1. Skills Assessments
Glasgow City
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for Glasgow City
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland (SDS), Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group (SLAED).
Purpose:
Support SFC, regional colleges, strategic bodies and college boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for academic years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of seven workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slide pack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Overview
Glasgow City, with 11% of Scotland’s population, acts as an economic hub, attracting commuters from surrounding areas to high value job opportunities
The City generates 16% of Scotland’s GVA and its productivity levels are above the Scottish average
Despite its relative economic strength, there are widespread areas of persistent disadvantage: a legacy of the City’s industrial past

9. Business Trends
Positive growth trend in business numbers maintained in 2015
1,310 new businesses including: Professional, Scientific and Technical (+300); Arts, Entertainment and Recreation (+210)
83% businesses have 0-9 employees (Scotland 88%)
Relatively low business density of 274 per 10,000 population (Scotland 313)
Self-employment second highest in 10 years at 11.5% dropping slightly from 2014 (-0.2%) (Scotland 10.8%)
Number of businesses in Growth Sectors in 2015 close to Scottish average
However, only 28% of employment in Growth Sectors
Concentrations of businesses in Financial & Business Services (42% of Growth Sector businesses), Creative Industries (31%), and Sustainable Tourism (22%)

10. Population and Projections
Total population of 606,340 (11% of Scotland) in 2015
Population change
The population change in Glasgow City has been in contrast to much of rest of country with significant increase in working age population (predominantly year olds +31%)
Accompanied by a 3% drop in number of people aged 65+
Forecast Population Growth
The trend in Glasgow City of an increasing working age population is set to continue
Total population to increase by 89,664 (15%)
Working age population set to also increase by 31,673 (+11%)

11. Workforce Trends
Total employment in Glasgow City of 404,500 (16% of Scottish total)
4% increase over 2014, exceeding national figure (3%)
46% work in higher level occupations in 2015, above Scottish average of 42%
79% of employed population work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally
25% of employees work part-time, down from 27% since last year, and below the national average (26%)
6.6% of people in employment are in non-permanent jobs, compared to 5.3% nationally
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate is relatively low at 67% (73% nationally) in 2015, but improved 2.5ppt since 2014
62% of employed residents work in Glasgow City
17% working in rest of Glasgow RSA
Out-commuting mainly to neighbouring council areas including Renfrewshire (5.0%) South Lanarkshire (4.0%), North Lanarkshire (3.5%)
The unemployment rate in Glasgow was above the national average (9% v. 6%) in 2015, unemployment fell by -1.3ppts which was greater than the national decline (-0.4ppts) over the same period
87% of year olds in Glasgow City are participating in 2016 and 5% are not, broadly mirroring Scotland’s participation rates

13. Qualifications and Earnings
A higher proportion of working age adults in Glasgow City (46%) hold SCQF qualifications at Levels 7-12 than at national level (43%) in 2015
Glasgow City’s resident and workplace earnings broadly correspond with the national average

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 24,915, 8.9% of Scotland total
90% school leavers had a positive
destination in 2015, compared to 92% across Scotland
MA uptake decreased by 1% from 2014/15 to 2,710
11% of national total in 2015/16
Construction is the most popular MA framework group
22% of uptake
Heavily gender segregated - 98% male
75% achievement rate 2015/16

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, there were 64,630 enrolments at Glasgow City College, Glasgow Clyde College and Glasgow Kelvin College
23% of Scotland’s total
75% FE and 25% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Business, management & admin, Art & Design and Care
Part-time: Computing & ICT, Languages & ESOL and Special Programmes
67% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 69,000 students at the five HEIs in the region in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Business & Admin, Subjects Allied to Medicine and Engineering
Note: HE/FE data is available at regional level only. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire and Glasgow, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to increase by 0.4% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, an equivalent rate of 0.2% growth is expected for Scotland as a whole. Such growth equates to 16,600 additional jobs in the region by Administrative and support activities and professional, scientific and technical activities are expected to enjoy growth of 7,000 and 2,700 jobs respectively over the forecast. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the public and manufacturing sectors. The number of jobs within public administration and defence is expected to fall by 2,400 over the forecast, whilst those in manufacturing will fall by 2,300 jobs.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Glasgow City Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 174,700 openings within Glasgow City over the forecast. Expansion demand is expected to grow by 11,600 openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 186,300 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in professional and elementary occupations, experiencing both expansion and replacement demand. The total requirement for workers in sales and customer service, administrative and secretarial and associate professional and technical occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. Glasgow City: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
The strong jobs recovery in 2013 and 2014 in Glasgow City continued in 2015, albeit at a much slower rate. For Scotland as a whole there was almost no jobs growth so in this context the 900 new jobs in Glasgow are welcome. Still, the Glasgow City jobs market was affected badly by the recession, and there are still more than 12,000 fewer jobs than in 2009.
There were sector shifts in 2015 including increases in the public sector services of health (+2,800) and public administration (+2,600), and in accommodation & food services (+4,600). The latter reflects growth in tourism but also changes on the high street, where there were significant retail job losses (-5,100). The strong businesses administration & support services sector also contracted (-2,700) although this still employs well above the Scotland average. The challenge remains growing a higher value added private sector.
The business base in Glasgow City has shown strong and above average growth, including in professional services and the creative industries. Output has increased alongside the job recovery, and output per worker is above the Scotland average, although increasing jobs in higher value added sectors would push this higher. Starting and growing more businesses is a key route for achieving this.
Glasgow

20. Glasgow City: Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
There has been recent population growth, and the rate of growth over the last 10 years has been similar to that across Scotland as a whole. The 30% increase in those aged over this period is counter to national trends, and an 11% increase in the working age population to 2037 is forecast.
Glasgow City now has more working in professional occupations than the Scotland average, and there are expected to be more than 50,000 openings in these occupations to 2024 as a result of replacement demand, in addition to new jobs in professional services. Sales, elementary and administrative roles will comprise the majority of the remaining 120,000 replacement demand jobs, the latter despite overall reduction in job numbers. It will be important to meet employer demand.
A slightly lower proportion go into Higher Education from school than the Scotland average, and it is important as many as possible in Glasgow are able to access local jobs.
The top MA frameworks by take-up are construction, health and social care (with sport), administration & related hospitality & tourism and retail & customer service. Others services (including ICT professionals) less so.
Glasgow

21. Glasgow City: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for Glasgow City include:
Continuing to increase the quality of jobs. A key element of the City Region Skills Investment Plan is to improve productivity and competitiveness.
Ensure a good supply of well qualified labour. Growing and retaining higher level skills base and encouraging employer investment in higher skilled employees.
Meeting the skills needs of employers. There are important local sectors and occupations, including business administration, sales and customer services and hospitality & tourism. There will be strong replacement demand for these, and skills activity must continue to be focused on employer demand.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations. Progression needs engendered and supported.
Increasing the labour pool. The numbers experiencing relative deprivation have not fallen significantly in the most recent measure.
A need to meet the region’s infrastructure needs. This will require adequate construction, engineering and professional skills.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow