1. Skills Assessments
Dundee City
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for Dundee City
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland (SDS), Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group (SLAED).
Purpose:
Support SFC, regional colleges, strategic bodies and college boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for academic years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of seven workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slide pack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
Scotland's fourth largest city and the employment and education centre of Tayside
Key retail destination
High levels of in-commuting to high paid jobs
Although there remain areas of deprivation
Low proportion of Growth Sector businesses
Reliance on public sector employment, with health, education and public administration, all over-represented in employment terms

9. Business Trends
Business base growth rate in 2015 above the Scottish trend (9.6% v. 7.3%)
280 new businesses including in 2015: Professional and Scientific (55), Construction (35) and Businesses Administration and Support Services (30)
97% of businesses are small or micro (<50 employees)
70 businesses employ in Dundee and 20 employ 250 or more
217 businesses per 10,000 population compared to 313 nationally
9.1% self employment in Dundee, slightly less than the national figure (10.8%)
In 2015, number of Growth Sector businesses (1,210) grew by 6%, a smaller rate than nationally and represented 38% of all businesses
17% of employment in Growth Sectors in 2014 (compared to 28% nationally)
In 2015 Dundee City has an above average number of Growth Sector businesses in Life Sciences and Sustainable Tourism, and below average in Food and Drink
The Growth Sectors are: Food and Drink, Financial and Business Services, Life Sciences, Energy (including Renewables), Sustainable Tourism (Tourism related Industries) and Creative Industries (including Digital)

10. Population and Projections
Population of 148,210 in 2015
2.8% of Scotland’s total population
No change in population locally over , compared to a small rise nationally (0.5%)
Over the past ten years Dundee saw slow population growth (3%, compared to 5% nationally)
Growth in Dundee was primarily within the working age population, as opposed to across Scotland which saw growth in the 65+ age group
Forecast Population Growth, :
Total population is forecast to grow by 16% (+23,000), nearly double the Scottish rate, and working age population will grow by 9% in contrast to a fall nationally

11. Workforce Trends
Total employment in Dundee =75,200 (3% of Scottish total)
2.3% increase over , in line with Tayside (2.5%) but lower than Scotland (3.2%) and Great Britain (2.7%)
In 2015, 33% worked in higher level occupations, below the Scottish average of 42%
70% of the employed population work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally in 2015
25% of employees work part-time, a slight fall since 2014 (27%), and slightly below the national average (26%)
6.6% of people in employment in 2015 are in non-permanent jobs, higher than the national figure (5.4%)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate in Dundee was 63% in 2015, 1ppt higher than the previous year, but well below the national rate (73%)
84% of employed residents work in Dundee
10% work elsewhere in Tayside
6% work outside Tayside
Key areas for out-commuting include Angus (6%), Perth & Kinross (4%) and Fife (3%)
The unemployment rate in Dundee was above the national average (9% v. 6%) in 2015, unemployment fell by -0.7ppts from 2014 which was greater than the national decline (-0.4ppts) over the same period
88% of year olds in Dundee are participating in 2016, and 8% are not, a lower participation rate than Scotland (90%)
Unemployment = ILO measure, i.e. those who are available for and actively seeking work
Unemployment rate: Unemployed as a percentage of the economically active population

13. Qualifications and Earnings
In 2015, a much lower proportion of working age adults in Dundee (37%) held SCQF qualifications at levels 7-12, than in Scotland (43%), though this is in line with the UK (37%)
Qualification level of working age population, 2015:
Workplace earnings in Dundee are in line with the national average (£524 v £527 respectively), while residents earnings (£463) are below the national level

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 7,236, 2.6% of Scotland total
90% school leavers had a positive
destination in 2015, compared with 92% across Scotland
MA uptake decreased by 1%, from 2014/15 to 720
3% of national total in 2015/16
Sport, Health & Social Care most popular MA framework group
20% of uptake
Gender segregated course, 84% female
78% MA achievement rate 2015/16
Fife

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at Dundee & Angus College and Perth College there were 24,315 enrolments
9% of Scotland’s total
88% FE and 12% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Business management, Care and Engineering
Part-time: Special Programmes, Languages & ESOL and Care
73% successful completion of FE courses
There were almost 20,000 students at the two HEIs in the region in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Business & Admin, Subjects Allied to Medicine and Engineering
2014/15 students at HEIs in Tayside
Total university students
University of Dundee
15,605
University of Abertay
4,230
Total
19,835
HE/FE data is available at regional level only. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in Angus, Dundee and Perth and Kinross not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to show no change from 2016 to Across Scotland as a whole 0.2% growth on average each year is expected. Such growth equates to 300 additional jobs in the region by Administrative and support activities and construction are expected to enjoy growth of 400 jobs each over the forecast. The professional, scientific and technical activities sector is forecast to grow (300 jobs). However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the public and manufacturing sectors. The number of jobs within public administration and defence is expected to fall by 600 over the forecast, and those in manufacturing by 500.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Dundee City Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 36,800 openings within Dundee City over the forecast period. Expansion demand is expected to fall by 200 between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 36,600 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in professional occupations, driven by replacement demand. The total requirement for workers in elementary occupations and associate professional and technical occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period, again driven by replacement demand.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. Dundee City: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
The increases in jobs in 2013, which gathered pace in 2014, slipped back in 2015, with the loss of 300 jobs. Dundee City had taken until 2013 to see jobs recovery, and the latest fall in employment means there are 3% fewer jobs than in 2009, some 3,500.
There have been some shifts in sector composition. Job losses were greatest in 2015 in business administration & support (-700), retail (-500), construction (-500) and production (-400). There was a modest contraction in professional, scientific & technical services (-200). These jobs have been largely replaced with accommodation & food services jobs (+1,000), which are typically lower paid and lower value added, and in the public sector services of health (+600) and education (+300).
The business base grew strongly in 2015, and at a rate above the Scotland average, and output has increased. Productivity per worker is close to the Scotland average. Dundee City continues to need new private sector jobs. One third work in the public sector, amongst the highest proportion in Scotland, and this proportion is not diminishing.
Glasgow

20. Dundee City: Key Implications (2).
Skills Demand and Supply
The population has grown modestly over the last 10 years, but growth of twice the national rate is forecast by 2037, an extra 23,000. However, 22% of the City’s data zones are in the most deprived 10%, an increase from 2012, and there is a need to connect more to the local jobs market.
More are employed in elementary occupations than the Scotland average, some 10,000+ and the highest proportion in Scotland. Almost 37,000 openings to are expected through replacement demand, greatest amongst professional and associate professional occupations, and elementary roles. There is a challenge to upskill the workforce, where fewer than average have higher level qualifications.
A higher than average proportion go into Further Education from school, and fewer into jobs.
The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect local economic sectors – health & social care (with sport), hospitality & tourism, construction, retail & customer services. There are very few in other services including ICT professionals.
Glasgow

21. Dundee City: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for Dundee City include:
Increasing the number of private sector jobs. Recent job gains have gone into reverse and the Dundee jobs market is dominated by public services.
Increasing the quality of jobs. Gains in tourism-related employment is welcome, however these are not the higher value added service jobs Dundee City requires.
Connecting more to the labour market. There remain concentrations of relative deprivation and there is a need to develop employability and workforce skills.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills, to simulate jobs growth and workforce development.
Meeting employer skills needs. Important local sectors include manufacturing, health, tourism and arts. Skills activity must continue to focus on employer demand.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations. Progression needs engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non-traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow