1. EMEP case study on heavy metal pollution assessment:
Current progress and further activities
Ilia Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov, Olga Rozovskaya, Marina Varygina
EMEP/MSC-E
Название уточнить!
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

2. Outline Overview of the case study
Current progress and further activities
Draft work plan
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

3. Annual EMEP information produced for countries
Overview of the case study
Annual EMEP information produced for countries
Cd depos., 2007
Factors affecting quality of the pollution assessment:
Uncertainties of modelling
- spatial resolution
- model parameterizations
- input data
………………
Czech Rep, Cd transboundary transport
Uncertainties of monitoring data
- network density
- data quality
- representativeness of station
…………..
Uncertainties of emission data:
- completeness
- spatial distribution
- temporal variability
- local sources
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

4. EMEP case study on HM pollution assessment under TFMM
Overview of the case study
EMEP case study on HM pollution assessment under TFMM
Main purpose:
An integrated analysis of factors affecting quality of the assessment of heavy metal pollution levels using variety of available information (detailed emissions, monitoring and modelling).
Expected output:
Detailed assessment of pollution levels in individual countries with high resolution (5 x 5 km, 10 x 10 km)
Recommendations to further improvements of pollution assessment components (quality of emissions, model parameterizations, quality and representativeness of monitoring data etc.. )
Participants: EMEP Centres, national experts, WGE
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

5. Atmospheric modelling Improved assessment of pollution levels
Overview of the case study
General scheme of the case study
Emission data
Meteo and geophys.
Monitoring data
Atmospheric modelling
Improvements
Analysis of results;
Recommendations
Improved assessment of pollution levels
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

6. Work packages of the case study
Overview of the case study
Work packages of the case study
WP1. Emission data preparation for modelling and analysis
WP2. Collection and analysis of monitoring data
WP3. Preparation of input geophysical and meteorological data for modelling and modification of the model
WP4. Atmospheric modelling
WP5. Complex analysis of results and improvements of assessment system (modeling, monitoring, emissions)
WP6. Improved model assessment of pollution levels in a country
The content of each Work Package may differ for each participating country
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

7. EMEP/MSC-E HM modeling system
Overview of the case study
EMEP/MSC-E HM modeling system
Czech Rep.
Local model (MSCE-HM)
Coverage – selected countries
Resolution – 10×10 km2
Global model (GLEMOS)
Coverage – global
Resolution – 1°×1°
Regional model (MSCE-HM)
Coverage – EMEP region
Resolution – 50×50 km2
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

8. Current progress of the case study
(since November, 2009)
1. Questionnaires about availability of country-specific data were distributed among EMEP countries
a) Basic data (minimum to start the case study)
b) Additional data (for more detailed assessment)
2. Six countries (Czech Rep, Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Croatia, Slovakia) expressed their wish to take part in the case study and started providing the data
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

9. Current progress of the case study
3. Detailed time table and working programme was developed for the Czech Republic
4. Bi-lateral meeting between the Czech Republic and MSC-E took place in Moscow
5. Preliminary model calculations were done for the Czech Republic
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

10. Moscow meeting of Czech Republic and MSC-E
(14-16 April, 2010)
Purpose: to discuss the input data, expected results, time table, etc... focusing on the country-specific data on emissions, measurements, land-cover, meteorological data, critical loads, concentrations in soils.
Results
Available monitoring data were presented by CZ and analysed
Emission data from CZ are expected in the June
Work plan for 2010 was developed
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

11. Moscow meeting of Czech Republic and MSC-E
(14-16 April, 2010)
Results (cont…)
Deliverables from MSC-E were agreed
List of experts from the CZ in the field of emissions, land-cover, critical loads, meteorology, was submitted
Procedure of joint analysis of case study results was discussed
Next meeting - Autumn, 2010
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

12. Metals of interest Czech Republic Cd, Hg, As Netherlands Pb, Cd, Hg
Croatia
Italy
Pb, Cd, Hg, As
Spain
Slovakia
Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Ni, Zn, Cr, Cu
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

13. + WP1: Emission data preparation for modelling and analysis -
Purpose: to analyze the effect of finer resolution on modeling results; to provide a country with more detailed assessment
Purpose: to assess contributions of different emission source categories on pollution levels
Type of emission data CZ NL HR ES IT SK
Gridded, 50x50 km +
Gridded, finer resolution (5-10 km) -
Source category data
Large point source data ?
Detailed temporal resolution
Future emission scenarios
Purpose: to evaluate contribution of LPS to overall pollution levels
Purpose: to evaluate the effect of short-term temporal changes of emissions on the model performance
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

14. Emission in Croatia, Pb, 2007 Total: 11 tonnes WP1: Emissions
Total emissions, 10 x 10 km2
Contributions of source categories
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

15. WP2. Collection and analysis of monitoring data
Purpose: to increase monitoring set for the analysis
Type of monitoring data CZ NL HR ES IT SK
EMEP data + -
Data from national networks
planned
Station's location characteristics
(partly) ?
Meteo. data at stations
(precip)
Supplementary measurement data
Field campaigns
Purpose: to check the represenativeness of station
Purpose: Wind data - to trace the influence of local sources. Precip. data - for evaluation of wet deposition fluxes
- Dry deposition measurements
- Measurements at different heights
- Filling gaps in measurement network
Concentrations in mosses; throughfall
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

16. Measurements of Cd wet deposition in the Czech Republic in 2007
WP2. Monitoring data
Measurement data provided by participating countries
National network: ~30 stations
EMEP: 2 stations
Measurements of Cd wet deposition in the Czech Republic in 2007
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

17. WP3. Input geophysical and meteorological data for modelling
Purpose: to evaluate wind re-suspension flux of HMs
Type geophys. data CZ NL HR ES IT SK
Land-cover information + ? -
Concentrations of HMs in topsoils and re-suspension of dust
Critical loads
Meteorological obs. data
Purpose: to calculate exceedances of critical loads with help of WGE
Purpose: verification of meteorological data generated by MSC-E;
assimilation of national observations
What other country-specific data can be relevant?
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

18. Land cover data for the case study
WP3. Geophys. and meteo. data
Land cover data for the case study
Czech Republic
Crops, 50x50 km
Crops, 10x10 km
Source: MODIS, 30``x 30`` (~ 1x1 km), 17 categories
National land-cover data are of high importance
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

19. Concentrations of HMs in soils
WP3. Geophys. and meteo. data
Concentrations of HMs in soils
Source: Europe-wide data of project FOREGS project ( ) ,
Concentrations of Cd in soils in Czech Republic
Original data
Interpolation (10 x 10 km)
Country-specific concentrations in soil are of high importance
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

20. Meteorological data with fine resolution
WP3. Geophys. and meteo. data
Meteorological data with fine resolution
Prepared for Czech Republic and Croatia
Preprocessor: MM5
Annual mean air temperature (Czech Republic, 2007)
50 x 50 km
10 x 10 km
5 x 5 km
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

21. Comparison of modelled and observed precipitation amounts (CZ, 2007)
Absolute bias (Pmod - Pobs)
50 x 50 km
10 x 10 km
5 x 5 km
Performance for the Czech Republic:
50 x 50 km
10 x 10 km
5 x 5 km
Rel. bias, % 13 -9 1
Abs. bias, mm 87
-65 7
Rcorr 61 80 89
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

22. WP4. Atmospheric modeling
Expected set of modelling exercises:
Basic set of calculations
Modelling over a country with current (50 x 50 km) and fine spatial resolution (e.g., 10 x 10 km)
Source-receptor modelling for a country. Sources: neighbouring countries and admin. regions. Receptors: admin. regions and grid cells with stations.
Contribution from the global sources estimated by GLEMOS model (for Hg)
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

23. WP4. Atmospheric modeling
Expected set of modelling exercises:
Additional calculations
Pollution from different source categories
Modelling with different temporal resolution of emissions
Modelling with detailed vertical distribution of emissions
Pollution levels from individual LPS
Pollution levels from cities
National models
Future emission scenarios
……………….
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

24. Preliminary modelling results
WP4. Atmospheric modeling
Preliminary modelling results
Air concentrations of Cd in Czech Republic in 2007
(based on EMEP emissions re-gridded to 10 x 10 km grid)
50x50 km
10x10 km
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

25. Total deposition of Cd in Czech Republic in 2007
WP4. Atmospheric modeling
Total deposition of Cd in Czech Republic in 2007
50 x 50 km
10 x 10 km
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

26. WP5. Complex analysis of results
1. Comparison of modelled and measured levels and identification of discrepancies
2. Analysis of monitoring data
3. Analysis of discrepancies using back trajectories for selected grid cells and source-receptor results
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

27. WP5. Analysis of results
3. Analysis of discrepancies using back trajectories for selected grid cells and source-receptor results
February, 25, 12 h
February, 25, 18 h
February, 25, 00 h
February, 25, 06 h
CZ3
Emission, g/km2/d
Traj. height, m
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

28. WP5. Complex analysis of results
1. Comparison of modelled and measured levels and identification of discrepancies
2. Analysis of monitoring data
3. Analysis of discrepancies using back trajectories for selected grid cells and source-receptor results
4. Model parameterizations (vertical mixing, dry deposition, wet scavenging, ….)
5. Influence of different emission parameters (spatial resolution, temporal variability etc)
6. Comparison with the results of national models
7. Improvements of the pollution assessment system (model, emissions, monitoring )
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

29. WP6. Improved model assessment of pollution levels in a country
Pb deposition; reference year
50 x 50 km
Calculated concentrations and deposition with high (10x10 km) spatial resolution
Germany
Residential combustion
Contributions of administrative regions, cities and neighbouring countries to pollution levels
CL exceedance (Pb, 2000)
Pb deposition; scenario 1
Global scale (1º×1º)
Selected area
Pollution levels from Nickel smelter
Contributions of global sources to country’s pollution levels (for Hg)
Transport
10 x 10 km
Contributions of source categories to pollution levels
Pb deposition; scenario 2
Contributions of large point sources (incl. big cities) to pollution levels
Critical loads exceedances maps
Simulations based on national future emission scenarios
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

30. Draft time table: - CZ; - HR, IT, NL, ES, SK
2010
2011
2012 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2
Collection of input data from countries
Transformation of data for input to the model
Preparation of meteorological data
Modification of the model
Modelling
Analysis of the modelling results
Improvements of input data and the model
New set of calculations, processing and analysis
Report on the results of the case study
Meetings
Mar-Aug
Aug – Oct
Aug – Oct
Sep – Oct
Sep – Jan
Oct – Mar
Dec – Sep
Feb – Nov
Apr – Jun
EMEP/MSC-E
TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010

31. Meetings and reporting about the progress
Bi-lateral meeting between MSC-E and Czech Republic (Moscow, April )
TFMM, Larnaca, 2010
Next bi-lateral meeting between MSC-E and Czech Republic: Autumn, 2010
Next reporting about the progress: SB meeting, September, 2010