1. Trend analysis of contamination in the EMEP region by HMs & POPs
Victor Shatalov, Alexey Gusev, Ilya Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

2. Main topics Approach to trend analysis (reminder)
Comparison of measured and calculated trends
Trends of contamination based on calculation data:
EMEP domain and particular countries
Transboundary transport
Intercontinental transport
Secondary sources to pollution of the EMEP domain
Information for evaluation of effects

3. Input data for trend analysis
Measurement data:
from to (Pb, Cd)
from 1996 to (Hg, B[a]P)
Modelling data:
Pb, Cd, Hg, B[a]P
from 1990 to 2012
1990 …
2012
HMs and POPs
Trend analysis:
Stage 1 analysis of the agreement between of measurement and modelling results
Stage 2 analysis of calculated trends

4. Approach to the trend analysis
Example: Pb air concentrations measured at DE1, 1990 – 2012
Method: poly-exponential approximation with harmonic components; presentation at TFMM Workshop and wiki-page

5. Comparison of measured and modelled trends
Stage 1
Comparison of measured and modelled trends
Comparison of initial time series (Pb)
Correlation 0.64
Rel. bias - 4%
NRMSE 0.59
Comparison of trends
Correlation 0.95
Rel. bias - 5%
NRMSE 0.15

6. Comparison at particular stations
Stage 1
Comparison at particular stations
Statistical parameters of the comparison at EMEP stations (Pb)
Correlation
Bias
NRMSE
Comparison of trends at DE3
Disagreements:
- Reduction rate
- Seasonal variations
Phase shift
Possible reasons of differences:
DE3 is located at height 1200 m (in the model at 550 m)
This station may characterize conditions mostly in free troposphere rather then in boundary layer

7. Comparison of trends at Czech stations (Pb)
Stage 1
Comparison of trends at Czech stations (Pb)
Disagreement is obtained in the first half of the considered period.
Seasonal variations are in a good agreement.
Further analysis with experts in modelling, measurements and emissions is needed

8. Output: general statistics of trend comparison
Stage 1
Output: general statistics of trend comparison
Threshold levels?
Topics for discussion with experts in monitoring, emissions and modelling

9. Main topics Approach to trend analysis (reminder)
Comparison of measured and calculated trends
Trends of contamination based on calculation data:
EMEP domain and particular countries
Transboundary transport
Intercontinental transport
Secondary sources to pollution of the EMEP domain
Evaluation of effects
Aggregated characteristics 9

10. Approach to the trend analysis
Example: B[a]P air concentrations in Germany
ΔCi
Cbeg
Cend
Total reduction per period Rtot = 1–Cend/Cbeg
Relative annual reduction Ri = ΔCi / Ci
Average annual reduction Rav = 1 – (Cend / Cbeg)1/(N-1), where N – number of years
Reduction parameters: Rmin = min (Ri), Rmax = max (Ri), Rav , Rtot
Seasonal variations: average annual amplitude of seasonal component normalized by main component

11. Trends for the entire EMEP domain
Stage 2
Trends for the entire EMEP domain
PCB-153, air concentrations
Average annual reduction rates in countries (air concentrations)
Total reduction 72%
Pb, total deposition
Total reduction 78%

12. Trends for the EMEP sub-regions
Stage 2
Trends for the EMEP sub-regions
Changes of contributions of EMEP anthropogenic sources to the contamination of entire EMEP domain and its sub-regions (1990 – 2012)
Exemplified by B[a]P and HCB
Increase of B[a]P contamination in some EMEP countries (particularly in the EECCA region)

13. Trends for particular EMEP countries
Stage 2
Trends for particular EMEP countries
Trend of B[a]P air concentrations in the EMEP country
Germany
Increase of air concentrations was obtained also at some measurement sites (e.g., for B[a]P at SE12, for Cd at NL9, for Hg at SE14 and fi36, etc).
Increase of air concentrations in the end of the considered period (from the middle of 2005)

14. Output information of the trend analysis for countries
Stage 2
Output information of the trend analysis for countries
Country / region
Total reduction
Mean annual reduction
Maximum annual reduction
Minimum annual reduction/growth
Seasonal variations
Pb total deposition
Austria
84% 8%
11% 5%
43%
Azerbaijan
33%
1.7%
56% …
B[a]P air concentrations
Denmark
1.8% 9%
– 4.5%
100%
Moldova
18%
0.9%
– 1.7%
135%
Negative values mean growth 14

15. Change of transboundary transport of HMs and POPs
Peculiarities of HM and POP transport
Change of transboundary transport of HMs and POPs
1990 – 2012, PCDD/Fs
Reduction of contamination due to national and foreign sources to PCDD/F deposition (contributions of anthropogenic emissions) 15

16. Change of transboundary transport for particular countries
Peculiarities of HM and POP transport
Change of transboundary transport for particular countries
1990 – 2012, PCDD/Fs
Total reduction 96%
Total reduction 69%
Contributions of national and foreign sources to PCDD/F deposition from anthropogenic emissions in two EMEP countries 16

17. Influence of intercontinental transport
Peculiarities of HM and POP transport
Influence of intercontinental transport
Changes of contributions of EMEP and non-EMEP sources to PCB-153 air concentrations in mixing layer over EMEP domain
Non-EMEP sources: 35%
Non-EMEP sources: 30% 17

18. Influence of intercontinental transport
Peculiarities of HM and POP transport
Influence of intercontinental transport
Changes of contributions of EMEP and non-EMEP sources to mercury deposition fluxes
Emission of mercury in 2012
Contribution of non-EMEP sources ~ 7 – 9 g/km2/y
Перемешивание эмиссии от различных континентов 18

19. Contribution of secondary sources to pollution of the EMEP domain
Peculiarities of HM and POP transport
Contribution of secondary sources to pollution of the EMEP domain
Exemplified by PCB-153
Anthropogenic sources are split into:
contemporary – sources of the current year
historical – sources of the preceding period
Contributions of contemporary and historical emissions to PCB-153 air concentrations in Europe (ground layer)
Problems: evaluation of historical emissions from 1930 to present, model description of inter-media exchange, … 19

20. Deposition of Hg to various land use types
Information for effect evaluation
Deposition of Hg to various land use types Hg
Information on trends of deposition to various land use types can be generated for:
All pollutants included into MSC-E modelling activity (Pb, Cd, Hg, PAHs, PCDD/Fs, PCB-153, HCB)
All EMEP countries
All types of underlying surface 20

21. Exceedances of critical loads of HMs
Information for effect evaluation
Exceedances of critical loads of HMs
Exemplified by mercury
Kindly provided by CCE 21

22. Additional information
Information for effect evaluation
Additional information
Air concentrations of B[a]P in the beginning and the end of the considered period
1990
2012
Reduction of concentrations is not spatially homogeneous even within one and the same country 22

23. Additional information
Information for effect evaluation
Additional information
Area-based trend assessment of B[a]P air concentrations in Germany
Population-based trend assessment of B[a]P air concentrations in Germany
Concentration range for 90% of population in 1991
Concentration range for 10% of population in 1991
Concentration range over 90% of country area in 1991
Concentration range over 10% of country area in 1991 23

24. Information for the assessment report
Description of multi-exponential approach to trend analysis
Agreement between trends based on measurements and model assessment:
statistical parameters (correlation coefficient, relative bias, NRMSE);
hot spots (stations with essential disagreement) for further discussion with experts in monitoring, emissions and modelling. 24

25. Information for the assessment report
Trends based on model assessment (1990 – 2012):
trend parameters for the entire EMEP domain;
trend parameters for EMEP countries/sub-regions (incl. EECCA);
changes of transboundary and intercontinental transport;
evaluation of contributions of secondary sources;
additional information for effect evaluation. 25