1. 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris
Application of monitoring-modelling approach for the analysis of the emission data
Ilia Ilyin, EMEP/MSC-E
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

2. Available EMEP emissions data
Completeness of reported HMs emission totals for
Complete datasets of emission totals are available for 25 countries
There is no national emissions data for 14 EMEP countries
Incomplete information for 11 EMEP countries
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

3. Available EMEP emissions data
Coverage of EMEP region with emission data for Pb (2007)
Gridded data – 29 countries
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

4. Expert emission estimates
Heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Hg)
TNO estimates for Europe for 2000, 2010 and (Denier van der Gon et al., 2005)
ESPREME project estimates for Europe for 2000, 2010
UNEP/AMAP global Hg emissions (2005)
Contemporary expert emission estimates are highly needed!
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

5. Modelling of pollution levels
Pb emission
Pb total deposition
Pb air concentrations
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

6. 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris
Model evaluation (Pb, 2006)
Annual mean Pb concentration in air
Annual mean Pb concentration in precipitation
Mod = 0.68 Obs
Corr = 0.69
Mod = 0.83 Obs
Corr = 0.72
CZ3
FI17
FI93
FI92
FI36
FI22 Pb
NO55 Pb
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

7. Model evaluation: example for Finnish sites
Monthly mean Pb concentration in precipitation (2006)
FI93 (Kotinen, Finland)
August, 2006
June, 2006
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

8. Model evaluation: testing effects of changes in emission data
Pb emissions (2006)
Numerical experiment:
Run 1: Official emission data
Run 2: ESPREME estimates for Russian Federation
Run 3: ESPREME estimates for Russian Federation, 3-fold increase of emissions in St. Petersburg area
Run 1
Run 2
Run 3
См. тест «new Russia-4»
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

9. 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris
Emissions in 2006 and 2007
Pb, 2006
Pb, 2007
Total emission over European part of Russia
2006
355 t / y (official data)
2007
2400 t / y (CEIP estimates)
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

10. 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris
Updated information on emissions and measurements for 2007
Pb, 2007
Station FI17
(Virolahti II)
Concentrations in air and in precip.
High (daily) temporal resolution for conc. in air
Relatively close to Russian emission sources
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

11. 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris
Comparison of concentrations in air at FI17 (Pb, 2007) v
Episode 1 v
Episode 2
Based on new (2007) data for Russian Federation
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

12. Application of back trajectories
72 hrs back trajectories and emissions of lead
Episode 1: 08 August 2007
FI17
St. Petersburg
August, 08, 18 h
FI17
St. Petersburg
August, 08, 12 h
FI17
St. Petersburg
August, 08, 00 h
FI17
St. Petersburg
August, 08, 06 h
Emission, g/km2/y
Traj. Height, m
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

13. Application of back trajectories
72 hrs back trajectories and emissions of lead
Episode 1: 10 August 2007
FI17
St. Petersburg
August, 10, 00 h
FI17
St. Petersburg
August, 10, 18 h
FI17
St. Petersburg
August, 10, 06 h
FI17
St. Petersburg
August, 10, 12 h
Emission, g/km2/y
Traj. Height, m
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

14. Application of back trajectories
72 hrs back trajectories and emissions of lead
Episode 1: 13 August 2007
FI17
St. Petersburg
August, 13, 00 h
FI17
St. Petersburg
August, 13, 18 h
FI17
St. Petersburg
August, 13, 06 h
FI17
St. Petersburg
August, 13, 12 h
Emission, g/km2/y
Traj. Height, m
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

15. Application of back trajectories
72 hrs back trajectories and emissions of lead
Episode 2: 17 September 2007
FI17
St. Petersburg
September, 17, 00 h
FI17
St. Petersburg
September, 17, 18 h
FI17
St. Petersburg
September, 17, 06 h
FI17
St. Petersburg
September, 17, 12 h
Emission, g/km2/y
Traj. Height, m
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

16. Application of back trajectories
72 hrs back trajectories and emissions of lead
Episode 2: 21 September 2007
FI17
September
21, 00 h
FI17
September
21, 18 h
FI17
September
21, 06 h
FI17
September
21, 12 h
Emission, g/km2/y
Traj. Height, m
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

17. 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris
Potential regions-sources of Pb at FI17 v
RU, EE, LV, LT, DE, PL, UA…
EE, LV, LT, PL
SE, DE, DK… RU
DK, SE, EE, RU, PL
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

18. 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris
Concentrations in air at FI17 (Pb, 2007): “new” vs. “old” emission data for Russia v
Episode 1 v
Episode 2
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

19. 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris
Conclusions
Monitoring-modelling approach (including analysis of back trajectories) can be useful tool for identification of regions where quality of emission data deserve special attention
Measurements with high temporal resolution favours more detailed analysis of discrepancies between model and measurements
Gaps in HM emission data are filled with information based on expert estimates. However, existing expert estimates are becoming outdated and more contemporary emission expert estimates are needed
Case study focused on the complex analysis of heavy metal pollution levels in a country with participation of national experts, modellers, experts in emissions and monitoring is proposed to be organized under EMEP/TFMM
EMEP/MSC-E
10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris