforce skills, which are weaker than the national average.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations, also care and sales. Progression needs to be engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow