1. ENEA, National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable
Changes in HM concentrations from 2005 to 2010 in Italy: Preliminary analysis of observations and model results
Mihaela Mircea, Mario Adani, Andrea Cappelletti, Gino Briganti, Massimo D’Isidoro, Antonio Piersanti, Lina Vitali, Luisella Ciancarella, Gabriele Zanini
ENEA, National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable
Economic Development, via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, 40129, Bologna, Italy
16th Task Force on Measurement and Modelling Meeting
5 - 8 May 2015 in Krakow, Poland

2. Outline Annual changes between 2010 and 2005 for As, Ni, Cd and Pb.
Description of AMS-MINNI modelling system and of simulations setup
Spatial distribution of concentrations
Changes in spatial distribution of emissions and concentrations
Model changes versus measurement changes
Summary of results

3. Space, time, species info
AMS-MINNI
Air Quality
Emissions
Meteorology
RAMS
Local data
ECMWF fields
Reference meteo year
Ref. inventory
Space, time, species info
Emission Manager
Emission scenario
Conc & dep. fields
EMEP B.C.
FARM
FARM main features:
Emission of pollutants from area and point sources, with plume rise calculation and mass assignment to vertical grid cells
3D dispersion by advection and turbulent diffusion
Flexible gas-phase mechanism (SAPRC-99, POPs-Hg) through KPP (Kinetic Pre-Processor: Damian et al., 2002).
Treatment of PM10 and PM2.5 (aero3 modal aerosol module)
Dry removal of pollutants dependent on local meteorology and land-use
Removal through precipitation scavenging processes

4. Simulations Setup 2005& 2010: 20 km grid resolution
Meteorology had been produced with the RAMS model using initial and boundary conditions
from ECMWF analyses
Initial/Boundary condition: EMEP W/MSC-E output at 6 hour time resolution for HM and POPs,
EMEP/MSC-W output at 3 hour time resolution for the other gas and aerosol species ;
both EMEP models had a spatial horizontal resolution of 50 km;
Emission inventories: national territory ISPRA 2009 for 2005 and ISPRA Informative Inventory Report 2013 for 2010, EMEP inventory for foreign countries
Natural HM emissions associated to soil dust and sea-salt aerosols have been included in the simulations following the methodology used by Travnikov and Ilyin (2007).
2010: 4 km grid resolution
Meteorology and air quality were simulated with initial/boundary condition from 20 km grid resolution run
Emissions ere the same as for 20 km grid resolution run, but spatialized with more detailed proxies.

5. Emissions changes between 2010 and 2005: tonnes/year
S01 Combustion in energy and transformation industries
S02 Non-industrial combustion plants
S03 Combustion in manufacturing industry
S04 Production processes
S05 Extraction and distribution of fossil
fuels and geothermal energy
S06 Solvent and other product use
S07 Road transport
S08 Other mobile sources and machinery
S09 Waste treatment and disposal
S10 Agriculture
S11 Other sources and sinks

6. As: EMEP vs MINNI EMEP 50x50km MINNI 20x20km MINNI 4x4km 2005 2010
Target Value: 6 ng/m3

7. Ni: EMEP vs MINNI EMEP 50x50km MINNI 20x20km MINNI 4x4km 2005 2010
Target Value: 20 ng/m3

8. Cd: EMEP vs MINNI EMEP 50x50km MINNI 20x20km MINNI 4x4km 2005 2010
Target Value: 5 ng/m3

9. Pb: EMEP vs MINNI EMEP 50x50km MINNI 20x20km MINNI 4x4km 2005 2010
Target Value: 500 ng/m3

10. As: Emissions changes between 2010 and 2005
point emissions
other emissions
anthropogenic emissions
no point emissions

11. As: Emissions vs Concentrations differences between 2010 and 2005

12. Ni: Emissions vs Concentrations differences between 2010 and 2005
point emissions
other emissions
anthropogenic emissions
no point emissions

13. Ni: Emissions vs Concentrations differences between 2010 and 2005

14. Cd: Emissions vs Concentrations differences between 2010 and 2005
point emissions
other emissions
anthropogenic emissions
no point emissions

15. Cd: Emissions vs Concentrations differences between 2010 and 2005

16. Pb: Emissions vs Concentrations differences between 2010 and 2005
point emissions
other emissions
anthropogenic emissions
no point emissions

17. Pb: Emissions vs Concentrations differences between 2010 and 2005

18. Available measurements
2010
2005

19. Observed and simulated concentrations changes for As: (2010-2005)/2005

20. Observed and simulated concentrations changes for Ni: (2010-2005)/2005

21. Observed and simulated concentrations changes for Cd: (2010-2005)/2005

22. Observed and simulated concentrations changes for Pb: (2010-2005)/2005

23. Summary of results
generally, the most significant changes in concentrations are explained by the changes in anthropogenic emissions
Ni concentrations decreased below 3 ng/m3 in 2010
in spite of an overall increasing of As emissions (S03) and Pb emissions (S02, S07, S08) in 2010 with respect to 2005, their concentrations in the Po Valley had decreased
Cd and Pb concentrations had increase around Torino and Brescia in correspondance of an increase in anthropogenic emissions
significativ increase of concentrations close to the boundaries is observed caused by BCs from EMEP/MSC-E model and foreign emissions inventories
simulations reproduce well the observed changes at most of the stations; the increase of grid resolution does not improve always the agreement with measurements due to complex interactions between orography, meteorology and emissions