1. Trend analysis of HMs and POPs on the basis of measurements and modelling data Victor Shatalov and Oleg Travnikov, MSC-E

2. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Approach to the trend analysis Measurements of B[a]P air concentrations at CZ3 Decomposition of time series: (modelling and measurement results) Main trend parameter: total reduction Trend (deleting “random” component) Main component (deleting seasonal component) Time series

3. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Monitoring: data for trend analysis Long-term data on POPs in air and precipitation at EMEP sites (PCBs, HCB and PAHs) Site (code) Zeppelin (NO42) Birkenes (NO02/99) Pallas (FI36) Storhofdi (IS91) Aspvreten (SE12) Råö/Rörvik (SE02/14) Kosetice (CZ03) Westerland (DE01) Zingst (DE09) Region covered by long-term measurement data No data on PCDD/Fs under EMEP

4. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Air concentrations of PCBs: declining trends at almost all sites Monitoring (CCC) Air concentrations of B[a]P: no clear time-trend at any station B[a]P in precipitation: small declining trends at few sites HCB, air: decreasing trend at NO42 in 1990s and increasing trend during the last decade

5. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Total reduction of PCB-153 calculated by trend analysis of measurement and modelling data Comparison of observed and modelled air concentrations at particular locations Better agreement in second part of the period Combined measurement/modelling trend analysis (PCBs)

6. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Modelling data Long-term trends: EMEP domain (B[a]P) Statistically significant increase at 95% confidence level from 2005 to 2012 (7%)

7. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Example: Germany Air concentrations (modelling) Emissions (official data) Long-term trends: countries (B[a]P) Trend analysis of measurements at German sites DE1 0 2 4 6 8 19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012 ng/l Total reduction 56% Growth from 2005 to 2012 29% DE9 0 2 4 6 8 1996 1997 199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012 ng/l Total reduction 57% Growth from 2005 to 2012 22% 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 199019921994199619982000 200220042006200820102012 Air concentrations, ng/m 3 Value Trend Total reduction 68% Growth from 2005 to 2012 22%

8. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Countries with statistically significant increase of B[a]P air concentrations from 2005 to 2012 Increase of emissions (2005-2012) Croatia38% Germany37% Spain32% Finland29% Portugal28% Hungary25% Estonia19% Bulgaria18% Poland14% Italy11% Lithuania10% Slovenia 6% United Kingdom 5% Long-term trends: countries (B[a]P)

9. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Total reduction of POP air concentrations in the EMEP domain from 1990 to 2012 Modelling data Monitoring data Long-term trends: EMEP domain 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% B[a]PPCDD/FsPCB-153HCB B[a]P - no clear trend PCDD/Fs - EMEP: no data; National: decline PCBs - declining trends HCB - increasing trend during the last decade (NO42, AMAP, IADN)

10. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 59 sites 45 sites Long-term measurements of heavy metals (1990-2013) Monitoring of heavy metals within EMEP 8 sites 16 sites Pb in precipitation Pb in air

11. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Selected sites Pb, Cd Hg - in air - in precip. - co-located 0 10 20 30 1992 199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004 20052006200720082009 201020112012 Air concentrations, ng/m 3 Measured and modelled Pb air concentration Zingst (DE9), Germany Historical trends of heavy metal pollution Joint analysis of measurements and modelling (1990-2012) Measurements Modelling

12. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Wet dep. Measurements Modelling -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Measurements Modelling Total reduction, % Air conc. Lead -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Measurements Modelling Measurements Modelling Total reduction, % Air conc.Wet dep. Mercury -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Measurements Modelling Measurements Modelling Total reduction, % Air conc.Wet dep. Cadmium Trends: Joint analysis at monitoring sites Total reduction of heavy metal levels (1990-2012) - Measurements - Modelling 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1992199319941995199619971998 1999 2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012 Air concentrations, ng/m 3 Schmücke (DE 8), Germany Cd air concentration 0 20 40 60 19961997199819992000200120022003 2004 20052006200720082009201020112012 Wet deposition, g/km 2 /y De Zilk (NL91), Netherlands Hg wet deposition

13. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Pb wet deposition (2012) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1990199219941996 1998 2000200220042006200820102012 Mean deposition, g/m 2 /month Mercury 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 19901992199419961998 200020022004200620082010 2012 Mean deposition, g/m 2 /month Cadmium 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012 Mean deposition, kg/m 2 /month Lead Trends: Changes in the whole EMEP domain Long-term trends of Pb, Cd, Hg deposition (1990-2012) Total reduction: 23% Total reduction: 53% Total reduction: 78% PbCdHg Monitoring sites8055-6510-30 Total reduction (%) EMEP domain785323

14. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Trends: Changes in individual countries 0 2 4 6 8 10 199019921994199619982000 200220042006200820102012 Mean deposition, g/km 2 /month France 0 2 4 6 8 10 1990199219941996199820002002 20042006200820102012 Mean deposition, g/km 2 /month Armenia Country mean deposition of Cd (1990-2012) -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 PbCdHg Total redcution, % EU28 EECCA Reduction of heavy metal deposition (1990-2012)

15. Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015 Summary Pollution levels of Pb, Cd and Hg in the EMEP region reduced by 80%, 55% and 25% during 1990-2012 Substantial decrease for the same period was estimated for PCBs and HCB (80-90%), PCDDF (50%), whereas for PAHs it was insignificant (below 30%) Maximum reduction of HMs and POPs pollution took place in early 1990-s, in the second half of the period the reduction slowed or even changed to growth (PAHs and HCB) Decline of HM and POP levels in EECCA countries is generally smaller than that in EU Main factors controlling long-term changes of HM and POP pollution are anthropogenic and secondary emissions and intercontinental transport of long-living species (Hg, HCB, PCBs, PCDDFs) Information on long-term trends of HMs and POPs have been prepared for the CLRTAP Assessment 2016 and discussed at TFMM (Krakow, May 2015) and Expert Group meeting (Moscow, August 2015)