1. Ilyin I., Travnikov O., Varygina M.
Country-specific case studies: results and recommendations for future research
Ilyin I., Travnikov O., Varygina M.
EMEP/MSC-E
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

2. Purpose of the presentation is to demonstrate:
Objectives and progress of case studies for selected countries
Objective: Analysis of factors affecting quality of the assessment of HM pollution levels with fine resolution (5x5km or 10x10km)
Active participants: Croatia, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands (as of April 2012)
Purpose of the presentation is to demonstrate:
Progress achieved in country-specific research
Benefits for countries-participants
Benefits for EMEP
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

3. Information provided by countries
All three countries:
- Emission with fine resolution
- National monitoring data
Additionally, the Czech Republic and Croatia:
- National meteorological observations
- Concentrations of HMs in soils
- Information on LPS
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

4. The Czech Republic, Cd, 5x5 km
Country-specific assessment for three countries
Deposition to participating countries
The Netherlands, Pb, 5x5 km
The Czech Republic, Cd, 5x5 km
Croatia, Pb, 10x10 km
Contributions from external sources
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

5. Progress of pollution assessment for Croatia (Pb, 2007)
Deposition of Pb to Croatia in 2007
50 x 50 km
10 x 10 km
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

6. Annual precipitation, mm Deposition, kg/km2/y
Smaller-scale effects derived from modelling with fine (10x10 km) resolution
Altitude, a.s.l
Annual precipitation, mm
Deposition, kg/km2/y
The use of finer resolution for country-specific assessment allows to reproduce smaller-scale effects
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

7. Progress of pollution assessment for Croatia (Pb, 2007)
Deposition of Pb to Croatia in 2007
50 x 50 km
10 x 10 km
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

8. Progress of pollution assessment for Croatia (Pb, 2007)
Pb emission data, 2007
50 x 50 km
10 x 10 km
Croatia: 10x10 km, provided by the country
Other EMEP countries: EMEP, 50x50 km
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

9. Annual precipitation in Croatia, 2007
50 x 50 km
10 x 10 km
Refinement of spatial resolution leads to decline of Pb deposition in the south-eastern part of Croatia due to refinement of emissions and changes in annual precipitation fields
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

10. National vs. transboundary deposition in Croatia
Main countries-contributors to deposition of Pb to Croatia, 2007
Contribution of external sources to deposition in Croatia
10 x 10 km
10 x 10 km
50 x 50 km
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

11. Spatially resolved information for administrative regions
Example: Zagreb, Croatia
Contribution of national and external sources
to Croatia as a whole
Total deposition of Pb to Zagreb region, 10x10 km
to Zagreb region
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

12. Concluding remarks (Croatia):
Finer resolution modelling is highly important for counties with relatively small territory and complex terrain because:
Spatial distribution of pollution levels is more detailed
Small-scale effects are reproduced better (e.g., orographic precipitation, deposition along state borders)
It is possible to assess transboundary pollution for both the entire country and its administrative regions
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

13. Progress of pollution assessment for the Netherlands (Pb, 2007)
Pb emission data, 2007
~ 60% of national Pb emission
(Corus steel production)
50 x 50 km
5 x 5 km
Netherlands: 5x5 km, provided by the country
Other EMEP countries: EMEP, 50x50 km
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

14. Annual mean air concentrations of Pb, 2007
Modelled vs. observed air concentrations of Pb at stations in the Netherlands and Belgium
Annual mean air concentrations of Pb, 2007
50 x 50 km
5 x 5 km
Netherlands: 5 stations (3 EMEP stations)
Belgium: 1 EMEP station
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

15. Modelled vs. observed air concentrations of Pb at stations in the Netherlands and Belgium
Normalized Root Mean Square Error
Modelled and observed annual-mean concentrations
Transition to modelling with finer spatial resolution improves agreement between modelled and measured levels
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

16. Monthly mean modeled and observed Pb air concentrations at the Dutch stations
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

17. Work on wind re-suspension scheme will continue
Contribution of anthropogenic sources and wind re-suspension to modelled Pb (station Vlaardingen)
Work on wind re-suspension scheme will continue
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

18. Progress of pollution assessment for the Netherlands (Pb, 2007)
Calculated total deposition of Pb
50 x 50 km
5 x 5 km
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

19. Application of modelling with fine resolution for evaluation of the effects
Exceedance = Deposition - Critical Load
Exceedance
Critical load
Deposition flux
50 km X
Pattern of critical loads exceedances can change as spatial resolution increases
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

20. Deposition difference (D5km – D50 km)
Application of modelling with fine resolution for evaluation of the effects
Difference between deposition of Pb to the Netherlands with 5-km and 50-km resolution
Fraction of the country’s area with difference between 5-km and 50-km deposition
0 – 0.2
Deposition difference (D5km – D50 km)
In ~ 60% of country D5km > D50km
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

21. Concluding remarks (the Netherlands):
Transition to finer resolution improves agreement between modelled and observed pollution levels
Work on HM wind re-suspension will be continued
Refinement of deposition levels could change the spatial pattern of critical load exceedances

22. Additional information for a country derived from country-specific studies (example for the Czech Republic)
Maps of concentrations and deposition
Deposition from individual regions
Source-receptor matrices for regions
5x5 km
5x5 km
Pollution levels from individual large point sources
Contributions of emission source categories
5x5 km
5x5 km
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

23. Additional information for the Czech Republic
Contribution of source categories to deposition of Cd to regions of the Czech Republic
Cd deposition in CZ, 5x5 km
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

24. Conclusions
Emissions with fine spatial resolution improve pollution assessment at national scale.
Country-specific studies allow to involve national monitoring networks. It increases reliability of model verification and pollution assessment in a country
Transition to finer resolution results to:
Improvement of agreement between modelled and observed pollution levels
More detailed spatial variability of country’s pollution levels
Possible changes of pattern of critical loads exceedances compared to modelling with coarser (50x50 km) resolution
Additional country-specific information (pollution budget for regions, pollution from individual sources, etc…) can be produced in close cooperation with national experts
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

27. Conclusions (cont..)
Country-specific case studies will be continued in 2013, focusing on the following items:
Analysis of wet scavenging processes
Further development of wind re-suspension parameterization
Continue assessment of pollution levels in the Netherlands
Finalization of country-specific activity for Croatia
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

28. Modelled Cd air concentrations in the Czech Republic
- priority monitoring stations
- other monitoring stations
50x50 km
5x5 km
72 national stations (2 EMEP)
8 priority stations selected for comparison
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

29. Improvement due to finer resolution
Comparison of modelled and observed air concentrations of Cd for the Czech Republic
275
Transition to finer resolution leads to better agreement between modelled and measured air concentrations
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

31. Additional country-specific information
Detailed country-specific information
Additional country-specific information
Spatial distribution of pollution levels in country’s administrative regions
Source-receptor relationships for individual administrative regions
Pollution levels from emission source categories, from individual point sources, etc…
This information can be prepared by a country independently using MSCE-HM model and pre-processed meteorological data
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

32. Mean concentrations of Pb at stations in the Netherlands and Belgium
Improvement of the model performance due to modification of wind re-suspension parameterization
Modelled vs. observed concentrations of Pb in air
Statistical indices for 6 stations
NRMSE
Rel. Bias
Original re-suspension
1.21
98%
Updated re-suspension
0.39 3%
Mean concentrations of Pb at stations in the Netherlands and Belgium
- For most of stations modelling results improved due to update of HM wind re-suspension scheme
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

33. Improvement due to updated re-suspension
Contribution of wind re-suspension components to pollution levels of Pb in the selected countries
(50 x 50 km)
- Further analysis / investigation of wind re-suspension components is needed, e.g., from urban, bare lands and sea surfaces
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

34. Detailed country-specific information
National vs. transboundary deposition in countries
Croatia
Netherlands
Czech Republic
50 x50 km
Finer resolution
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

35. Benefits for EMEP due to refinement of spatial resolution
Detailed country-specific information
Benefits for EMEP due to refinement of spatial resolution
Deposition to a country
Deposition from a country
Contribution of external sources
50x50 km
10x10 km
- Transition to grid with finer resolution allows to reproduce spatial variability of country’s pollution levels in more detail
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

36. Progress of pollution assessment for the Croatia (Pb, 2007)
Country-specific information on HMs reported annually (50x50 km):
Contribution of external sources
Deposition to a country
Deposition from a country
Can country-specific analysis add more information?
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

37. Monthly mean modeled and observed Pb air concentrations at the Dutch stations
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

38. National vs. transboundary deposition in Croatia
50 x 50 km
10 x 10 km
Main countries-contributors to deposition of Pb to Croatia, 2007
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

39. Contribution of transboundary deposition to a country
Contribution of external sources to deposition in Croatia
10 x 10 km
50 x 50 km
13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta