1. Perth & Kinross December 2016
Skills Assessments
Perth & Kinross
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for Perth & Kinross
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slidepack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
Borders Aberdeenshire, Angus, Argyll and Bute, Clackmannanshire, Dundee, Fife, Highland and Stirling
Mix of rural and urban
High GVA growth although productivity remains slightly below national average
Low representation of high value sectors (Info & communications, financial & insurance, and professional, scientific and technical)
Forecast growth in the working age population
High levels of GVA, productivity and employment growth forecast

9. Business Trends
Growth of the business base similar to the Scottish rate (7.1% v. 7.3%) in 2015
400 new businesses including: Professional, Scientific and Technical (+90), Business Administration and Support Services (+75) and Construction (45+)
98% of businesses are small or micro (<50 employees)
15 businesses employ more than 250 people
401 businesses per 10,000 population compared to 313 nationally
14.3% self employment in Perth and Kinross, higher than the national figure (10.8%)
In 2015, Number of Growth Sector businesses grew by 3% to 2,825
37% of total employment in Growth Sectors (compared to 28% nationally) in 2015
Growth Sector businesses highly concentrated in Food and Drink, and below average proportion in Financial and Business Services, and Creative Industries in 2015
The Growth Sectors are: Food and Drink, Financial and Business Services, Life Sciences, Energy (including Renewables), Sustainable Tourism (Tourism related Industries) and Creative Industries (including Digital)

10. Population and Projections
Population of 149,930 in 2015
2.8% of Scotland’s total population
0.7% rise in population compared to 0.5% rise nationally
Between 2005 and 2015, Perth and Kinross saw strong population growth of +9% compared to +5% nationally
Growth in Perth and Kinross has been driven by those aged of 65+ (+25%) which is in line with national trends
Forecast Population Growth :
Total population forecast to grow by 24% (+35,700), nearly three times the national rate of 9%
Working age population forecast to grow by 12% in contrast to a fall nationally

11. Workforce Trends Total employment in Perth and Kinross = 63,900
2.3% increase over the year, in line with the region but lower than Scotland (3.2%) and GB (2.7%)
In 2015, 41% work in higher level occupations, in line with the national average of 42%
81% of employed population work in the private sector compared to 77% nationally
28% of employees work part-time, a slight increase from 25% since last year, and just above the national average (26%)
5.2% of people in employment are in non-permanent jobs, slightly less than the national figure (5.4%)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate in Perth and Kinross was 79% in 2015, 3ppts higher than the previous year, and above the national rate (73%)
77% of employed residents work in Perth and Kinross
10% work elsewhere in the region
13% work outside the region
Key areas for out-commuting include Dundee (9%), Fife (4%) and Edinburgh (3%)
The unemployment rate in Perth and Kinross was below the national average (5% v. 6%) in 2015, unemployment fell by -0.1ppts from 2014 which was less than the national decline (-0.4ppts) over the same period
93% of year olds in Perth and Kinross are participating, and 3% are not, a higher participation rate than Scotland (90%)
Unemployment = ILO measure, i.e. those who are available for and actively seeking work
Unemployment rate: Unemployed as a percentage of the economically active population

13. Qualifications and Earnings
In 2015, a higher proportion of working age adults in Perth and Kinross (47%) hold SCQF Level 7-12 qualifications than in Scotland (43%) and the UK (37%)
Both resident and workplace earnings in Perth and Kinross are in line with national averages (£517 v. £527)

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 7,494, 2.7% of Scotland total
94% school leavers had a positive
destination in 2015, compared with 92% across Scotland
MA uptake increased by 17%, from 2014/15 to 875
3% of national total in 2015/16
Hospitality & Tourism most popular MA framework group
18% of uptake
Good gender parity, 51% female, 49% male
76% achievement rate 2015/16

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at Dundee & Angus College and Perth College there were 24,315 enrolments
9% of Scotland’s total
88% FE and 12% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Business management, Care and Engineering
Part-time: Special Programmes, Languages & ESOL and Care
73% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 19,000 students at the two HEIs in the region in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Business & Admin, Subjects Allied to Medicine and Engineering
HE/FE data is available at regional level only. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in Angus, Dundee and Perth and Kinross not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to increase by 0.2% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, the same as the equivalent rate expected for Scotland as a whole. Such a growth equates to 500 more jobs in the region by Administrative and support and professional, scientific and technical activities are expected to enjoy growth of 600 and 400 respectively over the forecast. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the public and agriculture sectors. The number of jobs within public administration and defence is expected to fall by 400 jobs and the number of jobs within agriculture is expected to fall by 300 jobs over the forecast.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Perth and Kinross Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 18,400 openings within Perth and Kinross over the forecast. Expansion demand is expected to grow by 600 openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 19,000 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in elementary and professional occupations , with both experiencing replacement and expansion demand. The total requirement for workers in skilled trades and sales and customer services is also expected to rise significantly over the period.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. Perth & Kinross: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
Strong levels of employment growth Perth & Kinross in 2013 and 2014 fell back in 2015, reflecting the fragility of the economic recovery. There were 700 fewer jobs in 2015 than the previous year, bringing employment back down to 2009 levels.
There have been shifts in sector composition in Job losses were greatest in retail (-800), education (-300), agriculture, forestry & fishing (-300) and motor trades (-300). There was also a slight contraction in financial, business and professional services. At the same time there were increases accommodation and food services jobs (+1,000), already concentrated in Perth & Kinross, although these will typically be low paid and lower value added. There were also small gains in the production sector (+300), an important sector locally.
The business base grew in 2015, and at a rates close to the Scotland average for the first time in five years. Overall output has increased too. Nonetheless, there remain lower levels of productivity measured by GVA per worker, a result of the over-representation of lower value added services, in particular tourism, and the under-representation of higher value added professional and related services. This is slowing the transition to a knowledge-based economy.
Glasgow

20. Perth & Kinross: Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
The population has grown strongly and is forecast to be increase at almost three times the Scotland rate to 2037, almost 36,000. The resident population is relatively affluent, with more than average qualified to SCQF level 3 and above.
Despite an increasing proportion in professional occupations, this is still lower than the Scotland average. There are more than average proportions in skilled trade and elementary occupations, reflecting traditional employment sectors, and care. Replacement demand will provide more than 18,000 openings, greatest in elementary, skilled trades and sales (all already important) and professionals.
A slightly higher proportion than the national average go into employment after school from Perth & Kinross.
The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect the composition of the regional economy – hospitality & tourism, retail & customer services, construction, health & social care (with sport) and administration & related, although few are engineering & energy.
Glasgow

21. Perth & Kinross: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for Perth & Kinross include:
Increasing the number of local jobs. Recent job losses across several sectors indicate the weakness of the economic recovery.
Increasing the quality of jobs. Higher value added services are under-represented, and are not increasing to any significant extent.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills.
Meeting the skills needs of employers. There are important local sectors, including tourism (a key growth sector), health (where the growing population will place further demands) and manufacturing. Local skills activity should continue to be focused on employer demand.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations, as well as skilled trades and sales. Progression needs engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow