1. Skills Assessments
East Lothian
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for East Lothian
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland (SDS), Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development (SLAED) Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, regional colleges, strategic bodies and college boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for academic years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of seven workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slide pack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
A small, largely rural local authority that benefits from its proximity to Edinburgh with almost half of all employed residents working in the city
A generally affluent area but with pockets of persistent deprivation
Productivity (GVA per worker) is low
As part of the Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Deal Region, it stands to benefit from significant investment over the next 20 years
Strong arts and entertainment sector along and tourism related employment

9. Business Trends
Growth of the business base in 2015 slightly below the Scottish rate (5.8% v. 7.3%)
160 new businesses in East Lothian, including: Professional, Scientific and Technical (+50), Business Administration and Support Services (+40) and Information & Communication (+25)
99% of businesses are small or micro (<50 employees)
30 business employ more than 50 people
284 businesses per 10,000 population compared to 313 nationally
16.0% self employment in East Lothian, much higher than the national figure (10.8%)
In 2015, number of Growth Sector businesses grew by 4% to 1,415
48% of local businesses were in a Growth Sector, this is a greater proportion than Scotland as a whole (46%)
30% of employment in Growth Sectors in 2014 (compared to 28% nationally)
Profile of Growth Sector businesses by sector very similar to Scotland profile
The Growth Sectors are: Food and Drink, Financial and Business Services, Life Sciences, Energy (including Renewables), Sustainable Tourism (Tourism related Industries) and Creative Industries (including Digital)

10. Population and Projections
Population of 103,050 in 2015
1.9% of Scotland’s total population
Small increase in population over the year (+0.9%), slightly higher than growth nationally (+0.5%)
Over the past ten years ( ), East Lothian saw strong population growth (+11%, compared to +5% nationally)
As with the national picture, growth has been driven by those over the age of 65 (+23%), although there has been growth across all age groups (whilst decline in 0-15 year olds in Scotland)
Forecast Population Growth, :
Total population forecast to grow by 23% (+23,500), over double the Scotland wide rate, and the working age population by 8% (+4,900) compared to a fall nationally

11. Workforce Trends
Total employment in East Lothian = 28,200
In 2015, 44% work in higher level occupations, just above the Scottish average of 42%
76% of employed population work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally in 2015
31% of employees work part-time in 2014, an increase from 28% since 2013, and above the national average (26%)
5.3% of people in employment are in non-permanent jobs in 2015, similar to the national figure (5.4%)
At 16.0%, the rate of self employment in 2015 is well above Scotland’s rate (10.8%)
2.9% increase since 2013, slightly lower than the national figure (3.1%)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate in East Lothian in 2015 is 75%, 1ppt higher than the previous year, and above the national rate (73%)
43% of employed residents work in East Lothian
52% work elsewhere in the Edinburgh, East and Midlothian region
The key area for out-commuting is Edinburgh City (46% of all employed residents)
The unemployment rate in East Lothian in 2015 was the same as the national average (6%), unemployment remained static compared a -0.4ppt decline nationally over the same period
91% of year olds in East Lothian are participating in 2016, and 3% are not, a slightly higher participation rate than Scotland as a whole (90%)
Unemployment = ILO measure, i.e. those who are available for and actively seeking work
Unemployment rate: Unemployed as a percentage of the economically active population

13. Qualifications and Earnings
In 2015, at 42%, a slightly lower proportion of working age adults in East Lothian hold SCQF Level 7-12 qualifications than in Scotland (43%), though this is higher than the UK
(37%)
East Lothian’s average resident earnings (£558) is above the national level, although average workplace earnings (£519) is closer to the national average

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 5,600, 2% of Scotland’s total
91% of school leavers had a positive destination in 2015, compared to 92% nationally
MA uptake increased by 6% from 2014/15 to 505
2% of national total in 2015/16
Construction is the most popular MA framework group
16% of uptake
Heavily gender segregated - 100% male
74% MA achievement rate 2015/16

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at Edinburgh College and Newbattle Abbey College there were 20,585 enrolments
7% of Scotland’s total
77% FE and 23% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Business, management & administration, Engineering, Art & design
Part-time: Languages & ESOL, Care, Engineering
65% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 60,000 students at the five HEIs in the region in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Business & Admin, Subjects Allied to Medicine and Biological Sciences
HE/FE data is available at Edinburgh, East and Midlothian regional level only and comprises data for City of Edinburgh, East Lothian and Midlothian. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to increase by 0.2% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, the same as the equivalent rate expected for Scotland as a whole. Such growth equates to 600 additional jobs in the region by Construction, arts etc. and professional, scientific and technical activities are expected to have growth of 200 jobs each over the period. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the public, manufacturing, agriculture and utilities sectors. The number of jobs within manufacturing is expected to fall by 200 over the forecast, whilst those in the public, agriculture and utilities sectors will fall by 100 jobs each.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
East Lothian Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in just over 10,500 openings within East Lothian over the forecast period. Expansion demand is expected to grow by 254 openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in around 10,800 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in professional and elementary occupations, driven mainly by replacement demand. The total requirement for workers in skilled trades and caring, leisure and other service occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period, again driven largely by replacement demand.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. East Lothian: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
The strong employment growth evident in East Lothian in 2013 and 2014 slowed in 2015, in line with limited jobs growth for Scotland as a whole. There were 100 new jobs in 2015, although overall there are 1,900 and 7% more jobs than in 2009.
There were sector shifts in There were job increases in accommodation & food services (+400) and public sector services of health (+100), education (+100) and public administration & defense (+100). At the same time, there were losses in a number of sectors, including wholesale & retail (-200), production (-100) continuing long-term jobs decline, and in the locally important arts, entertainment & recreation sector. There continues to be a challenge to create higher value added service jobs locally in East Lothian given the presence of the neighbouring City of Edinburgh.
The business base has continued to grow strongly, although the rate of growth has started to slow, and overall output growth since the recession has also continued. Output per worker however remains below the Scotland average, reflecting the lower value added sector mix. East Lothian has the challenge of maintaining the local employment base and continuing the move to a knowledge-based economy.
Glasgow

20. East Lothian: Key Implications (2).
Skills Demand and Supply
The population has grown at more than twice the Scotland rate and is forecast to continue to do so, with 23,500 more people by The working age population will grow by 10%, however almost half of all those in work commute to the City of Edinburgh. Growing the number of local jobs will be important.
There are more people employed in the professional occupations than the Scotland average, and with replacement demand, these jobs will offer the greatest number of openings. In all, whilst there will be a limited number of new jobs, replacement demand will create 10,000 opening in professional, elementary, care and sales. There will be a challenge to meet local employer demand given competition for labour and the ease of commuting to Edinburgh.
More than a third go into employment from school, higher than the national average.
The top MA frameworks by take-up mirror the local economy – construction, administration & related, retail & customer services, health & social care (with sport) and hospitality & tourism.
Glasgow

21. East Lothian: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for East Lothian include:
Increasing the number of local jobs. Recent jobs growth has slowed and local jobs will help sustain the growing East Lothian population.
Increasing the quality of jobs. There is good representation in higher value added professional services, and growing this will further strengthen the employment base.
Encouraging a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills.
Meeting the skills needs of employers. There are important local sectors, including manufacturing, health and tourism. Local skills activity should continue to be focused on employer demand.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations, as well as care, sales and also in skilled trades. Progression needs to be encouraged and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow