1. Regional Skills Assessments
Glasgow Region
December 2016
Glasgow

2. Introduction An Introduction to Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)
Key Data for the Glasgow Region
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to RSAs

4. What are RSAs?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland (SDS), Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group (SLAED).
Purpose:
Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify regional strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment at a regional level.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do RSAs cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of seven workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slide pack provides a summary of the data for this area.

8. Glasgow Region Overview
A diverse economy, the RSA area includes Glasgow City, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire
Benefiting from its central location at the hub of Scotland’s transport network with easy access to jobs and markets in the central belt, although parts of the region are more rural and remote
Benefiting from the successful transformation of the Glasgow economy to a service driven economy with a strong cultural and tourism offer and large health and education sectors
A region with considerable strengths but facing challenges to reduce concentrations of low income and workless households in some areas
Glasgow

9. Business Trends
Growth in business numbers slightly out-paced national growth
+1,710 businesses to 21,950 in total, +8.4% compared to +7.3% nationally
Concentrated in 3 sectors: professional, scientific and technical (+405); administrative and support services (+290); other service activities (+245)
Growth strongest in Glasgow City (9%)
97% of businesses (21,355) are small or micro (<50 employees), 125 employ 250+
272 businesses per 10,000 population, compared to 313 per 10,000 nationally
Despite recent growth, only 44% of businesses are in Growth Sectors (46% nationally)
Greater proportion of Glasgow region Growth Sector businesses are in Finance and Business Services (43% v. 35%) and Creative Industries than nationally (30% v. 19%), with far fewer in the food and drink sector (2% v. 22%)
Growth Sectors account for 27% of regional employment
Glasgow

10. Sector Trends and Specialisms
Very strong group of sectors in high representation and high growth quadrant, with high concentration in high growth private sector services.
Strong employment growth in three large sectors - health, education and retail – in addition to business administration and ICT.
Significant job losses in the industrial economy, logistics and professional, scientific and technical sectors.
Note: SIC Section A: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing omitted as data for farm agriculture (SIC subclass 01000) is not available sub-nationally
Click here for explanation: Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram
Glasgow

11. Population and Projections
15% of Scotland total (2015)
Increased slightly faster than national growth rate (+5.4% compared to +5.1% nationally) and (+0.9% compared to +0.5%)
Population change :
Driven by growth in year olds in Glasgow City (+31%, 26,800) which accounts for 65% of population growth across Glasgow region
Population change much lower in E. D’shire (+1%) and E. R’shire (+3%)
All three areas have seen decline in the number of year olds
Forecast Population Growth, :
Population expected to grow more quickly than in Scotland as a whole (+10% compared to +8%)
The working age population will also grow compared to a national fall (+2% compared to -4%)
Over the longer term, the age structure of the region’s population will become older, although less markedly than other areas
Glasgow

12. Employment and Travel to Work
69% of working age residents are in employment, somewhat lower than the Scottish average (73%) and just 67% in Glasgow City (2015)
Place of Work of Residents, by Local Authority:
High levels of out-commuting from E. D’shire and E. R’shire to Glasgow City
Glasgow City is the most self-contained labour market, with 76% of those employed working locally
Key destinations for out-commuting are South Lanarkshire (4.2%) & North Lanarkshire (3.8%) and Renfrewshire (5.5%)
Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or
with no fixed place of work. Also, location of employment for East Dunbartonshire refers to the Lanarkshire region; and East Renfrewshire refers to the West region
Glasgow

13. Workforce Trends 49% work in higher level occupations (2015)
Total employment in Glasgow = 451,200
3.5% increase
Slightly exceeding the 3.2% increase across Scotland and GB (2.7%)
49% work in higher level occupations (2015)
All three Local Authority areas above Scotland average (42%) but overall slight fall from the previous year particularly within Glasgow City
Proportion high and growing in E. D’shire and E. R’shire (+2.7%, +5.4%)
79% work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally
26% of those in employment work part-time with the percentage fluctuating between 22% and 27% over the past 10 years
6.2% are in non-permanent employment, a higher percentage than nationally (5.4%) and rising to 6.7% in Glasgow City
Nationally, 2.2% are employed on zero hours contracts
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.
Glasgow

14. Unemployment and Participation
Unemployment rate falling but remains above Scottish (6%) and UK averages (5%)
Unemployment in the region fell by -1.4ppts which was greater than the national decline (-0.4ppts) from 2014 to 2015.
Within the region the unemployment rate was highest in Glasgow City (9%) and lowest (4%) East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire.
Participation of young people aged is in line with the Scottish rate of 90%
Unemployment rate: Unemployed as a percentage of the economically active population
Glasgow

15. Qualifications and Skills
The workforce has been increasingly well-qualified between 2005 and 2015:
Increase in the proportion holding level 7+ qualifications and increasing at a faster rate than nationally
Significant decrease in the proportion with no qualifications
With more working age adults holding SCQF qualifications at levels 7-12 than the national and UK average
Strong performance at the regional level and across all local authorities
Glasgow

16. Skills Mismatches
53% of Glasgow Region businesses have recruited staff over the past year (2015), the same as nationally
Skills shortages are slightly more prevalent than nationally
Hard-to-fill vacancies due to skills shortages account for 1.1% of the workforce, compared to 0.8% in Scotland as a whole
4% of the workforce have skills gaps compared to 5% nationally.
Glasgow employers are somewhat less likely to report skills gaps but more likely to report under-utilisation of skills
Skills gaps particularly prevalent in sales & customer services staff
73% of employers with a skills gap say there is an impact on the business (70% nationally)

17. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The school roll in 2015 was 40,149, 14.3% of Scotland total
92% of school leavers had a positive
destination in 2015, in line with the national rate
Modern Apprenticeship (MA) uptake decreased by 2% from 2014/15 to 3,370
13% of national total in 2015/16
Construction is the most popular MA framework group
22% of uptake
Heavily gender segregated - 98% male

18. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, there were 64,630 enrolments at Glasgow City College, Glasgow Clyde College and Glasgow Kelvin College
23% of Scotland’s total
75% FE and 25% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Business, management & admin, Art & Design and Care
Part-time: Computing & ICT, Languages & ESOL and Special Programmes
67% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 69,000 students at the five HEIs in the region in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Business & Admin, Subjects Allied to Medicine and Engineering
HE/FE data is available at regional level only. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

19. Workforce Growth
The size of the working age population is expected increase slightly in the Glasgow Region over the next 20 years, compared to a fall nationally
9,000 more people of working age, providing some scope to raise GVA through increasing the number of people in work
Challenge in providing the skilled labour employers need as older workers retire
The Glasgow region is forecast to experience the second highest rate of employment growth of all 13 regions, increasing by 2.5% over the period. Overall an additional 12,200 people will be in employment
This is a lower rate of growth than what was experienced from 2006 to 2016, when the number of people in employment increased by 8.6%
Note: analysis uses total employment (people) rather than total employment (jobs).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Despite the forecast employment growth, improving productivity will become the key determining factor in increasing economic prosperity
Glasgow

20. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to rise by 0.4% per year over the period, twice the rate of 0.2% expected for Scotland. Such growth equates to 17,700 additional jobs in the area by Administrative & support and professional, scientific & technical activities are expected to account for over half of new jobs (10,400) in the area over the period. The construction sector is also expected to experience significant job creation (2,700 jobs). In contrast, jobs losses are expected within manufacturing (2,600 jobs) and public administration & defence (2,800 jobs).
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Glasgow Region Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

21. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Growth is expected across all occupations over the forecast period, with the exception of administrative and secretarial occupations, which is expected to see a decline (500 people). Professional (3,100 people) and elementary occupations (2,100 people) are forecast to see the biggest increases and growth is also expected in associate professional and technical, caring, leisure and other service, and sales and customer service occupations (1,600 people each). More modest growth is also expected in managers, directors and senior officials (900 people) and process, plant and machine operatives (400 people) across the period.
Forecast Changes in Occupational Demand
Glasgow Region Employment
Change in number of workers (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (people).
Source: Oxford Economics
‘000s
Glasgow

22. Jobs and Skills Changes (3)
The majority of openings in Glasgow over the forecast will require individuals with higher level qualifications, in part a reflection of the sectoral and occupational trends expected over this period. Individuals qualified to SCQF level 7 or above will account for 59% of the 216,500 openings expected to be created between 2016 and The remaining opportunities will mainly be for individuals qualified to SCQF levels 5-6, equivalent to 31% of openings over the forecast period. There will be limited demand for those with qualifications below this level.
Forecast employment change by Qualification ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

23. Jobs and Skills Changes (4)
Replacement demand will result in over 204,200 openings within Glasgow region over the forecast. These openings will occur across all types of occupations including these that are expected to decline in net terms. Expansion demand is expected to result in 11,900 openings between However together with replacement demand, will result in 216,100 openings over this period. Openings will be highest within professional and elementary occupations. Combined these will account for over 40% of openings in the region. They each are expected to experience both expansion and replacement demand over the forecast.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

24. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

25. Glasgow Region: Key Implications (1).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Continuing to increase the quality of jobs. This is a key element of the City Deal Skills Investment Plan which seeks to support businesses to move up the value chain and improve productivity and competitiveness. The Glasgow region has made significant strides in moving to a more knowledge-based economy and there will need to be strong skills supply to sustain this transition.
Within this, there is a need to ensure a good supply of well qualified labour. The region produces a large number of graduates and these must be retained, and others attracted, to ensure the higher level skilled base required. Employers should be encouraged to invest in, and value, higher skilled employees.
Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (1). This includes the important business services sector and financial and professional services.
Glasgow

26. Glasgow region: Key Implications (2).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (2). There are other key sectors and occupations in the regional economy where replacement demand is strong, including retail, a large and important sector, social care/child care and tourism. These require work-based learning routes into, and upwards, within sectors.
By extension, a need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations – and so progression to upper skills levels needs to be engendered and facilitated.
A need to increase the pool of labour. Economic activity levels have risen, however there remain more than 1 in 10 with no qualifications in the region, and deprivation levels have remained at a similar proportion of the Scotland total. Skills shortages are reported by employers, and more need to be helped to take up opportunities where they exist.
Glasgow

27. Glasgow region: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
A need for flexible provision. Non-permanent employment is a feature of the regional economy and more of the future jobs are expected to be part-time. Non traditional employment also means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning a feature of this.
A need to meet the region’s infrastructure needs. This will require adequate construction, engineering and professional skills given anticipated levels of demand arising from City Deal and other investment. Tackling gender imbalances in the sector can be part of meeting these needs.
Glasgow

28. Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram
The Sector Growth diagram allows three pieces of sector information to be displayed, providing a useful overview of the local economy. The diagram includes: Sector size (in terms of employment) – shown through the relative size of the dot representing the sector. Sector concentration relative to the Scottish average – The level of concentration is illustrated on the vertical axis through the Location Quotient. The Location Quotient is a measure of the concentration of industry in an area compared to the national average. It produces an index whereby a score of 1 indicates the industry employment concentration is the same both in the local area and nationally, more than 1 represents a higher concentration and less than 1 a lower concentration. Sector average annual growth rate – The horizontal axis shows the average annual employment growth rate of each sector over the past five year period. The diagram includes four quadrants: Top right quadrant - sectors that have shown employment growth and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom right quadrant – sectors that have shown employment growth but are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Top left quadrant – sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom left quadrant - sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average
Click here to go back to the main presentation: Sector Trends and Specialisms