1. Progress and problems of POP modelling
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Progress and problems of POP modelling
Prof. Victor Shatalov
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-East of EMEP
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

2. Work-plan elements 1. Regional and hemispheric model development
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Work-plan elements
1. Regional and hemispheric model development
2. Evaluation of:
Concentration and deposition fields
Long-term trends
Transboundary transport
3. Model validation
4. Co-operation with countries and organizations
5. Evaluation of new substances
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

3. List of chemicals PAHs PCBs Lindane ( -HCH) HCB PCDD/Fs
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Model development
List of chemicals
PAHs
PCBs
Lindane ( -HCH)
HCB
PCDD/Fs
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

4. POP physical-chemical properties
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Model development
POP physical-chemical properties
PAHs, PCBs, PCDD/Fs: more than 200 compounds each
Selection of priority congeners for modelling.
PCBs
PCDD/Fs
7 congeners
8 congeners
PCB-153
2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF
Group
Selected
Indicator compound
Details in a number of EMEP/MSC-E Technical Notes
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

5. Peculiarities of POP modelling
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Model development
Peculiarities of POP modelling
Persistence in air and sea - long-range
Large accumulation capacities and re-emission ability - multicompartment
Relatively low rates of exchange between air and underlying surface – long-term
Multicompartment long-term modelling on regional and hemispheric/global scales
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

6. Transboundary transport
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Model development
General scheme
Meteorological data
Emissions
POP properties
Model input
MSCE-POP Model
Measurements
Long-term trends
Spatial distribution
Transboundary transport
Model output
New substances
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

7. MSCE-POP multicompartment model
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Model development
MSCE-POP multicompartment model
Spatial coverage:
Spatial resolution:
EMEP region
50x50 km, 150x150 km
Northern Hemisphere
2.5x2.5°, 1x1°
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

8. Concentration levels in media
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Model output
Concentration levels in media
HCB concentrations in media, 1998
Air, ng/m3
Soil, ng/g
Seawater, ng/m3
Characterize maps and their usage
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

9. Long-range transport and hemispheric modelling
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Model output
Long-range transport and hemispheric modelling
Compound
Transported outside EMEP region, % of annual emission
B[a]P 30
PCBs 50
PCDD/Fs 60
g-HCH 75
HCB 80
g-HCH air concentrations for 1990, ng/m3
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

10. PCDD/F emissions and soil concentrations in Germany
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Model output
Long-term trends (1970 – 1998)
About 20-fold emission reduction
Only about 1.5-fold soil concentration reduction
PCDD/F emissions and soil concentrations in Germany
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

11. Media response to emission reduction
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Model output
Media response to emission reduction
PCB contamination of environmental media
Scenario: Emissions = 0
T1/2 = 6.6 yr
Multimedia clearance times (T1/2):
6.6 years
16 years
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

12. Transboundary transport
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Model output
Transboundary transport
Deposition flux, g/km2/y
B[a]P deposition from Poland in 1998
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

13. Comparison with measurements
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Model validation
Comparison with measurements
PCB mean annual air concentrations, ng/m3
About 75%: within a factor of 3
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

14. Co-operation with national experts
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Co-operation with national experts
Interpretation of modelling/ measurement results
Comparison of different modelling approaches
Joint EMEP reports and publications
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

15. Review of MSC-E activities
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Review of MSC-E activities
Reported:
WMO/EMEP Workshop (Moscow, 1996)
AMAP Workshop (Bergen, 1998)
MEPOP Workshop (Hamburg, 1998)
WMO/EMEP/UNEP Workshop (Geneva, 1999)
EUROTRAC-2000 Symposium (Garmish-Partenkirchen, 2000)
OECD/UNEP Workshop (Ottawa, 2001)
Published:
EUROTRAC Newsletter
Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res.
Each year conferences in the framework of different international organizations
Internet:
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

16. Background Document includes short summary on:
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
2002 publications
Background Document includes short summary on:
POP transport and behavior in the environment, EMEP report 4/2002
EMEP Status report
EMEP/MSC-E Technical Notes
PAHs: physical-chemical properties
POP behavior in soil
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

17. Conclusions Progress achieved
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Conclusions
Progress achieved
Profound studies of POP phys.-chem. properties.
Model description of POP behavior in air, soil, seawater, vegetation.
Development of pilot version of POP multicompartment models.
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

18. Conclusions Modelling results for the EMEP region
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Conclusions
Modelling results for the EMEP region
(B[a]P, PCB, PCDD/F, -HCH and HCB):
Distribution between environmental compartments
Spatial distribution of pollution
Long-term trends
Media response for emission reduction for PCBs and PCDD/Fs
Transboundary transport for B[a]P
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

19. Conclusions Model validation: Further activities:
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland
Conclusions
Model validation:
Reasonable agreement with measurements
Uncertainty and sensitivity studies (emissions!)
POP model intercomparison study
Further activities:
Assessment of POP transport on hemispheric scale
Evaluation of new substances
Contributions to effects-based approach
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East