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Future activities in POP modelling

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Presentation on theme: "Future activities in POP modelling"— Presentation transcript:

1 Future activities in POP modelling
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Future activities in POP modelling Dr. Alexander Malanichev Meteorological Synthesizing Centre East of EMEP Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, 19-22 March 2002, Geneva, Switzerland

2 Topics for discussion Assessment of POP transport on hemispheric scale
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Topics for discussion Assessment of POP transport on hemispheric scale Contribution to effects-based approach New substances evaluation POP model intercomparison study

3 Assessment of POP transport on hemispheric scale
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Assessment of POP transport on hemispheric scale Compound Outflow B[a]P 30 % PCBs 50 % PCDD/Fs 60 % g-HCH 75 % HCB 80 % HCB 80% Considerable outflow from the EMEP calculation grid could point at tangible inflow

4 Assessment on hemispheric scale
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Assessment on hemispheric scale -HCH air concentrations for 1990, ng/m3 European sources only Hemispheric approach allows to estimate influence of remote emission sources

5 Boundary concentration estimate
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Boundary concentration estimate Hemispheric model, 2.5x2.5° Regional model, 150x150 km Hemispheric model will provide boundary concentrations for regional one

6 Advantages of hemispheric approach:
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Advantages of hemispheric approach: Evaluation of EMEP region pollution by external sources influence of European sources on remote regions boundary concentrations for European region transcontinental transport

7 Contribution to effects-based approach
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Contribution to effects-based approach PCB depositions to forests for 1998, g/km2/y PCB soil concentration trend for Germany for Depositions to the various ecosystems, contamination trends

8 Contribution to effects-based approach
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Contribution to effects-based approach >100 days for considerable part of Europe! Number of days with B[a]P air concentrations exceeding limit value of 1 ng/m3 “hot spots”, exceedance of limit values

9 New substances evaluation
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East New substances evaluation Co-operation with ad hoc expert group (WG on Strategies) New substances dicofol hexachlorobutadiene endosulfan pentachlorobenzene polychlorinated naphtalenes pentachlorophenol (PCP) Criteria Toxicity Bio-accumulation Long-Range Transport Potential (LRTP) Overall Persistence

10 Long-Range Transport Potential estimate for pentachlorophenol
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Long-Range Transport Potential estimate for pentachlorophenol Numerical characterization: Transport Distance (TD) is average distance at which the concentration from a standard source falls down to a threshold level TD=2516 km TD=2728 km Hungarian emissions UK emissions PCP air concentrations, ng/m3 Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

11 Overall Persistence estimate for pentachlorophenol
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Overall Persistence estimate for pentachlorophenol Numerical characterization: Clearance time (T1/2) is period of two-fold reduction of overall environmental content with emission=0 T1/2=46 days T1/2

12 POP model intercomparison study
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East POP model intercomparison study Objectives: Exchange of scientific experience Verification and improvement of EMEP/MSCE-POP model Contribution to national modelling activities Comparison of various models output

13 Stages of POP model intercomparison study
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Stages of POP model intercomparison study Preliminary Review of model approaches Stage I Process description and parameterization Stage II Mass redistribution between media Stage III Calculated and measured concentrations Stage IV Evaluation of LRTP and Overall Persistence

14 Expert group for model intercomparison
Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Expert group for model intercomparison Ivan Holoubek Czech Republic Kevin Jones United Kingdom Audrone-Regina Milucaite Lithuania Michael Matthies Germany Martin Scheringer Switzerland Paul Woods Bartlett USA Frank Wania Canada Modellers and experts are welcome!

15 Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East Conclusions Evaluation of POP transport on hemispheric scale is important for pollution assessment in Europe and remote regions (the Arctic, regional seas, other continents) Effects-based approach may be provided by such results as “hot spots” for various ecosystems, exceedance of limit values, long-term accumulations in environmental compartments For evaluation of new substances model estimates of Long-Range Transport Potential and Overall Persistence criteria may be used POP model intercomparison study will improve the quality of POP assessment

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