1. Argyll and Bute December 2016
Skills Assessments
Argyll and Bute
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for Argyll and Bute
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (Further and Higher Education, MAs and Schools), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slidepack provides a summary of the data for the area except for data on Further and Higher Education. The reason for this is provided on slide 15.

8. Local Authority Overview
Large and diverse area - from remote islands / mainland communities to more populous settlements with commuters to Glasgow
A number of economic / employment centres dispersed throughout the area and whose labour market catchments are constrained by travel times
Extended journey times and quality of some transport links affect business productivity
Retaining population, particularly those of working age, continues to be a significant challenge
Parts of the area (e.g. Bute, Cowal) have economic challenges akin to some parts of west central Scotland

9. Business Trends
Growth of the business base has lagged the national average over the past year ( ) (4.6% v. 7.3%) and the gap continues to widen
+170 businesses including: Accommodation & food service (+45), Business administration & support services (+35)
99% of businesses are small or micro (<50 employees)
Only 5 businesses employ 250+ people (0.1% of total)
Business density is above the national rate (444 per 10,000 population v. 313)
Self employment rate much higher than Scotland (16.2% v. 10.8%)
The number of businesses in Growth Sectors in fell by 1% to 1,935. A higher representation than nationally
33% of Argyll and Bute employment is in Growth Sectors, above the national average (28%)
Growth Sector businesses concentrated in Food and Drink and Sustainable Tourism sectors
Low proportion of businesses in Financial and Business Services and Creative Industries

10. Workforce Trends
Total employment in Argyll and Bute = 38,100 (1% of Scottish total)
Remains below pre-recession levels
1.6% increase over the last year. Lower than in the Highlands and Islands (3.4%), Scotland (3.2%) and GB (2.7%)
41% work in higher level occupations in 2015, slightly below Scotland average (42%)
70% work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally
25% of the employed population work part time, slightly below Scotland average (26%)
6.1% of employees in non-permanent jobs (Scotland 5.4%)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

11. Population and Projections
Population of 86,890 in 2015
2% of Scotland’s total population
Fall in population over the year (-0.9%) whilst growth nationally (0.5%)
Between 2005 and 2015 total population fell by 4%, compared to 5% growth in Scotland
Decline driven by fall in working age population
Population change :
Forecast Population Growth, :
Total population forecast to fall by 13% compared to 9% growth in Scotland
Argyll and Bute working age population projected to fall by 30%

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate in Argyll and Bute in 2015 is 76%; higher than in Scotland (73%), but 1ppt lower than previous year
82% of Argyll and Bute residents work in the local authority area
Just 1% work elsewhere in the Highlands and Islands
17% of residents commute to work outside the Highlands and Islands, mostly to Glasgow and West Dunbartonshire
The unemployment rate in Argyll and Bute was below the national average (5% v. 6%) in 2015, unemployment rose by 0.3ppts whilst unemployment nationally declined (-0.4ppts) over the same period
94% of year olds in Argyll and Bute are participating in 2016, 4ppt above the Scottish rate. Some 3% are not participating (Scotland 4%)

13. Qualifications and Earnings
In 2015, at 39%, a lower proportion of working age adults in Argyll and Bute hold SCQF qualifications at levels 7-12 than in Scotland (43%) but higher than in the UK (37%)
Workplace earnings are above the Scottish average, with residents’ earnings below it
May reflect in-commuters to Argyll and Bute working in higher earning positions

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 4,632, 1.6% of Scotland total
93% school leavers had a positive destination in 2015, compared with 92% nationally
MA uptake increased by 11% from 2014/15 to 335
1% of national total in 2015/16
Hospitality and Tourism most popular MA framework group
20% of uptake
Slightly gender segregated - 65% female
76% MA achievement rate 2015/16

15. Further and Higher Education
Scotland’s colleges and universities play a major role in developing a skilled workforce. In the Highlands and Islands, the University of the Highlands and Islands (UHI) provides educational opportunities to residents and also attracts students to the region.
Due to the unique and complex tertiary nature of UHI, data for UHI and its associated campuses has not been included in this publication.
The Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and Skills Development Scotland (SDS) are working with UHI to develop the most appropriate way of presenting these complex data sets.

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to decrease by 0.1% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, an equivalent rate of 0.2% growth is expected for Scotland as a whole. In line with the overall employment forecast, regional sectoral growth is relatively static with construction and administrative and support activities the only sectors expected to enjoy some modest growth (200 jobs each) over the forecast along with professional, scientific and technical activities (100 jobs). The biggest decreases are expected in public administration and defence (600 jobs) and the wholesale and retail trade sector (300 jobs).
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Argyll & Bute Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 10,100 openings within Argyll & Bute over the forecast. Expansion demand is expected to contract by 600 openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 9,500 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in elementary occupations, driven by replacement demand. The total requirement for workers in professional occupations and skilled trades occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period, largely driven by replacement demand.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. Argyll and Bute: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
After taking longer to experience job losses following the recession, the Argyll and Bute jobs recovery has been weak. Indeed, 2015 saw a fall of 700 jobs after growth in There remain 4% fewer jobs in Argyll and Bute than in 2009, where employment across Scotland increased by 1%.
There were job losses in several sectors in 2015, including production (-300), retail (-300), public administration & defense (-300) and health. There was also contraction in business administration & support (-400), professional, scientific & technical services (-200) and information & communications (-100), sectors that form knowledge-based economies. Accommodation & food services jobs increased (+800), and are twice as concentrated as nationally, although these will typically be lower paid and lower value added.
The business base increased in number in 2015, although still at rates well below the Scotland average, and recent output growth has been good. Productivity levels are close to the Scotland average largely are a result of public sector services on which Argyll and Bute remains reliant and in which 30% are employed. There is a challenges to increase private sector jobs.
Glasgow

20. Argyll and Bute: Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
The population has fallen over the last 10 years, at a time of growth across Scotland, and depopulation is a concern, particularly in the east of the area. It is projected to fall further by 9% to 2037, and the working age by 30%.
More are employed in elementary and skilled trade occupations than the Scotland average, where there is expected to be strong replacement demand. There are expected to be c. 10,000 openings to 2024, with around one third of these at senior, professional and associated professional level. There will be a challenge to meet this demand.
More than one third go into employment from school in Argyll and Bute, higher than the national average, and fewer to Further Education.
The top MA frameworks by take-up in Argyll and Bute largely reflect the local economy – hospitality & tourism, construction, food & drink and health & social care (with sport). There are very few in other services, including ICT.
Glasgow

21. Argyll and Bute: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for Argyll and Bute include:
Increasing the number of private sector jobs – recent job losses in many sectors reflect the weak economic recovery, and continued reliance on the public sector jobs.
Increasing the quality of jobs – Argyll and Bute has a long distance to travel to become a more knowledge-based economy, under-represented in professional and other services.
Retain and attract more people. Depopulation has been an issue; creating more and better jobs will be critical to population growth.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills, including creating more opportunities for young people.
Meeting the skills needs of employers. There are important local sectors, notably tourism, health and food & drink. Increasing supply in the region is important.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations, as well as skilled trades. Progression needs engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Skills provision must be flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow