Trend analysis of contamination in the EMEP region by HMs & POPs Victor Shatalov, Alexey Gusev, Ilya Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

Main topics Approach to trend analysis (reminder) Comparison of measured and calculated trends Trends of contamination based on calculation data: EMEP domain and particular countries Transboundary transport Intercontinental transport Secondary sources to pollution of the EMEP domain Information for evaluation of effects

Input data for trend analysis Measurement data: from 1990-1992 to 2008-2010 (Pb, Cd) from 1996 to 2008-2010 (Hg, B[a]P) Modelling data: Pb, Cd, Hg, B[a]P from 1990 to 2012 1990 … 2012 HMs and POPs Trend analysis: Stage 1 analysis of the agreement between of measurement and modelling results Stage 2 analysis of calculated trends

Approach to the trend analysis Example: Pb air concentrations measured at DE1, 1990 – 2012 Method: poly-exponential approximation with harmonic components; presentation at TFMM Workshop and wiki-page

Comparison of measured and modelled trends Stage 1 Comparison of measured and modelled trends Comparison of initial time series (Pb) Correlation 0.64 Rel. bias - 4% NRMSE 0.59 Comparison of trends Correlation 0.95 Rel. bias - 5% NRMSE 0.15

Comparison at particular stations Stage 1 Comparison at particular stations Statistical parameters of the comparison at EMEP stations (Pb) Correlation Bias NRMSE Comparison of trends at DE3 Disagreements: - Reduction rate - Seasonal variations Phase shift Possible reasons of differences: DE3 is located at height 1200 m (in the model at 550 m) This station may characterize conditions mostly in free troposphere rather then in boundary layer

Comparison of trends at Czech stations (Pb) Stage 1 Comparison of trends at Czech stations (Pb) Disagreement is obtained in the first half of the considered period. Seasonal variations are in a good agreement. Further analysis with experts in modelling, measurements and emissions is needed

Output: general statistics of trend comparison Stage 1 Output: general statistics of trend comparison Threshold levels? Topics for discussion with experts in monitoring, emissions and modelling

Main topics Approach to trend analysis (reminder) Comparison of measured and calculated trends Trends of contamination based on calculation data: EMEP domain and particular countries Transboundary transport Intercontinental transport Secondary sources to pollution of the EMEP domain Evaluation of effects Aggregated characteristics 9

Approach to the trend analysis Example: B[a]P air concentrations in Germany ΔCi Cbeg Cend Total reduction per period Rtot = 1–Cend/Cbeg Relative annual reduction Ri = ΔCi / Ci Average annual reduction Rav = 1 – (Cend / Cbeg)1/(N-1), where N – number of years Reduction parameters: Rmin = min (Ri), Rmax = max (Ri), Rav , Rtot Seasonal variations: average annual amplitude of seasonal component normalized by main component

Trends for the entire EMEP domain Stage 2 Trends for the entire EMEP domain PCB-153, air concentrations Average annual reduction rates in countries (air concentrations) Total reduction 72% Pb, total deposition Total reduction 78%

Trends for the EMEP sub-regions Stage 2 Trends for the EMEP sub-regions Changes of contributions of EMEP anthropogenic sources to the contamination of entire EMEP domain and its sub-regions (1990 – 2012) Exemplified by B[a]P and HCB Increase of B[a]P contamination in some EMEP countries (particularly in the EECCA region)

Trends for particular EMEP countries Stage 2 Trends for particular EMEP countries Trend of B[a]P air concentrations in the EMEP country Germany Increase of air concentrations was obtained also at some measurement sites (e.g., for B[a]P at SE12, for Cd at NL9, for Hg at SE14 and fi36, etc). Increase of air concentrations in the end of the considered period (from the middle of 2005)

Output information of the trend analysis for countries Stage 2 Output information of the trend analysis for countries Country / region Total reduction Mean annual reduction Maximum annual reduction Minimum annual reduction/growth Seasonal variations Pb total deposition Austria 84% 8% 11% 5% 43% Azerbaijan 33% 1.7% 56% … B[a]P air concentrations Denmark 1.8% 9% – 4.5% 100% Moldova 18% 0.9% – 1.7% 135% Negative values mean growth 14

Change of transboundary transport of HMs and POPs Peculiarities of HM and POP transport Change of transboundary transport of HMs and POPs 1990 – 2012, PCDD/Fs Reduction of contamination due to national and foreign sources to PCDD/F deposition (contributions of anthropogenic emissions) 15

Change of transboundary transport for particular countries Peculiarities of HM and POP transport Change of transboundary transport for particular countries 1990 – 2012, PCDD/Fs Total reduction 96% Total reduction 69% Contributions of national and foreign sources to PCDD/F deposition from anthropogenic emissions in two EMEP countries 16

Influence of intercontinental transport Peculiarities of HM and POP transport Influence of intercontinental transport Changes of contributions of EMEP and non-EMEP sources to PCB-153 air concentrations in mixing layer over EMEP domain Non-EMEP sources: 35% Non-EMEP sources: 30% 17

Influence of intercontinental transport Peculiarities of HM and POP transport Influence of intercontinental transport Changes of contributions of EMEP and non-EMEP sources to mercury deposition fluxes Emission of mercury in 2012 Contribution of non-EMEP sources ~ 7 – 9 g/km2/y Перемешивание эмиссии от различных континентов 18

Contribution of secondary sources to pollution of the EMEP domain Peculiarities of HM and POP transport Contribution of secondary sources to pollution of the EMEP domain Exemplified by PCB-153 Anthropogenic sources are split into: contemporary – sources of the current year historical – sources of the preceding period Contributions of contemporary and historical emissions to PCB-153 air concentrations in Europe (ground layer) Problems: evaluation of historical emissions from 1930 to present, model description of inter-media exchange, … 19

Deposition of Hg to various land use types Information for effect evaluation Deposition of Hg to various land use types Hg Information on trends of deposition to various land use types can be generated for: All pollutants included into MSC-E modelling activity (Pb, Cd, Hg, PAHs, PCDD/Fs, PCB-153, HCB) All EMEP countries All types of underlying surface 20

Exceedances of critical loads of HMs Information for effect evaluation Exceedances of critical loads of HMs Exemplified by mercury Kindly provided by CCE 21

Additional information Information for effect evaluation Additional information Air concentrations of B[a]P in the beginning and the end of the considered period 1990 2012 Reduction of concentrations is not spatially homogeneous even within one and the same country 22

Additional information Information for effect evaluation Additional information Area-based trend assessment of B[a]P air concentrations in Germany Population-based trend assessment of B[a]P air concentrations in Germany Concentration range for 90% of population in 1991 Concentration range for 10% of population in 1991 Concentration range over 90% of country area in 1991 Concentration range over 10% of country area in 1991 23

Information for the assessment report Description of multi-exponential approach to trend analysis Agreement between trends based on measurements and model assessment: statistical parameters (correlation coefficient, relative bias, NRMSE); hot spots (stations with essential disagreement) for further discussion with experts in monitoring, emissions and modelling. 24

Information for the assessment report Trends based on model assessment (1990 – 2012): trend parameters for the entire EMEP domain; trend parameters for EMEP countries/sub-regions (incl. EECCA); changes of transboundary and intercontinental transport; evaluation of contributions of secondary sources; additional information for effect evaluation. 25