1. Skills Assessments
Eilean Siar
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for Eilean Siar
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (Further and Higher Education, MAs and Schools), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slidepack provides a summary of the data for the area except for data on Further and Higher Education. The reason for this is provided on slide 15.

8. Local Authority Overview
Limited private sector activity
Low levels of productivity
More rural parts facing lack of employment opportunities
Dependence on primary activities and tourism

9. Business Trends
In 2015 the Eilean Siar business base grew by 9.8%, faster than nationally (7.3%)
+105 businesses, including Business Administration (+25), Manufacturing (+20), Professional, Scientific and Technical (+15)
Over 99% of Eilean Siar businesses are small or micro (<50 employees), slightly above the national average (98%)
No businesses employ 250+ people
Business density rates well above the national average (436 per 10,000 population v 313)
Self employment rate much higher than Scotland (15.5% vs. 10.8%)
The number of Eilean Siar Growth Sector businesses increased by 5% to 620. Higher representation of Growth Sector businesses than at the national level
Much higher share of total employment is in Growth Sectors compared to Scotland (60% v 28%)

10. Population and Projections
Population of 27,070
Less than 1% of Scotland’s total population
Between 2005 and 2015 population grew by only 1% (Scotland 5%)
Growth driven by increase in 65+ age group. Working age population fell in Eilean Siar
Population change
Forecast Population Growth, :
Total population forecast to fall by 11% compared to 9% growth in Scotland
Working age population projected to decline by 28%

11. Workforce Trends
Total employment in Eilean Siar = 11,100 (1% of Scottish total)
Yet to return to pre-recession employment levels
4.7% growth over the last year. Above the Highlands and Islands (3.4%), Scotland (3.2%) and Great Britain (2.7%)
45% work in higher level occupations in Eilean Siar, above Scotland average (42%)
Much lower share of employment in private sector than nationally (Scotland = 77%, Eilean Siar 61%)
32% of the employed population work part time, higher than Scotland average (26%)
9.1% of people in employment are in non-permanent jobs, well above the national average (5.4%)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate in Eilean Siar is 78%, much higher than in Scotland (73%), and 1ppt up from previous year
Almost all (96%) residents work in their local authority area
Those working elsewhere mostly do so outside the Highlands and Islands -notably in Aberdeen City
The unemployment rate in Eilean Siar was below the national average (4% v. 6%), unemployment fell by -1.2ppts which was greater than the national decline (-0.4ppts) over the same period
96% of year olds in Eilean Siar are participating, above the Scotland level (90%)
2% are not participating, less than in Scotland (4%)

13. Qualifications and Earnings
At 42%, a similar proportion of working age adults in Eilean Siar holding SCQF qualifications at levels 7-12 to Scotland (43%), and higher than the UK (37%)
Both workplace and resident earnings are below the Scottish averages

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 5, % of Scotland total
90% school leavers had a positive destination in 2015, compared with 92% nationally
MA uptake increased by 7% from 2014/15 to 490
2% of national total in 2015/16
Construction most popular framework group, 24% uptake
Heavily gender segregated - 98% male
77% achievement rate 2015/16

15. Further and Higher Education
Scotland’s colleges and universities play a major role in developing a skilled workforce. In the Highlands and Islands, the University of the Highlands and Islands (UHI) provides educational opportunities to residents and also attracts students to the region.
Due to the unique and complex tertiary nature of UHI, data for UHI and its associated campuses has not been included in this publication.
The Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and Skills Development Scotland (SDS) are working with UHI to develop the most appropriate way of presenting these complex data sets.

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to decrease by 0.3% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, an equivalent rate of 0.2% growth is expected for Scotland as a whole. Such growth equates to a loss of 300 additional jobs in the region by Construction is the only sector expected to enjoy any growth, with an extra 100 jobs expected over the forecast. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the public, education and wholesale and retail sectors. The number of jobs within public administration and defence is expected to fall by 200 over the forecast, whilst those in manufacturing and wholesale and retail will fall by 100 jobs each.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Eilean Siar Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 2,500 openings within Eilean Siar over the forecast. Expansion demand is expected to contract by 300 openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 2,200 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in elementary and professional occupations, driven replacement demand. The total requirement for workers in skilled trades is also expected to rise over the period, again driven by replacement demand.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. Eilean Siar: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
The strong jobs recovery evident in 2014 fell back again in 2015, with a loss of 300 jobs, or almost 3%. Eilean Siar suffered significant job losses following the global downturn which continued to The number of jobs is now 500 fewer than in 2009.
There have also been sector shifts. Job losses were greatest in retail (-200), but also in agriculture, forestry & fishing (-100) and in the professional, scientific & technical services sector (-100). At the same time there were job increases in accommodation & food services (+100) and in transport & storage (+100), two of the sectors proportionately well represented. Eilean Siar has the highest jobs dependency on the public sector in Scotland. There is under-representation in professional and related services.
The business base continues to grow strongly, increasing faster than the Scotland average. Overall output however has declined, and output per worker remains below the Scotland average, reflecting sector composition. The challenge is to grow the private sector employment base and to grow the higher value added services, capitalising on quality of life benefits and technology improvements.
Glasgow

20. Eilean Siar: Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
Population growth has been very modest over the last 10 years, and is forecast to fall over the period to 2037 at a time of growth for Scotland as a whole. The working age population is expected to fall by 28%. Attracting and retaining young people continues to be a priority.
Eilean Siar has more employed in care and related occupations than the Scotland average, and demand will be strong for these and skilled trade jobs. The forecast 2,600 replacement jobs will also include a significant number in professional occupations, where Eilean Siar already has close to the Scotland average, many linked to public services.
Some 40% go into employment from school, far higher than the national average.
The top MA frameworks by take-up are construction and food & drink. There are very few in health & social care (with sport) and hospitality & tourism, despite the importance of these sectors to Eilean Siar.
Glasgow

21. Eilean Siar: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for the Eilean Siar include:
Increasing the number private sector jobs. Despite the brief jobs recovery there are fewer jobs than There remains a strong reliance on the public sector.
Increasing the quality of and diversity of jobs. This will help broaden and strengthen the employment base, particularly developing the higher value added professional services, linked to quality of life benefits.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills, including investment in young people. The also need an outward focus for new markets.
Meeting the skills needs of employers. There are important local sectors, including skilled trades, health, and tourism. Local skills activity should be encouraged, and focused on employer demand.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest amongst the skilled trades, care and professional occupations. Progression needs engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow