1. Skills Assessments
Inverclyde
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for Inverclyde
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slidepack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
An area adjusting to the decline of traditional industries, with a narrow employment base in some areas, and experiencing on-going recovery from recession
Parts of the area face severe population decline with efforts to stabilise and attract new people to work and live
A number of City Deal projects in pipeline to boost infrastructure and attractiveness as place to live and work, and building on existing regeneration work that is strongly aligned with local strategy

9. Business Trends
Positive growth trend in business numbers maintained in 2015
135 new businesses including: Professional, Scientific and Technical (+35); and Business Administration and support services (+35)
87% businesses have 0-9 employees (Scotland 88%)
Relatively low business density of 202 (per 10,000 population) (Scotland 313)
Self-employment equal highest in 10 years at 10.6%, increasing 3% from last year (Scotland 10.8%)
Business in Growth Sectors close to Scottish average in 2015
Concentrations of businesses in Financial & Business Services (44%), Sustainable Tourism (24%), and Creative Industries (21%)
However, only 23% of employment in Growth Sectors

10. Population and Projections
Total population of 79,500 (1.5% of Scotland) in 2015
Population change
Population change demonstrating loss of younger age cohorts relative to those aged 65+
The ‘ageing’ of the population is more pronounced than the Scottish average
Forecast Population Growth,
De-population problem which is counter to wider national picture, set to continue
Total population to decrease by 15,666 (15%)
Working age population set to decrease by 18,327 (35%)

11. Workforce Trends
Total employment in Inverclyde of 30,300 (1% of Scottish total)
5.6% increase over the year, higher than the West region (4.8%) and exceeding national figure (3.2%)
39% work in higher level occupations in 2015, above Scottish average of 42%
71% of employed population work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally
27% of employees work part-time, down from 28% since last year, and below national average (26%)
3.9% of people in employment are in non-permanent jobs, compared to 5.3% nationally
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate is relatively low at 68% (73% nationally) in 2015, and declined by 2ppt in most recent period
66% of employed residents work in home LA
26% working in rest of the West region
Out-commuting mainly to neighbouring LA areas including Glasgow City (14.5%) and Renfrewshire (10.8%)
The unemployment rate in Inverclyde was above the national average (9% v. 6%) in 2015, unemployment increased by 0.9ppts whilst nationally it declined (-0.4ppts) over the same period
91% of year olds in Inverclyde are participating in 2016, and 5% are not, broadly mirroring Scotland’s participation rates

13. Qualifications and Earnings
A lower proportion of working age adults in Inverclyde (35%) hold SCQF qualifications at levels 7-12 than at national level in 2015
Inverclyde’s resident and workplace earnings broadly correspond with the national average

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 4,293, 9.7% of Scotland total
91% school leavers had a positive
destination in 2015, compared to 92% across Scotland
MA uptake decreased by 5%, from 2014/15 to 385
1% of national total in 2015/16
Retail & Customer Service most popular MA framework group
13% of uptake
Slightly gender segregated, 60% male
74% achievement rate 2015/16

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at West College Scotland, there were 25,925 enrolments
9% of Scotland’s total
87% FE and 13% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Hairdressing, Beauty & Comp therapies, Care and Business, management
Part-time: Care, Special Programmes & Business, management
64% successful completion of FE courses
There were 7,800 students at the University of West Scotland Paisley Campus in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Subjects Allied to Medicine, Business & Admin Studies and Computer Sciences
HE/FE data is available at West regional level only and comprises data for Inverclyde, Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA
Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to decrease by 0.1% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, an equivalent rate of 0.2% growth is expected for Scotland as a whole. Such a fall equates to 300 less jobs in the region by Administrative and support and information and communication activities are expected to enjoy growth of 200 and 100 jobs respectively over the forecast. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within manufacturing, public and sectors. The number of jobs in manufacturing, public administration and defence and education are all expected to fall by 200 jobs over the forecast.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Inverclyde Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 13,200 openings within Inverclyde over the forecast. Expansion demand is expected to fall by 200 openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 13,000 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in elementary and professional occupations, with both driven by replacement demand. The total requirement for workers and sales and customer service, caring, leisure and other service and administrative and secretarial occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. Inverclyde: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
The jobs recovery evident in 2013 and 2014 fell back in 2015, where there was a loss of 800 jobs. This reflects the fragility of the economic recovery in Inverclyde and there was little jobs growth across Scotland as a whole. There are just 200 more jobs in Inverclyde now compared to 2009.
Jobs losses in 2015 were greatest in the health sector (-700), the higher value added information and communications sector (-400) and in production (-300). At the same time there were increases in accommodation & food services (+400) and in business administration & support (+200). However, Some 23% of all employees still work in the health sector and Inverclyde remains overly reliant on the public sector, where job losses of 600 are forecast over the period to There continues to be the challenge to grow private sector jobs.
Nonetheless, the business base in Inverclyde has shown strong recent growth, including growth in business and professional services, although business density remains well below the Scotland average. There has been recent output growth following a protracted period of decline although job losses may undermine this improvement. Growing small businesses is one route to employment growth.
Glasgow

20. Inverclyde: Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
The population has continued to fall in the last 10 years at a time of growth across Scotland as a whole. Forecasts suggest this may fall further by 15% to 2037, with a loss in the working age population of 35%. Reversing this depopulation is important for the local economy, and remains a priority for local stakeholders.
More than the Scotland average are in professional occupations, but more of these jobs are outside Inverclyde. Elementary, administrative, sales and care occupations are also above the Scotland average, reflecting local jobs, and replacement demand is expected n all these occupations, some 13,000 openings, despite the overall forecast reduction in jobs. There will also be replacement demand amongst professional occupations.
A slightly higher proportion than the Scotland average go into Further Education from school.
The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect the local economy – retail & customer services, health and social care (with sport), engineering & energy, other services (including ICT professionals) – a positive sign - and construction.
Glasgow

21. Inverclyde: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for Inverclyde include:
Reversing depopulation and growing local jobs – population loss has been closely related to the loss of traditional sector employment including manufacturing, and more local jobs will be the biggest determinant of future population growth.
Reducing reliance on public sector jobs – growing the private sector employment base and local higher value added services should continue to be a priority.
Meeting the skills needs of employers – there are important local sectors and occupations, including health, administration linked to business services, sales and customer services. There will be strong replacement demand for these. Local skills activity should continue to be focused on employer demand.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills locally is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations, also care and sales. Progression needs engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow