1. Orkney Islands December 2016
Skills Assessments
Orkney Islands
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for Orkney Islands
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slidepack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
Low levels of productivity
Limited employment in higher level occupations
Strong food and drink sector - primary production and manufacturing

9. Business Trends
In 2015 the business base grew by 5%, however growth lower than the national trend (7.3%)
+70 businesses including: Retail (+15), Professional, scientific & technical (+15), Business admin & support (+10)
Over 99% of businesses are small or micro (<50 employees), slightly above the national average (98%)
No businesses employ 250+ people
Business density rates well above the national average (683 per 10,000 population v. 313)
Self employment rate much higher than Scotland (14.3% v. 10.8%)
Higher representation of Growth Sector in 2015 businesses than at the national level
Orkney has a much higher share of total employment in Growth Sectors compared to Scotland (44% vs 28%)
Dominated by Food and Drink sector, accounting for 73% of all Growth Sector businesses

10. Population and Projections
Population of 21,670 in 2015
Less than 1% of Scotland’s total population
Between 2005 and 2015 Orkney’s population grew by 8% (Scotland 5%)
Growth driven by strong increase in 65+ age group. Working age population rose in Orkney
Population change
Forecast Population Growth, :
Total population forecast to increase in Orkney, although below the national rate
Working age population forecast to fall by 10%

11. Workforce Trends
Total employment in Orkney = 10,100 (1% of Scottish total)
At a 2.0% increase over the last year, growth remains below the Highlands and Islands (3.4%), Scotland (3.2%) and GB (2.7%)
32% work in higher level occupations in 2015, much lower than Scotland average (42%)
Much lower share of employment work in private sector 64% compared to Scotland (77%)
31% of the employed population work part time, higher than national average (26%)
11.3% of people in employment are in non-permanent jobs, much higher than the national figure (5.4%)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate in Orkney is 87% in 2015 , much higher than in Scotland (73%), although 2ppts down from previous year
Almost all residents work in their local authority area (97%)
Those working elsewhere mostly do so outside the Highlands and Islands – notably in Aberdeen City
Unemployment data for Orkney is not available
94% of years olds in Orkney are participating in 2016, 4ppt above the Scottish rate.
2% are not participating in, less than in Scotland (4%)

13. Qualifications and Earnings
In 2015,at 31%, Orkney has a lower proportion of working age adults holding SCQF qualifications at levels 7-12 than in Scotland (43%) and the UK (37%)
Both workplace and resident earnings in Orkney are below the Scottish averages

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 1,126, 0.4% of Scotland total
94% school leavers had a positive destination in 2015, compared with 92% nationally
MA uptake increased by 85% from 2014/15 to 120
0.5% of national total in 2015/16
Food & Drink is the most popular MA framework group
36% of uptake
Gender of apprentices - 60% male, 40% female
80% achievement rate 2015/16

15. Further and Higher Education
Scotland’s colleges and universities play a major role in developing a skilled workforce. In the Highlands and Islands, the University of the Highlands and Islands (UHI) provides educational opportunities to residents and also attracts students to the region.
Due to the unique and complex tertiary nature of the University of Highlands and Islands, data for UHI and its associated campuses has not been included.
The Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and Skills Development Scotland (SDS) are working with UHI to develop the most appropriate way of presenting these complex data sets.

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to decrease by 0.2% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, an equivalent rate of 0.2% growth is expected for Scotland as a whole. Such a fall equates to 300 less jobs in the region by Construction is expected to enjoy growth of 100 over the forecast. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the public sector. The number of jobs within public administration and defence is expected to fall by 100 jobs over the forecast.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Orkney Islands Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 2,300 openings within the Orkney Islands over the forecast. Expansion demand is expected to fall by 100 openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 2,200 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in elementary and skilled trades , with both driven by replacement demand. The total requirement for workers in sales and customer services and professional occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. Orkney Islands: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
The number of Orkney jobs continued to fall following the global financial crisis until 2013, losing 10% of employees in employment. Since then the jobs market has started to recover, and a further 200 jobs were added in Still, job levels are 4% below 2009 levels, when they have recovered for Scotland as a whole.
There have been some sector shifts. There were job increases in health (+200), public administration & defense (+100) and accommodation & food services (+100), a growth sector in Scotland. There were job losses in agriculture, forestry & fishing (-100). There is under-representation in professional and related services. Many are in non-traditional forms of employment which is twice the Scotland rate, reflecting higher levels of self-employment and part-time work.
Since 2013 the business base has also started to grow, although at a rate below the Scotland average. Overall output has increased although output per worker remains below the Scotland average, reflecting the sector composition in Orkney. The challenge is to continue to diversify the economic base and to grow the higher value added services sector, capitalising on quality of life benefits and technology improvements.
Glasgow

20. Orkney Islands: Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
Population growth has been faster than the Scotland average over the last 10 years, although it is predicted to grow more slowly than average to The working age population is forecast to fall, as the population profile ages, and attracting and retaining young people continues to be a priority.
More are employed as operatives than the Scotland average, and in elementary occupations and skilled trades, where replacement demand for jobs will be strongest. The forecast 2,400 replacement jobs will also include administration & secretarial jobs. Less than half the Scotland average are employed in professional occupations, and there is a challenge to grow this proportion.
More than one third goes into employment from school in Orkney, higher than the national average.
The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect the local economy –food & drink, construction and health & social care (with sport).
Glasgow

21. Orkney Islands: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for the Orkney Islands include:
Increasing the number of private sector jobs. Despite recent increases there are fewer jobs than Reliance on the public sector is close to the highest in Scotland.
Increasing the quality of jobs. This will help broaden and strengthen the employment base, particularly higher value added professional services.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills, including investment in young people. There is also need for an outward focus for new markets.
Meeting the skills needs of employers. There are important local sectors, including health, tourism and creative industries. Local skills activity should continue to be focused on employer demand.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations, as well as skilled trades. Progression needs engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow