1. EMEP WGSR, 2006 1 EMEP Progress on HMs, 2006  Review and evaluation of the MSCE-HM model (TFMM)  Atmospheric pollution in 2004 (emissions, monitoring and modelling data)  Further development of the model (TFMM, TFEIP)  Conclusions EMEP WGSR, 2006 Heavy Metals (J. Schneider, EMEP SB)

2. EMEP WGSR, 2006 2 Review of MSC-E models (ECE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2006/4) The aim – to establish whether MSC-E models on HMs and POPs are state of the art and fit for the purpose of evaluating long-range transport of HMs and POPs. 48 experts took part in the EMEP Workshop on MSC-E Model Review (Moscow, October, 2005) Main elements of the review  Examination of the models formulation and sensitivity study  Comparison with other models  Evaluation of the model performance against measurements

3. EMEP WGSR, 2006 3 Conclusions Model description and parameterization  The model parameterization are appropriate for operational modelling Model intercomparison  HM depositions, concentrations and transboundary fluxes of HMs calculated by MSC-E model corresponded well with other transport models Model review

4. EMEP WGSR, 2006 4 Comparison with measurements  Other models, such as the MSC-E model underestimated air and precipitation of Pb and Cd when using official emission data. Discrepancies may involve: the emission of source categories in official statistics emission hights re-suspension from soil particle size distribution Subject to these limitations, MSC-E model satisfactorily reflected observed spatial distribution and temporal variations characterized by the observations. Model review

5. EMEP WGSR, 2006 5 Recommendations  Future research: –the inclusion of a shallow lowest layer in vertical structure of model –development of emission algorithms and models for the representation of re-suspension and volatilization from soil –extension of the MSC-E model to Ni, Cu, Cr, As, Zn and Se –extension of the MSC-E model to the global scale –investigation of the potential influence of climate change on fate and behaviour of Hg –dry deposition of mercury to forest, –chemical kinetics of the reaction of atmospheric mercury Model review

6. EMEP WGSR, 2006 6 Model development, 2006 Dust suspension: Saltation Horizontal movement of soil aggregates (40  m – 10 mm) Sandblasting Collisions of soil aggregates resulting in emission of dust particles (0.1 – 20  m) Wind re-suspension of HM Model review

7. EMEP WGSR, 2006 7 Anthropogenic emissions vs.re-suspension, Pb Re-suspensionAnthropogenic emissions (ESPREME) Model review Pb total anthropogenic emissions and resuspension from soil 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Re-suspension Anthoropogenic emissions RU IT FR UA PT DE GE ES TR PL GB RO KZ SE BG BE CZ HR CH HU NL SL BA MC

8. EMEP WGSR, 2006 8 Model review Model results vs. observations Official/TNO emissions 11 kt/y Annual mean Pb concentration in precipitation, 2000 Official/TNO emissions + resuspension 11 + 6.5 kt/y ESPREME emissions + resuspension 13 + 6.5 kt/y Model review A reg = 0.35 R corr = 0.70 A reg = 0.79 R corr = 0.62 A reg = 0.62 R corr = 0.59 A reg – linear regression coefficient; R corr – correlation coefficient Official/TNO emissions < ESPREME ~2 kt

9. EMEP WGSR, 2006 9 Model results vs. observations Annual mean Cd concentration in precipitation, 2000 A reg = 0.26 R corr = 0.76 A reg = 0.71 R corr = 0.53 Official/TNO emissions 280 t/y Official/TNO emissions + resuspension 280 + 65 t/y ESPREME emissions + resuspension 580 + 65 t/y A reg = 0.32 R corr = 0.84 A reg – linear regression coefficient; R corr – correlation coefficient Official/TNO emissions < ESPREME - 300 t

10. EMEP WGSR, 2006 10 13. The Task Force on Measurements and Modelling supported the workshop`s conclusion that the MSC-E Heavy Metal model was suitable for evaluation the long-range transboundary transport and deposition of HMs in Europe, while recognizing the significant difficulties that remained with official emission data and the significant uncertainties with regard to the chemistry and HM deposition. EMEP TF on Measurements and Modelling (ECE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2006/3, Finland, May, 2006) Model review

11. EMEP WGSR, 2006 11 Task Force on Emission Inventories and Projections [ECE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2006/7] III. Draft conclusions of the fifteenth and sixteenth meeting 21.(m) Unofficial datasets might help fill gaps in emission inventories when official data were not available or not considered of sufficient quality. Outcome of the ESPREME workshop on POP and HM emission inventories 6. Three European unofficial emission inventories were presented by ESPREME, TNO and MSC-E, their application in modeling concentrations and deposition in Europe resulted in estimates that were much closer to measured data than estimates based on official submissions.

12. EMEP WGSR, 2006 12 Maximum recalculations of lead emissions for 1990-2003 35 Parties (71%) by 15 June, 2006 Emissions of priority metals -80% up to 2800% -5 times up to 29 times

13. EMEP WGSR, 2006 13 Emissions in individual countries 1990-2004 Latvia Germany PbCd

14. EMEP WGSR, 2006 14 UNCERTAINTIES Variation of total emissions of lead Emission [t/y] Variation [t/y] Austria 12 6 – 26 Finland 27 21 – 33 United Kingdom 162 130 – 210 France 178 53% Denmark 5 278%

15. EMEP WGSR, 2006 15 Exceedance for Pb in 2000 (TNO/Official emissions) and 2020 (TNO emissions, scenario “Full implementation of Protocol”) 20002020 ~42% of European area~33% of European area Exceedances of Pb depositions

16. EMEP WGSR, 2006 16 Exceedances of Hg depositions 20002020 Exceedance for Hg in 2000 (TNO/Official emissions) and 2020 (TNO emissions, scenario “Full implementation of Protocol”) ~77% of European area~80% of European area

17. EMEP WGSR, 2006 17 Exceedances of Cd depositions 20002020 Exceedance for Cd in 2000 (TNO/Official emissions) and 2020 (TNO emissions, scenario “Full implementation of Protocol”) 0.3% of European area0.1% of European area

18. EMEP WGSR, 2006 18 Cooperation with TF on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (June 2006, Moscow) Continent AContinent B Hg intercontinental transport

19. EMEP WGSR, 2006 19 Hg intercontinental transport, 2000 Contribution of non-European sources to Hg depositions in the NH 25-60% of Hg depositions in Europe comes from global sources EMEP region Hg deposition to Germany Hg deposition to the UK

20. EMEP WGSR, 2006 20 Conclusions MSC-E atmospheric model for HM is state of the art Fit to assess long-range transboundary transport and deposition of HMs in Europe Calculated deposition based on officially submitted emission data underpredict the measured concentrations Uncertainties concerning emission data, need to improve emission estimates