1. RSA Insight Report: Supporting Slides
Tayside
comprising Angus, Dundee City and Perth and Kinross
Evidence Base Team
Glasgow

2. Contents Explanation of Thermometer Chart 1. The Tayside Region
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by Region 2015
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by RSA Local Authority 2015
Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base (2016)
Proportions of Businesses by Size Band (2016)
Business Births and Deaths per population ( ) and Business survival index ( )
Resident and Workplace Based Earnings 2016 (Median)
Tayside’s local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC1)
Deprivation Tayside by SIMD (2016) Deciles1 1-10
Population projections change by age band 2014 – 2039
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Region
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Local Authority
School Leaver Destinations 2009/10 and 2015/16

3. 2. Demand for Tayside Total Employment Projections (jobs) (2000-2027)
Total Employment (jobs) Projections by Status and Gender
Tayside Occupation Structure 2000 and 2017 (people 000s)
Total employment (people 000s) by occupation 2017 and 2027
Proportion of occupations at top middle and bottom of labour market 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (people 000s) Tayside
Proportion of total requirement at top middle and bottom of labour market
Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector 2017 and 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs 000s) Tayside
Total employment (jobs 000s) by key sector 2017 and 2027
Total Employment by qualification (000s) Tayside 2017 and 2027
Total Requirement by qualification (people 000s) Tayside

4. Explanation of thermometer/bullet chart
Although most people are familiar with a grouped bar chart:...
... a thermometer (or bullet) chart shows both bars in one, enabling more space to be used, which is more practical when dealing with more cluttered charts, showing 2 digit SIC and SOC for example.
The figures are the ‘thermometer’ and the 2027 figures act as the ‘mercury’. This enables a comparison to be made as to whether there has been a rise or fall compared with the 2017 baseline. And example is given below:
2027 figures less than 2017
2016 figure
2017
2024 figure
2027 figures more than 2017
2027

5. 1. The Tayside Region

6. Figure 2.1: Distribution of GVA (£million, constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by Region, 2015
Low GVA, High Productivity
High GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, Low Productivity
High GVA, Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

7. Figure 2.2: Distribution of GVA (£million, constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by RSA Local Authority, 2015
Low GVA, High Productivity
High GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, Low Productivity
High GVA, Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

8. Table 2.1: Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base, (2016)
Tayside Region
Angus
Dundee City
Perth and Kinross
Scotland
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
12%
17% 1%
16%
10%
Production 6% 7%
Construction
11%
Motor trades 3% 4%
Wholesale
Retail 8%
Transport & storage 2%
Accommodation & food services 9%
Information & communication 5%
Financial & insurance
Property
Professional, scientific & technical
19%
15%
14%
Business administration & support services
Public administration & defence 0%
Education
Health
Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services
Total
13,195
3,925
3,215
6,035
171,905
Source: UK Business Counts

9. Table 2.2: Proportions of businesses by size band, 2016
Angus
Dundee City
Perth and Kinross
Tayside
Scotland
0-9
89%
83%
88%
87%
10-49 9%
14%
10%
11%
50-249 1% 2%
250+
<1%
Source: UK Business Counts

10. Figure 2.3 Business births and deaths per population ( ) and Business Survival Index ( )
Recession
(2008-9)
Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-Year Population Estimates
Note: data for Business Survival Rates only available for in Evidence Base.

11. Table 2.3: Resident and workplace based earnings, 2016 (Median)
Area
Resident Earnings
Workplace Earnings
Difference between resident and workplace earnings
Dundee City
£404
£420
-£16
Perth and Kinross
£421
£413 £8
Angus
£406
£318
£88
Scottish Average
£434
£432 £2
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. Figures based on weekly pay of all workers.

12. Table 2.4: Tayside’s local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC1)
Angus
48%
29%
23%
Dundee
52%
25%
Perth and Kinross
64%
21%
15%
Source: Origin Destination statistics by Local Authority, open access (WB07BUK_la), UK Data Service
Note: denominator = total trips out of the local authority
1 See SOC Codes for Tayside here:

13. Figure 2.4: Deprivation in Tayside by SIMD (2016) Deciles2 1-10
Source: Scottish Government, 2016
2 See SIMD interactive map here:

14. Table 2.5: Population projections, change by age band 2014 – 2039
0 -15
16-29
30-49
50-64
65-74
75+
Total
Angus
-3%
-11%
-8%
-14%
14%
88% 3%
Dundee City 8%
-9%
11%
-5%
46% 6%
Perth and Kinross 1%
25%
92%
12%
Tayside 4%
-7%
17%
76% 7%
Scotland
-2%
-6%
27%
85%
Source: National Records of Scotland.

15. Figure 2.5: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Region
High Unemployment, High Inactivity
Low Unemployment, High Inactivity
High Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Low Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based), January to December 2016.
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean..

16. Figure 2.6: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Local Authority
Low Unemployment, High Inactivity
High Unemployment, High Inactivity
Low Unemployment, Low Inactivity
High Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based), January to December 2016.
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean. .

17. Table 2.6: School Leavers’ Destinations 2009/10 and 2015/16
Tayside
Angus
Dundee City
Perth and Kinross
Higher education (%)
2009/10
31%
34%
26%
33%
2015/16
36%
35%
Change 3% 1% 5% 2%
Further education (%)
30%
32%
24%
27%
28%
21%
-3%
-4%
-2%
Employment (%)
19%
16%
22% 6% 7%
Unemployed (%)
14%
12%
11% 8%
-7%
-5%
-8%
Unemployment Seeking and Unemployment Not Seeking.
Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset

18. 2. Demand for Skills in Tayside

19. Figure 3.1: Total Employment Projections (jobs), 2000-2027
Source: Oxford Economics

20. Figure 3.2: Total Employment (jobs) projections 2000-2027, by status and gender  
Source: Oxford Economics

21. Figure 3.3: Tayside Occupational Structure 2000 and 2017, (people 000s)
Source: Oxford Economics

22. Figure 3.4: Total employment (people, 000s) by occupation, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

23. Table 3.1: Proportion of occupations at top, middle and bottom of labour market, 2027
Tayside
Angus
Dundee City
Perth and Kinross
Higher level jobs
39%
33%
41%
Middle level jobs
31%
30%
Lower level jobs
34%
28%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

24. Table 3.2: Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (people 000s), Tayside,
Occupation
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Managers, directors & senior officials
-0.1
3.7
3.6
Professional occupations
0.05
16.9
Associate professional & technical occupations
6.6
6.5
Administrative & secretarial occupations
-0.5
6.2
5.7
Skilled trades occupations
7.6
Caring, leisure & other service occupations
0.5
5.8
6.3
Sales & customer service occupations
-0.2
12.9
12.6
Process, plant & machine operatives
-0.4
3.8
3.4
Elementary occupations
0.3
15.5
15.8
Total
79.0
78.5
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data.

25. Table 3.3: Proportion of total requirement at top, middle and bottom of labour market, 2017-2027
Tayside
Angus
Dundee City
Perth and Kinross
Higher level jobs
34%
31%
36%
Middle level jobs
25%
27%
20%
Lower level jobs
41%
42%
37%
46%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

26. Figure 3.5: Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data labels for 2027 only

27. Table 3.4: Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s), Tayside 2017-2027
Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
-0.4
9.3
8.9
Mining and quarrying
0.0
Manufacturing
-1.8
3.4
1.6
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning
-0.3
0.6
0.3
Water supply, sewerage, waste management
-0.1
1.5
1.4
Construction
1.2
3.8
5.0
Wholesale and retail trade
0.2
19.2
19.3
Transport and storage
4.7
Accommodation and food services
9.9
10.5
Information and communication
0.5
Financial and insurance activities
0.1
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific and technical
1.1
Admin. and support services
1.3
6.3
7.6
Public admin. and defence
-1.3
4.5
3.2
Education
-0.6
7.2
6.6
Human health and social work
10.4
Arts, entertainment and recreation
0.4
4.1
Other service activities
0.02
Total
84.8
86.0
Source: Oxford Economics

28. Figure 3.6: Total employment (jobs, 000s) by key sector, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data labels for 2027 only

29. Table 3.5 Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs 000s), Tayside, 2017-2027
Key Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Chemical sciences
-0.1
0.2
0.1
Creative industries
1.4
1.6
Construction
1.2
4.3
5.5
Energy
-0.2
0.8
0.6
Engineering
Food and drink
-0.5
9.4
8.8
Financial and business services
1.3
2.1
Health and social care
0.5
9.9
10.4
ICT/digital
0.4
Life sciences
Tourism
0.7
10.2
10.9
Total
2.6
39.4
42.0
Source: Oxford Economics

30. Figure 3.7: Employment by qualification (people, 000s), Tayside, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data labels for 2027 only

31. Table 3.6: Total Requirement by qualification (people, 000s), Tayside, 2017-2027
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
SCQF 11-12
0.3
3.5
3.8
SCQF 7-10
1.6
34.2
35.9
SCQF 6
-1.0
13.0
12.0
SCQF 5
0.0
18.0
17.9
SCQF 1-4
4.1
3.1
No Qualifications
-0.3
6.1
5.8
Total
-0.4
79.0
78.5
Source: Oxford Economics.