Regional Skills Assessment 2016

Regional Skills Assessment 2016
Forth Valley comprising Clackmannanshire, Falkirk and Stirling OK Glasgow

Contents Section 1: Introducing the Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)
Section 2: National Policy Context Section 3: The National Economic and Skills Context Section 4: Forth Valley in Context Section 5: Economic Performance of Forth Valley Section 6: The Forth Valley Business Base Section 7: Where are the jobs in Forth Valley Section 8: The People of Forth Valley Section 9: The Forth Valley Labour Market Section 10: Skills Challenges in Forth Valley Section 11: Schools numbers and destinations in Forth Valley Section 12: Skills Provision in Forth Valley Section 13: College Activity Section 14: University Provision Section 15: How are Skills and Jobs Likely to Change? Section 16: What are the key implications for the Region? Glasgow

1. Introducing the RSAs In this section:
What are Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)? What is not covered by the RSAs? Other sources of useful information Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
Regional Skills Assessments provide a coherent evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets Their purpose is to: Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses. Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills. Support wider public and private investment propositions. Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
RSAs are developed by Skills Development Scotland (SDS) in partnership with Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development (SLAED) Group. They cover demand for skills, supply of people and skills, skills provision and skills challenges. ….and include employment and GVA forecasts and trends to help identify future skills needs RSA cover: Regional performance and characteristics Trends over time How does the region compare to Scotland High level implications for skills planning Provide a data matrix to allow further analysis RSAs do not: Answer every question... however can be used alongside data matrix and other national and local intelligence Tell partners what they should do – although RSAs are designed to support making better informed decisions Glasgow

RSA data sources and coverage
The Regional Skills Assessments are underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on 117 social and economic indicators With data at 3 spatial levels: Regional Outcome Agreement areas; City Region Deal; Local Authority – with Scotland and GB/UK comparators where available The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE). No primary research is involved. The data matrix is found here: The data matrix including a full user guide is available at: do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments Data Matrix sources include: Annual Population Survey Business Register Employment Survey UKCES Employer Skills Survey UK Business Counts Census Data Scottish Government Growth Sector datasets Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Partner data sources include: SDS Participation Measure data SDS Apprenticeship Family data SE and HIE data on Regional Selective Assistance and Account Managed businesses supported SLAED data on major infrastructure projects Glasgow

Other useful sources and publications
Other useful sources of current and forthcoming information are available. Scottish Government Labour Market Strategy Scottish Government Economic Strategy Sectoral and Regional Skills Investment Plans UKCES Employer Survey data Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Reports RBS Business Monitor Markit Economics Purchasing Managers' Index Glasgow

2: National Policy Context
In this section: Government Economic Strategy Labour Market Strategy Youth Employment Strategy Skills Planning Model Scotland’s Skills Agencies Enterprise and Skills Review Glasgow

Economic Strategy (1) Scotland’s Economic Strategy (2015) reaffirms the Scottish Government’s commitment to creating a more successful country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth. It sets out an overarching framework for achieving the two mutually supportive goals of increasing competitiveness and tackling inequality. It forms the strategic plan for existing and all future Scottish Government policy and prioritises boosting investment and innovation, supporting inclusive growth and maintaining focus on increasing internationalisation.

Labour Market Strategy (2)
Scotland’s Labour Market Strategy (2016) sets out for the first time how the labour market and wider social and economic policies interact to drive ambitions for inclusive growth. It provides a framework for the approach to the labour market, and describes the actions that will be taken to deliver the vision. Vision: “A strong labour market that drives inclusive, sustainable economic growth, characterised by growing, competitive businesses, high employment, a skilled population capable of meeting the needs of employers, and where fair work is central to improving the lives of individuals and their families.“ Five priorities: promoting the Fair Work Framework and encouraging responsible business; supporting employability and skills, so that all of our people can participate successfully in the labour market; investing in our people and our infrastructure; fostering innovation including workplace innovation which will help spur job creation; and promoting Scotland internationally to improve the competitiveness of our businesses.

Youth Employment (3) Developing the Young Workforce – Scotland’s Youth Employment Strategy (2014) sets out how the Scottish Government will implement the recommendations from the Commission for Developing Scotland's Young Workforce, with headline target to reduce youth unemployment by 40% by 2021:

Skills Planning Model (4)
Regional Skills Assessments are at the heart of Scotland’s Skills Planning Model by providing an evidence base to understand demand for skills and to influence planning and investment to meet demand.

Scotland’s Skills Agencies (5)
Skills Development Scotland and the Scottish Funding Council are the two core skills agencies for Scotland. Skills Development Scotland Making Skills Work for Scotland: Employers are better able to recruit the right people with the right skills at the right time Employers have high performing, highly productive, fair and equal workplaces People have the right skills and confidence to secure good work, progress in their careers and achieve their full potential Across all SDS services and programmes, there is increased equality of opportunity SDS is recognised as an employer of choice, an exemplar of fair work, and internationally recognised for excellence, innovation and customer focus Scottish Funding Council, Ambition 2025: Scotland - the Best Place in the World to Learn, to Educate, to Research and to Innovate “Our ambition is that Scotland will be the best place in the world to learn, to educate, to research, and to innovate……with colleges and universities making a major contribution to Scotland’s social, cultural and economic development.” Priority outcomes: High-quality learning and teaching World-leading research Greater innovation in the economy.

Enterprise & Skills Review (6)
Report on Phase One (2016) included a series of recommendations of relevance to skills investment planning “We will align the functions of our skills agencies to better join up how learning and skills are planned and provided to learners and employers.” “We will conduct a comprehensive review of the Learning Journey focused on sustained employment, with significantly enhanced use of labour market information in skills planning at its heart.” “We will review the effectiveness of our investment in learning and skills to ensure we have the right balance of provision across age groups and sectors and maximise its contribution to productivity and inclusive growth.” Next steps; Regional partnerships Digital Enterprise support

3: Scotland’s Economic and Skills Context
In this section: Economic Recession to Recovery Productivity Employment Non Standard Jobs Occupational Change In Work poverty Skills Challenges Scotland’s People Looking to the Future Glasgow

Economic Recession to Recovery (1)
The ‘great recession’ was the longest and deepest recession in the UK since the 1930s both in terms of depth of recession and time to recover GDP. The UK posted the slowest recovery of any advanced economy (aside from Italy and Greece) with recovery only taking hold after pause to fiscal consolidation in 2012 and consumer spending and investment. Scotland’s recession was shallower than the UK. Different sectors had different rates of recovery. Recession and Recovery in Scotland Output Source: Adapted from Fraser of Allander. March 2016 Glasgow

Productivity (2) Productivity in Scotland
Moderated growth in the international economy and Scotland and poor productivity growth presents challenging conditions for many sectors and industries. Productivity in Scotland UK trails G7 advanced economies on productivity by 18 percentage points. Scotland trails UK. UK trails US productivity across all sectors, especially manufacturing. There is evidence that the UK manufacturing productivity in line with France/ Germany. But significant deterioration versus Europe in financial services and private service sector. Productivity improvements have been muted at a Scottish level over the last six years and have fallen behind wages growth. This suggests a weakening of Scotland’s competitive advantage. Fraser of Allander Institute argue that total factor productivity in Scotland is much lower than UK. In the absence of faster Scottish population growth, sustained economic growth will require raising competitiveness. Glasgow

Employment (3) Jobs in Scotland
Total employment in Scotland continued to fall until 2012, but has risen sharply since then. Total employment in was 1.5% greater than in 2009, although this is compared to a 7% increase in the UK. This has been dominated by private sector growth alongside a fall in public sector employment. Jobs in Scotland Employment Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, Glasgow

Non Standard Jobs (4) The Rise of Non-Standard Work
Although Scotland is experiencing a growth in total employment since pre-recession times, a large part of this is due to the rise of ‘non standard jobs’ – part time, temporary and self employment. Of the new jobs created since the recovery, 50,000+ have been part time jobs, 35,000 have been self-employed jobs and more than 13,000 have been temporary jobs. Only 9,000 or so have been full time jobs. The Rise of Non-Standard Work Employment change in Scotland and the UK, 2008 – 2015 Source: Labour Force Survey Glasgow

Occupational Change (5)
The occupational shift has seen a polarisation of employment with a strong bias towards higher skilled occupations. In effect, what we are seeing is an hour glass labour market. This represents significant challenges for progression. Occupational Shifts Source: 2011 Census, Labour Force Survey, Oxford Economics Glasgow

In-Work Poverty (6) Low Pay and in-work Poverty
Historically, being in work was seen as a way of escaping poverty, however more recently this is not the case for all. In 2014/15 , 260,000 people or 55% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, before housing costs (BHC). In 2014/15, 350,000 people or 58% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, after housing costs (AHC). In-work poverty can be a particular challenge for some groups – women, younger people, older workers, those with no qualifications, some ethnic groups, lone parents and people with disabilities. Low Pay and in-work Poverty In-work poverty (relative poverty AHC) in Scotland: 1998/99 to 2014/15 Number of individuals in poverty in households with at least one adult in employment Source:HBAI dataset, DWP Glasgow

Skills Challenges (7) Current Skills Challenges in Scotland (From Employer Skills Survey 2015) Steep rise in vacancies from 54,000 (2013) to 74,000 (2015) – reflecting higher demand for labour Proportion of establishments reporting Skills Shortage Vacancies in Scotland rose from 3% (2011) to 4% (2013) and 6% (2015) – in line with UK trends Proportion of establishments reporting skills gaps fell to 14% (2015) – same as at UK level Increasing levels of under-employment and under-utilisation of skills – 32% of establishments reported at least one member of staff with both skills and qualifications above the level required for the job Skills shortages and recruitment difficulties are likely to be a permanent feature of the Scottish labour market, particularly where experienced labour is required Along with under-employment and under-utilisation of skills, this will make improving productivity a challenging task Glasgow

Scotland’s People (8) People and Demographics
There have been strong population increases in Scotland, driven by in migration. The population is, however, an ageing one, with changing age demographics. This means there is considerable competition for young people. The majority of people in the workforce over the next 10 years are already working. People and Demographics Source: Mid Year Population Estimates Glasgow

The Future - Scotland’s People (9.1)
Over the period , the population of Scotland is forecast to grow by 9% to reach just under 5.8 million by The ageing of the population is forecast to continue however with the highest percentage of growth forecast in those age groups and 75+. Population Projections Source: General Register Office for Scotland Glasgow

The Future – GVA (9.2) Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland
GVA for Scotland is forecast to steadily increase over the period Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland Source: ONS, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment (9.3)
Although employment is forecast to contract between , this will be followed by growth from In 2024, this would be equivalent to just under 47,500 additional jobs in the economy compared to levels. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment by Industry (9.4)
Not all industrial sectors will fare the same in terms of employment growth. It is forecast that there will be growth in Construction, Professional, scientific and technical activities and Administrative and Support Services whereas there will be a major decline in Manufacturing, Mining and Quarrying and Public sector jobs. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Total Jobs Requirement (9.5)
Although understanding growth is important, a crucial part of skills planning is being able to understand the likely jobs that will arise as a result of both expansion demand (growth/contraction) and also replacement demand (churn in the labour market). Total jobs forecast to be filled in the period is 980,600 with most of these arising due to replacement demand and a very small proportion (c.26.5k) arising from growth. Looking Forward – Total Jobs requirement Total jobs requirement from Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Qualifications (9.6)
Based on the total jobs requirement for , the forecast for qualifications required shows that the vast majority of requirement is for people qualified at higher level - SCQF7 and above. Only a small proportion of opportunities will be available for people with no-low qualifications. Looking Forward - Qualifications Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

4. Forth Valley in Context
The context within which a region operates plays a huge part in explaining a region’s performance. Historical factors, the composition of the industrial sector, geographic location, image and demographics are all at play. It is important to provide the regional context before presenting demand and skills supply data. In this section: Forth Valley’s contribution to Scotland’s economy Key sectoral characteristics Key labour market performance Deprivation and living standards Earnings and commuting patterns Glasgow

Forth Valley Region in Context (1)
The Forth Valley region is a mixed urban and rural economy which generates just under 5% of the total output of Scotland as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA). GVA is the measure of the value of goods and services produced. The region’s proportion of the Scotland total has been slipping back over time and Forth Valley was hit hard by the recession. GVA increased quite strongly between 2011 and 2013 before levelling off in the year to 2014 (latest data), where GVA was £5,621m in real prices. For more on GVA see Section 5: Economic Performance. The Region’s Contribution to Scotland’s Economy Total GVA in the region and the region’s share of total Scotland GVA Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The manufacturing sector remains important to the Forth Valley economy in terms of output, and at 18% this is the largest sector. Following this, it is the retail and the human health and social work sectors that are the most important. There is a weaker professional, business and financial services sector in Forth Valley than elsewhere. For more on GVA see Section 5: Economic Performance. The Industrial Structure of the Region (GVA by sector) 2014 Total GVA (£m) at 2013 prices Source: Oxford Economics forecasts Glasgow

There were 123,700 employed in the Forth Valley region in These are people employed in VAT or PAYE-registered businesses and so excludes those who are self-employed and work for smaller firms. Total employment has been increasing since 2012 as the Forth Valley regional economy recovers, although this masks some key labour market changes and dynamics, and recent jobs growth has been modest. See Section 7 on Where are the Jobs and Section 9 on the Labour Market. Key Labour Market Performance Employment change in the Region, Scotland and Great Britain Source: Business Register Employment Survey Glasgow

There remain parts of the region with higher levels of relative deprivation, and the number of datazones amongst the most 10% deprived in Scotland has increased. Many continue to suffer multiple disadvantages including exclusion from the labour market. Although the number of jobs is increasing in the Forth Valley region, not all those living in the region are accessing these opportunities. For more information see Section 7 on the Labour Market. The household income of residents in Stirling is higher than for those in Clackmannanshire and Falkirk. Deprivation and Living Standards Source: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Source: Scottish Household Survey A higher proportion of households in Stirling have incomes above £40,000 than in the remainder of the region, although more also have incomes less than £10,000, partly influenced by the student population there. Glasgow

Forth Valley comprises Stirling, Falkirk and Clackmannanshire. Commuting out of Clackmannanshire for employment is commonplace from the two other local authorities in the region. More information is at Section 8: The People of the Forth Valley region. Commuting Flows Those in Stirling are much more likely to work in their own local authority area (62%) compared to Falkirk(58%) and Clackmannanshire (44%). Source: 2011 Census Glasgow

5. Forth Valley: Economic Performance
The economic performance of the region is a critical driver of the demand for skills. Successful businesses need high levels of productivity, with skills an important component of this, although not the only one, particularly as business processes become more mechanised. Economic performance is measured using Gross Value Added per worker as the best measure of productivity. In this section: Total GVA and GVA growth rates GVA per employee (productivity) GVA per employee by sector Forecast GVA growth Glasgow

Economic Performance (1)
Total GVA in the Forth Valley region has increased since 2009, although this has been uneven. The increase in output between 2013 and 2014 (latest data) was just 0.1%, compared to the 4.3% increase across Scotland. The region experienced the negative effects of the recession strongly in 2009, far more so than the Scotland fall, and although GVA has increased it is still below the 2007 level. Total GVA in Forth Valley ( ) Source: Oxford Economics Total GVA £m at 2013 prices 2004 £18,850 6.3% 4.1% 2005 £20,035 -0.7% 3.7% 2006 £19,897 -0.4% 1.7% 2007 £19,824 1.3% 2008 £20,075 -2.0% -3.6% 2009 £19,676 -4.3% 2010 £18,837 2.0% 1.8% 2011 £19,208 -0.6% -0.2% 2012 £19,097 2.9% 2.6% 2013 £19,647 6.4% 4.3% 2014 £20,914 3.5% 2.8% Glasgow

GVA per worker is a proxy measure for productivity. It describes the region’s output in relation to the numbers in employment. Again this is heavily influenced by the sector composition of the regional economy. Sectors such as manufacturing and financial and professional services are more productive than others, where the Forth Valley region has more of the former and less of the latter than average.. The sector composition in Clackmannanshire, with its manufacturing base, is reflected in the higher levels of GVA per worker. Overall, productivity has been fluctuating across the region since 2009 without rising to any great extent. GVA Per Employee (Productivity) Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

GVA output is forecast to grow in the Forth Valley region, at a rate just slower than the Scotland average. Growth of 11.2% is forecast 2015 to 2024, compared to 15.9% for Scotland. Total GVA growth is forecast to average 1.5% per year over the period, placing the area marginally behind the average for Scotland as a whole. Uncertainty caused by the UK’s decision to leave the EU has dampened near-term growth prospects. GVA Output Growth to 2024 Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

Forth Valley’s GVA growth is expected to continue. Sectorally, more than 72% of GVA growth in the region will be provided by private services with the largest contributions from wholesale and retail trade, real estate and administrative and support services. Professional, scientific and technical services are expected to enjoy the fastest rate of growth (average 3.3% per year), followed closely and information and communications (3.3% per year) although both from modest bases in the region, as well as administrative and support services (3.0% per year). Forecast Output Growth by Sector Glasgow

6. Forth Valley: Business Base
The business base of the region is a strong determinant of the economic performance describes in the previous section. Successful businesses need skilled and effective employees. This section presents an analysis of the business base by its industrial sector composition and other characteristics. In this section: Total number of businesses and growth rates Business base by sector Growth Sector businesses Business base by size Business density Business birth, death and survival rates Self employment Glasgow

Business Base (1) There were 8,560 businesses in the Forth Valley region in The region’s business base has grown faster than the Scotland average in the years to 2014 and These are VAT and PAYE registered businesses. The growth rate from 2014 to 2015 was 8.0% compared to 7.3% for Scotland, an additional 630 businesses. Total Number of Businesses and Growth Rates Number of businesses by year from 2010 – and growth rate comparators Source: UK Business Counts Change in number of business Glasgow

Business Base (2) Business Base by Sector, 2015
Almost one in five businesses in the Forth Valley Region (19%) are in the professional, scientific and technical sector. This is a similar proportion to Scotland. 11% of businesses are in the construction sector, in line with the Scotland average, and 9% are in retail . The region also has a slight concentration of cultural and creative industries (arts, entertainment and related), 8% of the total, above the Scotland and UK. Business Base by Sector, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts Glasgow

Business Base (3) Growth Sectors`
The Scottish Government’s Economic Strategy identifies six growth sectors, detailed below, where Scotland has a distinct comparative advantage. A slightly higher proportion of Forth Valley Growth Sector businesses are in Finance and Business Services (40% versus 35%) than nationally, and in the Creative Industries (20% versus19%) and Sustainable Tourism (20% versus 19%), with fewer in the food and drink sector (14% versus 23%). Growth Sectors` Number of businesses by growth sector 2015 – and proportion of all growth sector businesses Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database Growth sector businesses as a proportion of all business, 2015 Glasgow

Business Base (4) Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013
Financial and Business Services is the greatest contributor to Growth Sector GVA within the region (45% of total Growth Sector GVA), followed by Sustainable Tourism (33%), Overall, however, 44% of all businesses are Growth Sector businesses, compared to 46% nationally. Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013 Source: Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database Total GVA (£m) at basic prices of Scottish Government Growth Sectors by sector, 2013 Some figures are supressed due to data being disclosive Growth sector total GVA as a % of all Growth Sector GVA, 2013 Glasgow

Business Base (5) Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015 ###
The Forth Valley has a similar profile of businesses by employee sizeband as Scotland, where the vast majority of businesses employ fewer than 10. There are 20 large employers (of more than 250 employees). Business density in the Forth Valley is 283 per 10,000 compared to 313 per 10,000 in Scotland. Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015 Number of businesses by employee sizeband and by proportion of all businesses, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts ### Glasgow

Business Base (6) Business survival rates in the Forth Valley are lower than for Scotland and Great Britain over three years, although more survive for one and two years. In all, 47% of businesses starting in 2010 had survived until 2014 in the region, compared to 48% at both Scotland and Great Britain. There was an increase in the business birth rate in 2013 and 2014, although rates still lag behind Scotland, which in turn lags behind the Great Britain rate. Business Birth and Death Rates ( ) and Survival Rates ( ) Note: A business is deemed to have survived if still active 5 years after birth Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-year Population Estimates Glasgow

Business Base (7) Self-Employment
The self-employment rate in the Forth Valley region fell in 2015 and the rate has fluctuated over the last 10 years, although consistently below the Scotland rate. In 2015, the rate stood at 9.6% compared to 10.8% across Scotland. Self-employment rates are the proportion of the resident working age (16-64) population who are self employed. Self-Employment Source: Annual Population Survey – Jan-Dec each year Glasgow

7. Forth Valley: Where are the Jobs?
Analysing the employment base of the region provides important information on the nature and functioning of the labour market. There have been significant occupational shifts in Scotland, reflected in changes in Forth Valley, where higher skilled occupation employment continues to increase. There has been jobs recovery since the recession, but not all of these have been good quality jobs. In this section: Total employment and rate of change Employment by sector and change over time Sectoral specialism Employment by occupation and change Non standard jobs – part time and non permanent Resident and workplace earnings Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (1) Total Employment and Change 2009-2015
There were 123,700 employees in employment in the Forth Valley in These are jobs in VAT and PAYE registered businesses. Following a steep decline in employment following the recession to 2012, employment in the Forth Valley region recovered strongly in 2013 and The increase in employment from 2014 to 2015 was however very modest, an additional 300 jobs. This slow rate of jobs growth mirrors the pattern for Scotland as a whole from 2014 to 2015. Total Employment and Change Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (2) Employment by sector provides important information on the industrial composition of the regional economy. Employment in the health sector comprises the largest share of total employment as it does across Scotland, and the continuation of the manufacturing sector is reflected in the 14,000 employed in production (11% of the total). Tourism employment is relatively important in the region, 10,400 jobs in accommodation and food services, 8% of the total, in line with the proportion across Scotland. Employment by Sector and proportion of Total Employment 2015 The Forth Valley region has a lower proportion of employment in information and communications (1%) than Scotland (2%) and a lower proportion of employment in the professional, scientific and technical services sector (4%) compared to Scotland (7%). Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (3) Sector Specialisms
Marrying employment growth trends by sector with the size and concentration of the sector in a region can provide important information on the dynamics of the labour market. Concentration of a sector is the extent to which employment in the sector is above (or below) sector concentration at the Scotland level. Sector Specialisms Sectors above the horizontal line are more concentrated in the region than in Scotland, those below the line less so. Sectors to the right of the vertical line are larger in employment terms than five years ago, to the left less so. Larger bubbles reflect higher sector employment. The large and concentrated production and education sectors are illustrated right. Although smaller the wholesale and transport and storage sectors are concentrated and have grown in size in the last five years Note: SIC Section A: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing omitted as data for farm agriculture (SIC subclass 01000) is not available sub-nationally Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (4) Employment by Occupation (2015)
The occupational profile of the region is important because occupation is often linked to skills requirements. There has been a steady and continuing shift to more professional occupations. The Forth Valley is making this transition more slowly than a number of other regions, and the growth in professional occupations over the last 10 years has been slower than for Scotland and Great Britain, accounting for 17% of the total compared to 20% for Scotland. Elementary and process, plant and machine operatives both account for a greater proportion of the total than at the Scotland level. Employment by Occupation (2015) And Change Over Time Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (5) Part-Time Employment 2005-2015
Just over a quarter (26%) of those in employment work part-time and this is the same proportion as Scotland and Great Britain. More of the jobs created in the economic recovery have been part time jobs. There are also 5.8% in non-permanent employment, a higher percentage than nationally (5.4%) and a proportion that increased significantly in Nationally, 2.2% are employed on zero hours contracts. Part-Time Employment Non-Permanent Employment, Source: Annual Population Survey Non-permanent employment is the proportion of all of those of working age in employment types such as fixed- term contracts, temporary agency, casual or seasonal work. The increase in non-permanent employment reflects the changing nature of employment. Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (6) Some sectors are typically better paid than others, and the industrial base of the region is often an indicator of average wage levels. The composition of the industrial base within a region also affects workplace pay levels. Average gross weekly workplace earnings across all parts of the region are very similar, between £454 for all workers in Clackmannanshire and £464 per week in both Falkirk and Stirling. Out commuting to better paid jobs however is clear, with average residence-based earnings for all workers far higher in Stirling, which at £580 per week is well above the Scotland average of £492. In all parts of the region, however, earnings are higher for those living in the area versus what jobs pay in the area. Average Weekly Workplace and Residence-based Earnings, 2015 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings Glasgow

8. Forth Valley: Its People
The demographic characteristics of the region are extremely important in determining current and future demand for skills. The age profile of the population, the number of young people and elderly, the increasing proportion of retirees, are all contributory factors. The movement of people within a region, and into and out of a region, also affect the labour market and the supply of skills available to employers. In this section: Population growth Population profile Population projections Net migration Travel to work data Glasgow

People (1) Population Change over Time
Forth Valley’s population has grown faster than the Scotland average over the 10 years 2005 to 2015, although both lag the rate of growth in Great Britain of 7.8%. The population of the Forth Valley increased slightly faster than the rate for Scotland over the last year ( ), +0.7% compared to +0.5%. Population Change over Time Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Year Forth Valley Scotland 2005 286,800 5,110,200 2006 288,720 5,133,100 2007 291,350 5,170,000 2008 293,020 5,202,900 2009 294,190 5,231,900 2010 296,020 5,262,200 2011 298,080 5,299,900 2012 299,090 5,313,600 2013 299,670 5,327,700 2014 300,400 5,347,600 2015 302,650 5,373,000 Change 15,850 262,800 % Change 6% 5% Glasgow

People (2) Age profile of the Region
Forth Valley has a similar age profile to the Scotland average, although it has a slightly higher proportion of over 35s. Forth Valley has seen a slightly lower decline in the age band than Scotland (-15% v -16%) but has seen higher growth of the 65+ age band (+23%, 10,300) than Scotland (+18%). Overall, the working age population of the region increased by 6,300 over the 10 years to 2015. Age profile of the Region Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Source: National Records of Scotland Glasgow

People (3) Population Projections (2012-2037)
Source: National Records of Scotland Forth Valley’s population is projected to grow more quickly than in Scotland as a whole to 2037 (+9% compared to +8%). The working age population is also projected to fall but slower than nationally (-3% compared to -4%). Over the longer term, the age structure of the region’s population is projected to become older. Year Forth Valley Scotland 2014 301,551 5,346,120 2015 302,886 5,365,420 2016 304,233 5,385,719 2017 305,600 5,406,997 2018 306,954 5,429,012 2019 308,377 5,451,660 2020 309,766 5,474,391 2021 311,157 5,497,079 2022 312,529 5,519,588 2023 313,898 5,541,816 2024 315,251 5,563,670 2025 316,552 5,585,040 2026 317,841 5,605,814 2027 319,100 5,625,892 2028 320,323 5,645,150 2029 321,487 5,663,541 2030 322,608 5,681,121 2031 323,676 5,697,808 2032 324,687 5,713,523 2033 325,638 5,728,318 2034 326,551 5,742,297 2035 327,413 5,755,558 2036 328,236 5,768,217 2037 329,033 5,780,371 Change 27,482 434,251 % Change 9% 8% Glasgow

People (4) Net Migration
There are been variable net migration into Forth Valley in recent years. Net migration decreased between 2010/11 and 2012/13, from 2,034 to It has since risen sharply through to 2014/15, to 2,288, above the 2010/11 levels. The age band with by the highest net migration in the year 2014/2015 was those aged (640). Net Migration Source: National Records of Scotland Glasgow

People (5) Travel to Work (2011 Census)
There are high levels of out-commuting, with 27% of employed residents working outside Forth Valley. Stirling is the most self-contained labour market, with 62% of those employed working locally. Clackmannanshire has the fewest working within their home area (44%) but the most commuting to other parts of Forth Valley (37%). Travel to Work (2011 Census) Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work Glasgow

Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number
People (6) At the time of the 2011 Census, there were slightly fewer workers in Stirling commuting from elsewhere in Scotland into Stirling (19,058) than those living and working in Stirling (19,994). Overall, there was a net inflow of workers into Stirling of over 7,000. By contrast, there were more than 11,000 workers in Falkirk and more than 7,000 who commuted out of their local authority area to work Travel to Work (2011 Census) Note: Not currently available in the data matrix Council area of workplace Total workplace population Lives and works in the area Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number Net flow of workers Works in the area but lives elsewhere in Scotland Works in the area but lives in the rest of UK Lives in the area but works elsewhere in Scotland Lives in the area but works in the rest of the UK Within Scotland From the rest of the UK Total Clackmannanshire 12,096 8,333 3,718 45 10,629 146 -6,911 -101 -7,012 Falkirk 50,164 35,980 13,900 284 25,808 344 -11,908 -60 -11,968 Stirling 39,399 19,944 19,058 397 12,037 281 7,021 116 7,137 Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work Glasgow

9. Forth Valley: Labour Market
The functioning of the labour market is influenced by labour market participation. Those unemployed or economically inactive will not be directly contributing to the economic success of the region, although their situation may be temporary, or indeed those inactive may be learning and studying and be a future contributor to the region.. In this section: Economic activity Qualifications Participation Unemployment Glasgow

Labour Market (1) Economic Activity Rates Economic Inactivity Rates
Forth Valley’s economic activity and inactivity rates have remained relatively stable between 2005 and 2015, varying between 77-79% and %, respectively. Scotland’s rates have remained stable throughout, staying at 77-78% and 22-23% respectively. Economic Activity Rates Economic Inactivity Rates Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (2) Qualifications
The highest level qualifications of the resident working age population is a useful barometer of skills attainment levels. There remains a cohort in regional economies with no formal qualifications which used to be associated with older workers. Jobs increasingly require higher levels of qualification, including so-called entry level jobs. Forth Valley has a slightly less qualified working age population , with 39% qualified to SCQF Level 7-12, compared to 43% for Scotland. The proportion of Forth Valley with no qualifications is 9%, in line with Scotland. Qualifications Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (3) Participation
The Participation Measure is a new measure which provides the ability to identify the status of the wider cohort – not just those who have left school. Participation of young people aged in Forth Valley was in line with the Scottish rate of 90%. Participation Source: Skills Development Scotland Forth Valley Scotland Number % Total Cohort (16-19) 13,059 Participating (16-19) 11,789 90% Education 8,879 68% 71% Employment 2,564 20% 17% Other Training & Development 346 3% 2% Not Participating (16-19) 759 6% 4% Unemployed Seeking 507 Unemployed not Seeking 252 1% Unconfirmed Status (16-19) 511 Glasgow

Labour Market (4) The way unemployment is measured is changing with the introduction of Universal Credit. As such, the data is regarded as ‘experimental’ and care is needed when comparing to previous data (all regions have recorded a fall in claimant count unemployment under the new measure). Unemployment – Claimant Count (includes Universal Credit) – experimental measure Source: Job Seekers Allowance Year Forth Valley Scotland Great Britain May 2005 640 12,760 115,375 May 2006 700 13,265 141,970 May 2007 685 12,490 145,310 May 2008 375 7,825 99,735 May 2009 470 10,320 123,545 May 2010 935 20,870 252,170 May 2011 1,335 20,340 203,195 May 2012 2,250 35,725 378,480 May 2013 2,360 38,090 410,710 May 2014 1,840 29,470 310,865 May 2015 1,040 19,145 197,275 May 2016 805 16,515 158,520 Glasgow

10. Forth Valley Region: Skills Challenges
Employers have specific skills needs, either amongst those they are seeking to recruit, or amongst those in their existing workforce. This are not always available. Skills shortage vacancies (SSVs) relate to the skills shortages amongst those being recruited, and skills gaps shortages relate to skills deficiencies within the existing workforce. The 2015 UKCES Employer Survey provides timely data in relation to these and other employer issues. In this section: Skills shortages Skills gaps Recruitment activity Skills under-utilisation Glasgow

Skills Challenges (1) Skills Shortages
The UKCES Employer Survey 2015 data indicates that across Forth Valley skills shortage vacancies are slightly less prevalent than across Scotland at 0.7%% of the total workforce, compared to 0.8% in Scotland as a whole. Hard-to-fill vacancies due to skills shortages account for 0.9% of the workforce, compared to 1.1% in Scotland as a whole. In all, 10% of establishments report at least one hard to fill vacancy in Forth Valley compared to 8% across Scotland. Skills Shortages Source: UKCES Forth Valley Scotland Hard to fill vacancies as % of workforce 0.9% 1.1% Skills shortage vacancies as % of workforce 0.7% 0.8% Glasgow

Skills Challenges(2) Skills Gaps
Skills gaps are those in employment that are regarded by employers are lacking some of the skills required for their job. Around 8% of the workforce in Forth Valley have skills gaps compared to 5% nationally and employers in Forth Valley are somewhat more likely to report skills gaps than the Scottish average. Skills gaps particularly prevalent in Skilled Trades in Forth Valley 72% of employers with a skills gaps say there is an impact on the business (70% nationally) Skills Gaps Source: UKCES Glasgow

Skills Challenges (3) Recruitment Challenges Skills Under-utilisation
58% of Forth Valley businesses had recruited staff over the past year prior to the 2015 UKCES survey, higher than the national average. The number of vacancies is above the Scottish average with 22% of employers in Forth Valley with at least one vacancy. In addition, 34% of employers in Forth Valley have staff who are under-utilised, and again this is above the national average. Recruitment Challenges Skills Under-utilisation Source: UKCES Glasgow

11. Forth Valley: Schools Data
The destination of those leaving school has a clear bearing on the labour market, whether this is for employment, education and training, or none of these. The numbers leaving school and projected school roll numbers are also important. Those at school will form a major part of the future labour market. In this section: School roll numbers School roll projections School leaver destinations Glasgow

Schools Data (1) Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group
There were 16,905 secondary school pupils in Forth Valley in Of this, there were slightly higher proportions of S6 pupils (13% v 12%) and slightly lower proportions of S2 and S3 pupils (17% v 18%) in Forth Valley than Scotland, respectively. Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group Source: Scottish Government Pupil Census Forth Valley Scotland S1 3,079 50,813 S2 2,942 49,514 S3 2,927 50,197 S4 3,080 51,078 S5 2,726 45,817 S6 2,151 33,936 Total Pupils 16,905 281,355 Glasgow

Schools Data (2) Secondary School Roll Number Projections
Based on the latest available projections (2012), secondary school roll numbers are projected to increase by 2% to This is compared to a 2% drop in numbers for Scotland in the same period of time. Secondary School Roll Number Projections Source: Scottish Government Pupil Projections Forth Valley Scotland 2014 16,800 282,800 2015 16,700 278,000 2016 275,300 2017 275,100 2018 17,100 277,900 Glasgow

Schools Data (3) School Leaver Destinations
Between 2013/14 and 2014/15, Forth Valley has seen no change in school leavers entering a positive destination, which is still below the Scotland rate. There are lower proportions of leavers entering Higher Education than in Scotland (33% v. 37%) with the proportion of Forth Valley leavers entering Higher Education falling by 4 percentage points between 2013/14 and 2014/15. School Leaver Destinations Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset 2013/14 2014/15 Forth Valley Scotland Positive Destination 90% 92% Higher Education 37% 39% 33% Further Education 19% 24% 23% Training 5% 3% 4% Employment 28% 25% Voluntary Work 0% 1% Activity Agreement Unemployed Seeking 8% 7% 6% Unemployed Non-Seeking 2% Unknown Glasgow

12. Forth Valley: Skills Provision
There is a wide variety of skills and learning provision available which is designed to meet the future skills needs of the economy. Amongst this is the provision commissioned by Skills Development Scotland, notably via the Apprenticeship family of products (Modern Apprenticeships, Foundation Apprenticeships and Graduate Level Apprenticeships) and the Employability Fund and delivered by approved training providers including Colleges, Universities and Private training providers. In this section: Modern Apprenticeships by participant characteristic and framework grouping Foundation Apprenticeships Graduate Level Apprenticeships Employability Fund and Certificate of Work Readiness starts Glasgow

Skills Provision (1) MA Total Number of Starts
Modern Apprenticeships (MA) help employers to develop their workforce by training new and existing employees. For individuals, an MA lets them earn a wage while gaining a qualification. MA uptake in Forth Valley and nationally was at a peak in 2011/12. The proportion of MA starts in Forth Valley was 6% of the national total in 2015/16. In Forth Valley 52% of apprentices fall within the age group, slightly higher than the national picture (50%). MA Total Number of Starts MA Starts 2015/16, by Age Glasgow

Skills Provision (2) MA Starts by Gender 2010-2016
The gender split in MA uptake in Forth Valley is broadly similar to the national picture with a trend over the period 2010/ /16 of the proportion of male participation in MAs increasing and the female proportion decreasing. More information on gender split in different frameworks can be found in Skills Provision (4). In 2015/16 the uptake of MAs by disabled participants was similar to the national picture and much less than the 19% of working age population in Scotland with a disability. MA Starts by Gender MA Starts by Disability Glasgow

Skills Provision (3) MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16
The uptake of MAs in Forth Valley shows a less diverse ethnic mix than in Scotland overall. 1.1% participants come from a Black Minority and Ethnic (BME) background compared to 1.6% across the country. This also compares unfavourably with the overall BME working population in Scotland of 3.1% (APS 2014). The uptake of MAs in the Forth Valley shows a more diverse ethnic mix than in Scotland overall. 4% of participants in the Forth Valley come from a British Minority Ethnic (BME) background compared to 2% across the country. This also compares favourably with the overall BME working population in Scotland of 3.1% (APS 2014). MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16

Skills Provision (4) In 2015/16 in Forth Valley the most popular MA framework group was Construction & Related which was also one of the most gender segregated groups with 99% male starts. Other male dominated groups include Engineering & Energy related 98% and Automotive 100%. Female participation is highest in Personal Service (includes hairdressing) 95% and Sport, Health and Social Care 86%. Modern Apprenticeship Starts by Framework Group and Gender Note: figures rounded to the nearest 5, figures less than 5 have suppressed. Percentages have been calculated on unrounded figures. Glasgow

Skills Provision (5) MA Achievement Rates 2010/11- 2015/16
MA achievement rates give the proportion of MA starts who completed their apprenticeship: gaining their target qualification and reaching work-based learning aims. Achievement rates in Forth Valley started at the same level as Scotland in 2010/11, 71%, but have risen over the reporting period. In 2015/16 Forth Valley had a 77% achievement rate, one percentage point above the national average, 76%. MA Achievement Rates 2010/ /16 Glasgow

Skills Provision (5) Foundation Apprenticeships (FA) were developed to help school pupils gain work experience and access work-based learning. S4 and S5 students spend time at college or with a local employer, and complete the FA alongside other subjects like National 5s and Highers. The qualification takes two years and can lead to employment or further study at college or university. FAs were piloted in some regions in 2014 and participation has grown over the past three years. The data shows uptake from the past two years and anticipated uptake for 2016/18. Foundation Apprenticeships, National Uptake 2014/ /18 Foundation Apprenticeships In 2016/18, the national uptake of FLA is expected to be over 300. In 2016/18 there are eight frameworks available, linked to six key sectors: Business Skills, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Financial Services, IT Hardware, IT Software, Social Services CYP, Social Services & Healthcare SDS aims to make FLA part of every secondary school’s offer by 2020. Glasgow

Skills Provision (6) Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development
Graduate Level Apprenticeships (GLAs) provide work-based learning opportunities up to Master’s degree level for employees. They have been created in partnership with industry and the further and higher education sector. Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development GLAs are currently available in: ICT/Digital: Software Development ICT/Digital: IT Management for Business Engineering: manufacturing and Design Civil Engineering Over the course of 2017 the intention is to expand the offer to include: Business and Management SCQF Level 10 Engineering (Instrumentation, Measurement and Control SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Cyber Security SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Digital Media SCQF Level 10) Life Sciences SCQF Level 10 Children and Young People SCQF Level 8 Glasgow

Skills Provision (7) The Employability Fund (EF) supports locally delivered services designed to encourage unemployed people to move towards work. SDS administers EF on behalf of Scottish Government.* The uptake of EF starts in Forth Valley in 2015/16 represented almost 5% of the total participants in Scotland and the gender split follows within 1% the national trend at 65% male and 35% female. Employability Fund Starts 2015/16, Total and by Gender *All data provided relates only to SDS funded activity. As other entities administer EF programme the data will not reflect total participation Glasgow

Skills Provision (8) The Certificate of Work Readiness (CWR) addresses the challenge for young people of gaining work experience and workplace skills when entering the labour market. The CWR provides young people with 190 hours of work experience and an assessment from an employer to prove to future employers they have established workplace competencies. In 2015/16 2% of the total individuals and 3% of employers involved in the scheme were located in Forth Valley. Certificate of Work Readiness 2015/16, Starts and Employers Glasgow

13. Forth Valley: College Activity
Colleges provide a range of opportunities for all students, regardless of prior achievement, from access courses to degree level qualifications to meet national, regional and local economic needs. Qualifications include National 4 & 5s, NQ, HNC, HND and Degrees. Colleges also provide qualifications towards Foundation and Modern Apprenticeships. Data in this section relates to enrolments at Forth Valley College and was provided by Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: College activity by age and gender Travel to study: location of students College activity by subject Gaelic language activity College activity: FE/HE Outcomes and destinations Glasgow

College Activity (1) 2015/16 college enrolments
In 2015/16, there were 14,350 enrolments at Forth Valley College, 5% of all enrolments across Scotland. Most enrolments were on part-time courses, similar to the trend nationally. Both regionally and nationally, the 25+ group was the largest overall in terms of enrolments. This age group accounted for 25% of full-time enrolments and 42% of part-time enrolments. 2015/16 college enrolments 2015/16 college enrolments by age Note: Unless otherwise stated all data is for total college enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (2) 2015/16 college enrolments by gender
Nationally in 2015/16, females (51%) accounted for slightly more enrolments than males (49%). At Forth Valley College however there was a greater number of enrolments from male students (53% male vs. 47% female). In terms of home area, the majority of students (80% of enrolments) came from within Forth Valley. 2015/16 college enrolments by gender 2015/16 college enrolments by home area Glasgow

College Activity (3) College enrolments by SIMD
The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) measure shows that in 2015/16 a lower proportion (10%) of college enrolments at Forth Valley College came from the 10% most deprived areas, compared to Scotland as a whole (15%). Compared to colleges across Scotland, Forth Valley College had proportionally slightly more enrolments in Further Education (HE) (84% vs. 82%) and fewer in Higher Education (FE) (16% vs. 18%). College enrolments by SIMD College enrolments by HE/FE Note: Further Education (FE) refers to courses leading to qualifications up to SCQF level 7. Higher Education (HE) refers to courses at SCQF level 7 and above. Glasgow

College Activity (4) Of the 14,530 enrolments at Forth Valley College, 38% were in Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) subjects which was higher than the national average (23%). Over half of the male enrolments in the college were for a STEM subject (52%). Although the figure was less for female enrolment (22%) it was still well above the national average (10%). Engineering/Technology had the greatest number of STEM enrolments in 2015/16 and accounted for 15% of all STEM enrolments. College enrolments - STEM subject and mode of study Ten largest STEM subject areas by total enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (5) Engineering was the largest subject area in terms of full-time enrolments at Forth Valley College in 2015/16. It was also one of the most gender segregated subjects with males accounting for 92% of those studying the subject. Across Scotland, Care was the largest subject area by full-time enrolments. Gender segregation was greatest in Hairdressing (98% female) and Computing & IT (94% male). College enrolments by full-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (6) In 2015/16, as with full-time enrolment, Engineering had the greatest number of part-time enrolments at Forth Valley College. This subject accounted for 21% of all part-time enrolments in the region. Gender imbalance was greatest in Engineering (96% male) and Hairdressing (97% female). College enrolments by part-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (7) Gaelic FE enrolments
Enrolment of students on Gaelic FE courses varies considerably across the country. The Highlands & Islands had the greatest uptake, with enrolments increasing by 14% from 2014/15 to 2015/16. Gaelic uptake in Forth Valley increase from 0 in 2014/15 to 10 in 2015/16. Gaelic uptake across other regions was mixed, with nine regions reporting no Gaelic college activity. Overall Gaelic enrolments across Scotland increased by 12% from 2014/15 to 2015/16, rising from 1,260 to 1,405. Gaelic FE enrolments Note: Data is institution rather than resident-based Glasgow

College Activity (8) 2015/16 FE student outcomes
In 2015/16, 69% of Forth Valley College FE students successfully completed their course. This was higher than the 66% success rate achieved across Scotland. In terms of destination (2014/15), 23% entered employment (again above the national average) and 71% of learners progressed onto additional education including higher level study or Modern Apprenticeships. 2015/16 FE student outcomes 2014/15 college destinations Note: Completed partial success indicates that a student completed the course but did not gain the qualification. This also includes students who gained employment before finishing the course or transferred to another course. Glasgow

14. Forth Valley: University Provision
Scotland has strong university provision with more world-class universities than any other country by head of population. There are five universities in Scotland that are ranked in the world’s top 200 (2015 Times Higher Education rankings). Scotland’s universities play a major role in developing a skilled workforce. In Forth Valley, the University of Stirling provides educational opportunities to residents and also attracts students to the region. Data in this section was provided by the Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: Study destination for region’s residents Students numbers within the region by gender, age and home area Subject choice Student graduation by level Student destinations by employment and industry Glasgow

University Provision (1)
In 2014/15, the number of students at the University of Stirling was 10,835, a slight increase from the previous year and comprised 5% of the Scotland total. Across Scotland university student numbers grew by 1%. The gender split was 62% female and 38% male uptake, similar to the respective national uptake of 58% female and 42% male across Scotland. 2013/14-14/15 total student number 2014/15 HEI students, by gender Note: Unless otherwise stated, data on this and subsequent slides is institution, not resident based and refers to university campuses located in Scotland and excludes study with the Open University Scotland, campuses outside of Scotland and incomplete records Glasgow

In 2014/15, the largest student cohort by age at the University of Stirling was the age range. This was similar to the national picture. 67% of attendees come from within Scotland which was similar to the national trend. There proportion of students from elsewhere in the UK and outside the UK were both within two percentage points of the national average. 2014/15 university students, by age 2014/15 university students, by home area Glasgow

In 2014/15, 7,955 residents of Forth Valley studied at a number of Higher Education Institutions across Scotland. The most common destination was the local institution, the University of Stirling with 21% of the total. The Open University was also a popular choice for Forth Valley residents and attendees from the region represented 5% of the total Open University uptake across Scotland (17,075). Top 5 universities attended by Forth Valley residents 2014/15

In 2014/15 at the University of Stirling, the most popular subject was Biological Sciences (17%) followed by Business and Administrative Studies (16%) and Social Studies (15%). The uptake of Business and Administrative Studies may reflect the region’s strong [performance in Financial and Business services as seen in Section 6. Business Base. 2014/15 total enrolment of students at HE Institutions, by subject Glasgow

In 2014/15, 59% of University of Stirling students graduated from an undergraduate course. The remaining 41% achieved a postgraduate qualification. This was a higher proportion of postgraduates than the national picture with 65% of all Scottish graduates completing a first degree and 35% completing a postgraduate course. 2014/15 university graduates by level of study Glasgow

Data on this and the following two slides was provided by the HESA Graduate Destinations Survey which surveys a sample of Higher Education Institutes graduates six months after leaving university. In 2014/15, the majority of University of Stirling graduates entered full-time or part-time work (76%), which was higher than the percentage nationally (72%). Of those surveyed 4% were unemployed, which was below the national trend (5%). 2014/15 university graduates by employment status Glasgow

In 2014/15, University of Stirling graduates went on to work in a range of occupations. The largest percentage (45%) were engaged as professionals and the smallest percentage (0.2%) as operatives. Proportionally more graduates from the University of Stirling went to work in higher level occupations compared to the trend nationally. 2014/15 university graduates by occupation Glasgow

In 2014/15, University of Stirling graduates worked in a wide range of industries. The largest group entered the education sector (21%) followed by health and social work sector (18%). This reflects health and education as two of the largest employing sectors in the region as seen in Section 7. Where are the Jobs. 2014/15 university graduates, employment by industry Glasgow

15. Forth Valley: Jobs and skills changes
This section will outline forecasted changes in employment from 2015 to 2024, and the nature of changing demand for qualifications in specific occupational areas. It will also consider longer term changes in the labour market and future expansion and replacement employment demand. In this section: Forecasts demand for jobs and how these may change Changing occupational and qualification demand Long-term changes in the labour market Glasgow

Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to rise by 0.2% per year on average over the period, matching the expected rate for Scotland as a whole. Growth at this pace equates to the creation of 1,700 additional jobs in the area by Decreases are expected in mining and public administration, with losses of 1,100 and 1,000 jobs respectively. The construction and administrative & support activities sectors however are expected to enjoy increases of 1,000 and 900 jobs respectively over the period. The professional, scientific and technical sector is also expected to experience significant job creation (700 jobs). Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Total Employment Growth Forth Valley Employment % annual average change Change in total jobs (‘000s), CHECK THIS Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people). The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job. Source: ONS / Oxford Economics Glasgow

The forecast flat employment growth is reflected in the relatively static occupational groupings. Professional and elementary occupations are expected to see some modest growth over the forecast (200 people) as are skilled trades occupations and caring, leisure and other service occupations (also 200 people). Declines however are expected over period for associate professional and technical occupations, administrative and secretarial occupations and process, plant and machines operatives (200 people each). Forecast Changes in Occupational Demand Forth Valley Employment Change in number of workers (‘000s), X axis isn’t right here. Note: chart uses total employment (people). Source: Oxford Economics ‘000s Glasgow

The majority of openings in Forth Valley over the forecast will require individuals with higher level qualifications, in part a reflection of the sectoral and occupational trends expected over this period. Individuals qualified to SCQF level 7 or above will account for 52% of the 42,800 openings expected to be created between 2016 and The remaining opportunities will mainly be for individuals qualified to SCQF levels 5-6, equivalent to 35% of openings over the forecast period. There will be limited demand for those with qualifications below this level. Forecast employment change by Qualification ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

Replacement demand will result in over 42,300 openings within Forth Valley region over the forecast. These openings will occur across all types of occupations including these that are expected to decline in net terms. Expansion demand is expected to result in 800 openings between However together with replacement demand, will result in 43,100 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in elementary and professional occupations, which are expected to experience both expansion and replacement demand over the period to 2024. Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

16. Forth Valley Region: What are the key implications?
The Regional Skills Assessments provide the national policy context, the national economic picture and trends and the regional position. The regional perspective covers in some depth the demand for skills, current and forecast, as well as skills activity in place to meet these needs. There is a wide range of data, with further data available in the accompanying data matrix. This final section draws out some of the key implications for improving the performance of labour markets. These are not solutions for partners, but rather implications from the analysis upon which skills investment planning decisions can be made. In this section: Review of the demand for skills Review of current skills activity to meet need Key implications for skills investment planning and recommended focus for action Glasgow

Forth Valley: Headline Summary (1)
. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics The Forth Valley economic recovery evident since 2012 is continuing, although jobs growth slowed considerably in 2015, as it has across Scotland. Nonetheless, there are 4,400 more jobs than in 2009, a 3.7% increase compared to 0.7% across Scotland. Growth since 2009 has been strongest in health, other public services and retail. Tourism-related employment has also grown, as have financial and businesses services and information and communications. The region has a certain specialism in these sectors, which are typically higher value added. Over the year to 2015, employment has continued to increase strongly in tourism (+1,000 in accommodation and food services), as well as other services, such as arts and related (+200). It has also increased in the production sector (+200), against the general sector trend, which accounts for 11% of all employment. The strength of the region as a professional and business services centre has been weakened by a contraction in 2015 of professional, scientific and technical services (-600) and business administration (-1,000), not off-set by the modest gains in finance and insurance services (+300). Glasgow

. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics (continued) Although increasing, there remain fewer employed in professional occupations than the Scotland average, and a greater proportion working in elementary occupations and as operatives, reflecting the manufacturing base. The region is not homogenous, with worker movements to, from and within the region. More than 1 in 4 from Stirling and Falkirk local authorities out-commutes from the region; more than a third of those in Clackmannanshire work elsewhere in Forth Valley. Those working out of the region access better paid jobs. More than 1 in 4 households in Clackmannanshire have incomes £10-15,000 per annum. 1 in 5 in Stirling have incomes above £40,000. This illustrates the inequality in the region. Jobs across the region pay just under the average, lowest in Clackmannanshire; residents in work in Stirling earn well above average. The new measure of unemployment including Universal Claimants has shown falling claimants, and this has been the case nationally. Slightly fewer are qualified to SCQF 7-12, when demand for these qualifications continues to increase. The population has increased, and will increase by 9% till 2037, above the Scotland rate, yet the working age population will fall, faster than for Scotland. Glasgow

. Skills Challenges Hard-to-fill vacancies, and skill shortage vacancies, are increasing in the region, although both remain below the Scotland average in terms of the share of the workforce. However, 10% of employers in Forth Valley report hard-to-fill vacancies, above the 8% for Scotland. Skills gaps are a proportionately greater issue in Forth Valley than across Scotland, notably in skilled trades. However, skills gaps are also above average amongst those employed in professional occupations and machine operatives. There are also more employers in the region reporting staff under-utilization of skills than average. Glasgow

. Skills Activity to Meet Current and Future Demand Work-based learning is critical to meeting skills development needs. There were 1,620 MA Starts in 2015/2016, a very modest uplift on the previous year, although the number of starts has fallen since 2011/2012 as they have across Scotland, indicating the continued challenge to increase work-based learning levels. The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect the composition of the regional economy – construction, retail & customer services, health & social care (with sport), administration & related. Engineering & energy is fifth, accounting for 8% of MAs, although this is a lower proportion than the sector share of employment in the region. Other services including ICT professionals and financial services are modestly represented given their importance to Scotland’s economy. There is a continuing gender imbalance in many MA frameworks and MAs are still not commonplace in some sectors such as the Creative Industries. Glasgow

. Future Trends There are expected to be 1,700 more jobs in the region by Employment growth is expected in professional, scientific & technical services and administrative & support services. The construction sector is also expected to grow, as will transport and storage, retail and accommodation and food services. Manufacturing is expected to decline. Replacement demand is expected to generate more than 40,000 openings to Half of these will be SCQF level 7 and above and 90% will be level 5 and above. This reaffirms the need for a strong skills base. The greatest number of openings will be in professional and elementary occupations, as well as sales, care, leisure and other services occupations and administration. Glasgow

Forth Valley: Key Implications (1)
. Recommended Areas of Focus Increasing the quality of jobs. The most significant recent employment growth has been in services, including tourism, and the region has not increased the number of higher value added services jobs. There is a need for Forth Valley to continue to make the transition to a more knowledge-based economy. Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills. There will continue to be extreme competitive pressures in manufacturing, as well as services, that will demand high levels of business innovation and a skilled workforce. Continuing to increase the number of local jobs. Out commuting from Stirling and Falkirk to Edinburgh and Glasgow is common. These jobs pay better than those in the region. Whilst it may not be possible to compete with the two cities, there must be sufficient opportunities for those wishing to work in the region. Glasgow

. Recommended Areas of Focus Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (1). There are key sectors and occupations in the regional economy where growth and replacement demand is strong, including tourism and skilled trades. Tourism has been a growth sector in Forth Valley. These require work-based learning routes into, and upwards, within sectors. Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (2). The health and social care sector is an important sector, and the ageing population in the region will have increasing care needs that will need to be met over time. The specific needs of the manufacturing sector must continue to be met. There will be challenging times ahead for the sector, yet it still contributes a disproportionate amount of output. Engineering & related skills needs in the region will need to be met by fit for purpose skills provision. Glasgow

. Recommended Areas of Focus A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations – and so progression to upper skills levels needs to be engendered and facilitated. Employment in the professional services has fallen, and the region needs to make sure there are sufficient skills to meet employer demand where this exists. A need to increase the pool of labour and to reduce inequality. There remain significant inequalities in the region, and there is a need to ensure that some groups do not become distanced from the labour market, or become entrenched in low pay sectors with limited progression opportunities. A need for flexible provision. Non-permanent employment is increasingly a feature of the Scotland economy and more of the future jobs are expected to be part-time. Non traditional employment also means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with Foundation Apprenticeships and work placement programmes such as the Certificate of Work Readiness a feature of this. Glasgow

Appendix: Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram
The Sector Growth diagram allows three pieces of sector information to be displayed, providing a useful overview of the local economy. The diagram includes: Sector size (in terms of employment) – shown through the relative size of the dot representing the sector. Sector concentration relative to the Scottish average – The level of concentration is illustrated on the vertical axis through the Location Quotient. The Location Quotient is a measure of the concentration of industry in an area compared to the national average. It produces an index whereby a score of 1 indicates the industry employment concentration is the same both in the local area and nationally, more than 1 represents a higher concentration and less than 1 a lower concentration. Sector average annual growth rate – The horizontal axis shows the average annual employment growth rate of each sector over the past five year period. The diagram includes four quadrants: Top right quadrant - sectors that have shown employment growth and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom right quadrant – sectors that have shown employment growth but are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Top left quadrant – sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom left quadrant - sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Click here to go back to the main presentation: Where are the Jobs (3) - Sector Specialisms

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