1. Regional Skills Assessments
Glasgow & Clyde Valley City Region
December 2016
Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire

2. Introduction An Introduction to Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)
Key Data for Glasgow & Clyde Valley Scotland City Region
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to RSAs

4. What are RSAs?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify regional strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment at a regional level.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do RSAs cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slide pack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. The Glasgow & Clyde Valley City Region RSA

9. Glasgow & Clyde Valley Overview
Significant share of total Scottish population, business base and wealth generation
Recent overall strong growth performance masks wide internal variation in social, economic and demographic trends including pockets of serious disadvantage with low skills and high rates of worklessness
Developing Regional Economic Development Strategy based around City Deal provides opportunities for partnership benefits and targeted interventions across eight councils
Glasgow and Clyde Valley

10. Business Trends
Growth of the business base in G&CV City Region area exceeds the Scottish rate (8.6%, v. 7.3%)
3,540 new businesses including: professional, scientific and technical (+750); business, admin and support services (+600); and arts, entertainment and recreation (+555)
98% of businesses are small or micro (<50 employees)
215 employ 250+ people (0.5% of total)
Business density is lower than the national rate (249 per 10,000 population v. 313)
The number of businesses in Growth Sectors increased by 5% over the past year (2015) but at 41% of all businesses, is below the national figure (46%)
Greater proportion of G&CV’s Growth Sector businesses are in Finance and business services and Creative industries (including ICT) than nationally (42% v. 36% and 26% v. 19%)
The proportion of Food and drink businesses is well below the national average (7% v. 23%)
Growth Sectors account for 24% of all employment
Glasgow and Clyde Valley

11. Sector Trends and Specialisms
Strong group of sectors in high representation and high growth quadrant, with concentration of high growth private sector services
Strong employment growth in health and information and communications
Significant job losses in professional, scientific and technical, the industrial economy and logistics
Explanation
The Sector Growth diagram allows three pieces of sector information to be displayed, providing a useful overview of the local economy. The diagram includes:
Sector size (in terms of employment) – shown through the relative size of the dot representing the sector.
Sector concentration relative to the Scottish average – The level of concentration is illustrated on the vertical axis through the Location Quotient. The Location Quotient is a measure of the concentration of industry in an area compared to the national average. It produces an index whereby a score of 1 indicates the industry employment concentration is the same both in the local area and nationally, more than 1 represents a higher concentration and less than 1 a lower concentration.
Sector average annual growth rate – The horizontal axis shows the average annual employment growth rate of each sector over the past five year period.
The diagram includes four quadrants:
Top right quadrant - sectors that have shown employment growth and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average
Bottom right quadrant – sectors that have shown employment growth but are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average
Top left quadrant – sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average
Bottom left quadrant - sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average
Note: SIC Section A: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing omitted as data for farm agriculture (SIC subclass 01000) is not available sub-nationally
Click here for explanation: Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram
Glasgow and Clyde Valley

12. Population and Projections
Population of 1,804,380
34% of Scotland’s total population
A small increase in the population over the year (+0.5%) in line with national growth
Population growth slower over the past ten years (+3% compared to +5% nationally)
Decline in population aged under 19 and while all other groups have grown
Population change
Forecast Population Growth, :
Total population forecast to grow by 4% (+67,200, half the Scotland wide rate) and the working age population forecast decline by 8% (-94,400)

13. Workforce Trends
Total employment in G&CV City Region area = 836,600 (33% of Scotland total)
42% work in higher level occupations
In line with the Scotland average despite a small decrease on the previous year
76% work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally
25% of the employed population work part time (fluctuating between 22% and 26% in the last 10 years).
6.8% are in non-permanent employment in G&CV City Region area (compared to 5.5% nationally)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.
Glasgow and Clyde Valley

14. Employment and Travel to Work
71% of working age residents in employment, slightly below Scotland’s employment rate (73%)
Place of Work of G&CV residents
Just over half of residents remain in their home local authority area to work
Over 90% work within the City Region area
The highest proportions of residents working in their home local authority are recorded in Inverclyde (66%) and Glasgow (62%)
East Renfrewshire has very low self-containment with just 18% of residents working in their home LA; over half commute to Glasgow City for work
Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or
with no fixed place of work
Glasgow and Clyde Valley

15. Unemployment and Participation
The unemployment rate is 7% of the economically active working age population and remains above pre-recession levels
Across the region, 90% of young people aged are participating, the same as Scotland-wide
The rate is highest in East Renfrewshire (96%) and lowest in Glasgow (87%)
4% are not participating
The rate is highest in West Dunbartonshire (6%) and lowest in East Renfrewshire (1%).
The remainder are unconfirmed (8% in Glasgow City)
Unemployment fell in nearly all LAs from 2014 to 2015, the decline varied from -2.2ppts in East Renfrewshire to -0.2ppts in North Lanarkshire. Inverclyde was the only LA to have an increase (0.9ppts). The region as a whole had a ppt decline of 1.0 which was greater than the -0.4ppt decline across Scotland as a whole.
Unemployment measure = ILO unemployed: actively seeking and available for work
Unemployment rate = unemployed as a % of economically active population
Glasgow and Clyde Valley

16. Qualifications and Skills
42% of working age adults hold SCQF qualifications at levels slightly lower than Scotland wide (43%)
As with Scotland, there is an upwards trend in qualifications
Qualification Change 2005 – 2015:
Variations within the area with East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire reporting a rate 11 percentage points above average
North Lanarkshire, Inverclyde and West Dunbartonshire significantly below average
Workforce qualified at levels 7-12:
Glasgow and Clyde Valley

17. Skills Mismatches
Employers recruiting over past year (2015) = 53% in Glasgow, 57% in Lanarkshire, 47% in West
% of employers with a skills gap in the current workforce = 11% in Glasgow, 14% in Lanarkshire and 12% in West (compared to 13% nationally)
Lower proportion of the workforce with a skills gap than nationally (less than 4% v. 5%)
% of employers with at least one hard-to-fill vacancy = 9% in Glasgow, 8% in Lanarkshire and West (8% nationally)
Employers in Glasgow and Lanarkshire are more likely to report skills under-utilisation than nationally
% of employers with skills gaps who say it impacts on the business = 73% in Glasgow, 66% in West and 59% in Lanarkshire
Percentage of employers reporting skills under-utilisation and skills gaps in their workforce:
Glasgow and Clyde Valley

18. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 98,753 pupils, 35% of Scotland total
92% school leavers had a positive
destination in 2015, in line with the national average
9,105 MA starts in 2015/16, down by 0.4% on previous year (whilst national increase of 2%)
Construction is the most popular MA framework group, 20% of uptake
Heavily gender segregated - 99% male
MA achievement rates up by 2ppt from 2014/15 to 76% (same as nationally)

19. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, there were 86,625 enrolments at colleges in the Glasgow City Deal region
31% of Scotland’s total
76% FE and 22% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Business, management & admin, Care and Art & Design
Part-time: Computing & ICT, Languages & ESOL and Special Programmes
65% successful completion of FE courses
There were 73,175 students at the six HEIs in the region in 2014/15
32% of Scotland’s total
Top three subjects:
Business & Admin, Subjects Allied to Medicine and Engineering
Note: HE/FE data is available at regional level only. Glasgow City Deal region is a composite of Glasgow Region and Lanarkshire data sets. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

20. Workforce Growth
The size of the working age population is expected to decrease significantly in the Glasgow City Region area over the next 20 years, falling faster than nationally
Less people of working age poses challenges to raising GVA through increasing the number of people in work
Plus, challenge in providing the skilled labour employers need as older workers retire
The Glasgow City Region area is forecast to experience employment growth of 1.2% from 2016 to 2024, slightly above national forecast growth of 1.0%
This equates to 10,800 additional jobs in the area
This is a slower rate of growth than what was experienced from 2006 to 2016, when the number of jobs increased by 4.0%
Despite the forecast employment growth, improving productivity will become the key determining factor in increasing economic prosperity
Note: analysis uses total employment (people) rather than total employment (jobs).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Glasgow and Clyde Valley

21. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to increase by 0.2% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, the same as the equivalent rate expected for Scotland as a whole. Administrative and support activities and construction are expected to enjoy growth of 10,900 jobs and 5,600 jobs respectively in the region over the period The professional, scientific and technical sector is also expected to grow significantly, creating 4,400 jobs. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the manufacturing sector and public administration and defence. The number of jobs within manufacturing is expected to fall by 7,000 over the forecast., whilst those in public administration and defence are forecast to fall by nearly 6,000 jobs.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Glasgow & Clyde Valley City Deal Region Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

22. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in over 347,900 openings within Glasgow City & Clyde Valley City l Region over the forecast. Expansion demand is expected to increase by 11,200 between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 359,100 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in professional occupations and elementary occupations, experiencing both expansion and replacement demand. The total requirement for workers sales and customer service occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period, again expected to experience both expansion and replacement demand
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

23. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

24. Key Implications (1) Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics.
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
The strong jobs recovery in 2013 and 2014 in the Glasgow City Region continued in 2015, albeit at a slower rate. There were over 10,000 more jobs across the region in 2015 than the previous year, a 1.2% increase, at a time of almost no jobs growth for Scotland as a whole. There are now just 1% and 6,000 fewer jobs in the City region than in 2009, although this shows just how many jobs were lost in the recession and the time it has taken to recover.
The pattern of jobs growth has not been even across the City Region. Employment gains in 2015 were strongest in Renfrewshire (+12.1%), followed by West Dunbartonshire (+4.0%) and East Dunbartonshire (+2.3%). The increase in Glasgow City was modest (+0.3%), and there were job losses in North Lanarkshire (-2.0%) and in Inverclyde (-2.6%).
There were also sector shifts in There were increases in health (+5,800), public administration (+3,100) and education (+2,100), and in accommodation & food services (+5,600) reflecting tourism growth and changes on the high street, where there were significant retail job losses (-3,200). The well-represented businesses administration & support services also contracted (-3,800). Jobs in production continue to fall (-3,300). The challenge across the City Region remains growing higher value added private sector jobs.
Glasgow

25. Key Implications (2) .
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics (continued)
The business base in the Glasgow City Region has shown strong and above average growth, including in professional, scientific and technical services and the creative industries. Output has increased alongside the job recovery, although output per worker varies across the region with the local sector mix.
Although they have increased, business start-up rates are still below the Scotland average, which in turn is well below the UK rate. Survival rates also lag. Starting and growing more businesses, particularly in higher value added sectors, is a key route to increasing output and jobs.
There has been population growth in the City Region, although the rate of growth over the last 10 years has been slower than that for Scotland. This masks changes within the region, with depopulation continuing in the west of the region and notable growth in Glasgow City, especially amongst those aged Managing these demographic shifts and creating employment opportunities across the City Region remains a challenge.
Wealth is not evenly distributed, and there are significant concentrations of relative deprivation which have not fallen. Some parts of the region are dominated by out-commuting to Glasgow for higher paid jobs. Increasing access to opportunity across the region should be a priority.
Glasgow

26. Key Implications (3) Skills demand and supply.
Skills demand and supply
The Glasgow City Region has just above the Scotland average employed in professional occupations, although this proportion again varies considerably within the region. There are also higher proportions in administrative & secretarial roles, as well as sales and care, reflecting the sector mix. Replacement demand is highest in these, along with professional and elementary occupations. There are expected to be almost 350,000 openings to 2037, far higher than the 20,000 total increase in jobs, and there will be a real need to meet employer demand.
In all, four in 10 from the City Region go into Higher Education, the highest of all City Regions, although this masks considerable variations within the region.
The top MA frameworks by take-up are construction, health and social care (with sport), administration & related, retail & customer service and hospitality & tourism. Others services (including ICT professionals) less so.
Glasgow

27. Key Implications (4) Recommended Areas of Focus.
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for Glasgow City Deal region include:
Continuing to increase the quality of jobs. A key element of the City Region Skills Investment Plan is to improve productivity and competitiveness. Although Glasgow City will be a driver, this must extend as widely as possible across the region.
Ensure a good supply of well qualified labour – growing and retaining the higher level skills base, plus encouraging employer investment in higher skilled employees.
Meeting the skills needs of employers – there are important regional sectors and occupations where replacement demand is strong, including business administration, sales and customer services and hospitality & tourism. Skills activity must continue to be focused on employer demand.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels. Progression needs engendered and supported.
Increasing the labour pool and addressing inequality – the numbers experiencing relative deprivation have not fallen significantly in the most recent measure.
A need to meet the region’s infrastructure needs. This will require adequate construction, engineering and professional skills.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow

28. Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram
The Sector Growth diagram allows three pieces of sector information to be displayed, providing a useful overview of the local economy. The diagram includes: Sector size (in terms of employment) – shown through the relative size of the dot representing the sector. Sector concentration relative to the Scottish average – The level of concentration is illustrated on the vertical axis through the Location Quotient. The Location Quotient is a measure of the concentration of industry in an area compared to the national average. It produces an index whereby a score of 1 indicates the industry employment concentration is the same both in the local area and nationally, more than 1 represents a higher concentration and less than 1 a lower concentration. Sector average annual growth rate – The horizontal axis shows the average annual employment growth rate of each sector over the past five year period. The diagram includes four quadrants: Top right quadrant - sectors that have shown employment growth and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom right quadrant – sectors that have shown employment growth but are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Top left quadrant – sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom left quadrant - sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average
Click here to go back to the main presentation: Sector Trends and Specialisms