1. Skills Assessments
Moray
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments Key Data for Moray
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slidepack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
Located between Inverness and Aberdeenshire / Aberdeen City - which have generally been areas of economic buoyancy
Two large military bases, whose military personnel are not included in employment datasets
Manufacturing a significant contributor to employment - notably whisky and food products
Lower value added of some key activities has been a longstanding issue

9. Business Trends
Growth of the business base has lagged the national average over the past year (6.8% v. 7.3%)
Lower levels of growth since 2010
+200 businesses in 2015 including Professional, scientific & technical (+55) and Business administration & support services (+55)
98% of businesses are small or micro (<50 employees), in line with the national average
10 businesses employ 250+ people (0.3% of total)
Business density slightly higher than the national level (328 per 10,000 population v. 313)
Self employment rate is the same as Scotland (10.8%)
The number of Moray Growth Sector businesses increased by 3% to 1,480 in 2015
Representation very similar to national picture
31% of Moray employment is in Growth Sectors, higher than in Scotland (28%) (2014)
Growth Sector businesses focused in Food and Drink sector; particularly low representation of Financial and Business Services and Creative Industries businesses (2015)

10. Population and Projections
Population of 95,510
2% of Scotland’s total population (2015)
Increase in population over the year (0.8%), slightly above national growth (0.5%)
In the ten years to 2015 Moray’s population grew by 6% (Scotland 5%)
That included an increase in the working age group of 2.7% (Scotland 3.7%)
Population change
Forecast Population Growth, :
Total population forecast to fall by 2% compared to 9% growth in Scotland
Moray working age population projected to decline by 16%

11. Workforce Trends
Total employment in Moray = 36,000 (1% of Scottish total)
Return to pre-recession employment levels
5.9% increase over the last year. Above the Highlands and Islands (3.4%), Scotland (3.2%) and GB (2.7%)
33% work in higher level occupations, much lower than Scotland (42%) (2015)
76% work in private sector (Scotland = 77%)
27% of the employed population work part time (Scotland 26%)
3.5% of people in employment are in non-permanent jobs, below the national figure (5.4%)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate in Moray is 73%, the same as Scotland, although 3ppt down from previous year (2014 – 2015)
87% of Moray residents work in the local authority area
4% work elsewhere in the Highlands and Islands (largely in Highland)
9% of residents commute to work outside the Highlands and Islands - mostly to Aberdeenshire and Aberdeen City
The unemployment rate in Moray was below the national average (4% v. 6%), unemployment fell by -0.9ppts which was greater than the national decline (-0.4ppts) over the same period (2014 – 2015)
91% of year olds in Moray are participating, 1ppt above the Scottish rate. 4% are not participating, the same as Scotland (2016)

13. Qualifications and Earnings
At 33%, a much lower proportion of working age adults in Moray hold SCQF qualifications at levels 7-12 than in Scotland (43%) and in the UK (37%) (2015)
Both workplace and residents earnings below the Scottish average (both approximately £490 per week)

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 5, % of Scotland total
90% school leavers had a positive destination in 2015, compared with 92% nationally
MA uptake increased by 7% from 2014/15 to 490
2% of national total in 2015/16
Construction most popular framework group, 24% uptake
Heavily gender segregated - 98% male
77% achievement rate 2015/16

15. Further and Higher Education
Scotland’s colleges and universities play a major role in developing a skilled workforce. In the Highlands and Islands, the University of the Highlands and Islands (UHI) provides educational opportunities to residents and also attracts students to the region.
Due to the unique and complex tertiary nature of the University of Highlands and Islands, data for UHI and its associated campuses has not been included.
The Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and Skills Development Scotland (SDS) are working with UHI to develop the most appropriate way of presenting these complex data sets.

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to decrease by 0.2% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, an equivalent rate of 0.2% growth is expected for Scotland as a whole. Such a fall equates to 1,000 less jobs in the region by Construction and professional, scientific and technical activities are expected to enjoy growth of 200 jobs each over the forecast. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the manufacturing and public sectors. The number of jobs within manufacturing is expected to fall by 500 jobs over the forecast, whilst those in public administration and defence will fall by 300 jobs.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Moray Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 16,200 openings within Moray over the forecast. Expansion demand is expected to fall by -700 openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 15,500 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in elementary and skilled trades occupations , with both driven by replacement demand. The total requirement for workers in sales and customer services and professional occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. Moray: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
The strong jobs recovery evident in Moray in 2014 fell back again in 2015, with a loss of 600 jobs, or 1.6%. The number of jobs has fluctuated since the global downturn. The number of jobs however is now 300 fewer than in 2009.
There have also been sector shifts. Job losses were greatest in health (-300), business administration & support (-300) and in agriculture, forestry & fishing (-100), as well as in the higher value added professional, scientific & technical services sector (-100). At the same time there were job increases in accommodation & food services (+500), the arts & related sector (+100) and in the strongly represented production sector (+100). Almost 20% of Moray employment is in production, principally food & drink. There is under-representation in professional and related services.
The business base has started to grow more strongly, although at a rate below the Scotland average. Overall output has also started to increase after being flat for some time, with output per worker slightly below the Scotland average. The challenge is to diversify the private sector employment base whilst retaining competitiveness in production.
Glasgow

20. Moray: Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
Population growth has been just above the Scotland rate of growth over the last 10 years, although it is forecast to fall over the period to 2037 at a time of continued growth for Scotland as a whole. The working age population is expected to fall by 16%. Attracting and retaining young people is important.
Moray has more employed in skilled trades and elementary occupations than the Scotland average, and demand will be strong for these, as well as sales jobs, largely through replacement demand. There will also be strong replacement demand in professional occupations, where Moray is under-represented, and care.
A slightly higher proportion go into employment from school than the national average.
The top MA frameworks by take-up are construction, food & drink, health & social care (with sport) and hospitality & tourism and retail & customer services. Given the importance of the production sector more may have been expected in engineering and food & drink.
Glasgow

21. Moray: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for the Moray include:
Increasing the number of jobs. Despite the brief jobs recovery there are fewer jobs than 2009.
Increasing the quality and diversity of jobs. There is a strong reliance on the production sector. Diversification, particularly in the higher value added professional services will help strengthen the employment base.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills, including investment in young people. They also need an outward focus for new markets.
Meeting the skills needs of employers. There are important local sectors and occupations, including skilled trades linked to production and health. Local skills activity must be encouraged, and focused on employer demand.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest amongst the skilled trades, care and professional occupations. Progression needs engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow