Ilyin I., Travnikov O., Varygina M. Country-specific case studies: results and recommendations for future research Ilyin I., Travnikov O., Varygina M. EMEP/MSC-E 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Purpose of the presentation is to demonstrate: Objectives and progress of case studies for selected countries Objective: Analysis of factors affecting quality of the assessment of HM pollution levels with fine resolution (5x5km or 10x10km) Active participants: Croatia, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands (as of April 2012) Purpose of the presentation is to demonstrate: Progress achieved in country-specific research Benefits for countries-participants Benefits for EMEP 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Information provided by countries All three countries: - Emission with fine resolution - National monitoring data Additionally, the Czech Republic and Croatia: - National meteorological observations - Concentrations of HMs in soils - Information on LPS - . . . . 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

The Czech Republic, Cd, 5x5 km Country-specific assessment for three countries Deposition to participating countries The Netherlands, Pb, 5x5 km The Czech Republic, Cd, 5x5 km Croatia, Pb, 10x10 km Contributions from external sources 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Progress of pollution assessment for Croatia (Pb, 2007) Deposition of Pb to Croatia in 2007 50 x 50 km 10 x 10 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Annual precipitation, mm Deposition, kg/km2/y Smaller-scale effects derived from modelling with fine (10x10 km) resolution Altitude, a.s.l Annual precipitation, mm Deposition, kg/km2/y The use of finer resolution for country-specific assessment allows to reproduce smaller-scale effects 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Progress of pollution assessment for Croatia (Pb, 2007) Deposition of Pb to Croatia in 2007 50 x 50 km 10 x 10 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Progress of pollution assessment for Croatia (Pb, 2007) Pb emission data, 2007 50 x 50 km 10 x 10 km Croatia: 10x10 km, provided by the country Other EMEP countries: EMEP, 50x50 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Annual precipitation in Croatia, 2007 50 x 50 km 10 x 10 km Refinement of spatial resolution leads to decline of Pb deposition in the south-eastern part of Croatia due to refinement of emissions and changes in annual precipitation fields 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

National vs. transboundary deposition in Croatia Main countries-contributors to deposition of Pb to Croatia, 2007 Contribution of external sources to deposition in Croatia 10 x 10 km 10 x 10 km 50 x 50 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Spatially resolved information for administrative regions Example: Zagreb, Croatia Contribution of national and external sources to Croatia as a whole Total deposition of Pb to Zagreb region, 10x10 km to Zagreb region 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Concluding remarks (Croatia): Finer resolution modelling is highly important for counties with relatively small territory and complex terrain because: Spatial distribution of pollution levels is more detailed Small-scale effects are reproduced better (e.g., orographic precipitation, deposition along state borders) It is possible to assess transboundary pollution for both the entire country and its administrative regions 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Progress of pollution assessment for the Netherlands (Pb, 2007) Pb emission data, 2007 ~ 60% of national Pb emission (Corus steel production) 50 x 50 km 5 x 5 km Netherlands: 5x5 km, provided by the country Other EMEP countries: EMEP, 50x50 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Annual mean air concentrations of Pb, 2007 Modelled vs. observed air concentrations of Pb at stations in the Netherlands and Belgium Annual mean air concentrations of Pb, 2007 50 x 50 km 5 x 5 km Netherlands: 5 stations (3 EMEP stations) Belgium: 1 EMEP station 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Modelled vs. observed air concentrations of Pb at stations in the Netherlands and Belgium Normalized Root Mean Square Error Modelled and observed annual-mean concentrations Transition to modelling with finer spatial resolution improves agreement between modelled and measured levels 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Monthly mean modeled and observed Pb air concentrations at the Dutch stations 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Work on wind re-suspension scheme will continue Contribution of anthropogenic sources and wind re-suspension to modelled Pb (station Vlaardingen) Work on wind re-suspension scheme will continue 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Progress of pollution assessment for the Netherlands (Pb, 2007) Calculated total deposition of Pb 50 x 50 km 5 x 5 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Application of modelling with fine resolution for evaluation of the effects Exceedance = Deposition - Critical Load Exceedance Critical load Deposition flux 50 km X Pattern of critical loads exceedances can change as spatial resolution increases 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Deposition difference (D5km – D50 km) Application of modelling with fine resolution for evaluation of the effects Difference between deposition of Pb to the Netherlands with 5-km and 50-km resolution Fraction of the country’s area with difference between 5-km and 50-km deposition 0 – 0.2 Deposition difference (D5km – D50 km) In ~ 60% of country D5km > D50km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Concluding remarks (the Netherlands): Transition to finer resolution improves agreement between modelled and observed pollution levels Work on HM wind re-suspension will be continued Refinement of deposition levels could change the spatial pattern of critical load exceedances

Additional information for a country derived from country-specific studies (example for the Czech Republic) Maps of concentrations and deposition Deposition from individual regions Source-receptor matrices for regions 5x5 km 5x5 km Pollution levels from individual large point sources Contributions of emission source categories 5x5 km 5x5 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Additional information for the Czech Republic Contribution of source categories to deposition of Cd to regions of the Czech Republic Cd deposition in CZ, 5x5 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Conclusions Emissions with fine spatial resolution improve pollution assessment at national scale. Country-specific studies allow to involve national monitoring networks. It increases reliability of model verification and pollution assessment in a country Transition to finer resolution results to: Improvement of agreement between modelled and observed pollution levels More detailed spatial variability of country’s pollution levels Possible changes of pattern of critical loads exceedances compared to modelling with coarser (50x50 km) resolution Additional country-specific information (pollution budget for regions, pollution from individual sources, etc…) can be produced in close cooperation with national experts 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Conclusions (cont..) Country-specific case studies will be continued in 2013, focusing on the following items: Analysis of wet scavenging processes Further development of wind re-suspension parameterization Continue assessment of pollution levels in the Netherlands Finalization of country-specific activity for Croatia 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Modelled Cd air concentrations in the Czech Republic - priority monitoring stations - other monitoring stations 50x50 km 5x5 km 72 national stations (2 EMEP) 8 priority stations selected for comparison 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Improvement due to finer resolution Comparison of modelled and observed air concentrations of Cd for the Czech Republic 275 Transition to finer resolution leads to better agreement between modelled and measured air concentrations 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Additional country-specific information Detailed country-specific information Additional country-specific information Spatial distribution of pollution levels in country’s administrative regions Source-receptor relationships for individual administrative regions Pollution levels from emission source categories, from individual point sources, etc… This information can be prepared by a country independently using MSCE-HM model and pre-processed meteorological data 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Mean concentrations of Pb at stations in the Netherlands and Belgium Improvement of the model performance due to modification of wind re-suspension parameterization Modelled vs. observed concentrations of Pb in air Statistical indices for 6 stations NRMSE Rel. Bias Original re-suspension 1.21 98% Updated re-suspension 0.39 3% Mean concentrations of Pb at stations in the Netherlands and Belgium - For most of stations modelling results improved due to update of HM wind re-suspension scheme 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Improvement due to updated re-suspension Contribution of wind re-suspension components to pollution levels of Pb in the selected countries (50 x 50 km) - Further analysis / investigation of wind re-suspension components is needed, e.g., from urban, bare lands and sea surfaces 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Detailed country-specific information National vs. transboundary deposition in countries Croatia Netherlands Czech Republic 50 x50 km Finer resolution 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Benefits for EMEP due to refinement of spatial resolution Detailed country-specific information Benefits for EMEP due to refinement of spatial resolution Deposition to a country Deposition from a country Contribution of external sources 50x50 km 10x10 km - Transition to grid with finer resolution allows to reproduce spatial variability of country’s pollution levels in more detail 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Progress of pollution assessment for the Croatia (Pb, 2007) Country-specific information on HMs reported annually (50x50 km): Contribution of external sources Deposition to a country Deposition from a country Can country-specific analysis add more information? 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Monthly mean modeled and observed Pb air concentrations at the Dutch stations 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

National vs. transboundary deposition in Croatia 50 x 50 km 10 x 10 km Main countries-contributors to deposition of Pb to Croatia, 2007 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

Contribution of transboundary deposition to a country Contribution of external sources to deposition in Croatia 10 x 10 km 50 x 50 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta