Evaluation of concentrations of air pollutants and depositions of HMs over the EECCA and SEE regions Ilia Ilyin, EMEP/MSC-E EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

 Convention Action plan for EECCA countries (ECE.EB.AIR/WG.5/2007/17) Involvement of EECCA/SEE countries in the Convention processes is one of the priorities of CLRTAP  Programme for providing EECCA countries with practical and methodological support (EMEP)  Joint activities/workshops of EMEP Centres and national experts (emissions, monitoring, modelling … )  Participation of national experts in Task Forces including financial support from EMEP  Dissemination of materials available in Russian  Expanding of EMEP monitoring network  Extension of EMEP domain to cover Central Asian countries EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

 Inclusion of the Central Asian Countries in EMEP domain  Monitoring network  Emission data  Model results and verification  Cooperation with Working Group of Effects Contents EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

EMEP domain Extension of EMEP domain EMEP domain Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Extension of EMEP domain Extended EMEP domain Information for the extended domain: For Pb For 2006 and on - Pb, Cd and Hg Extension of EMEP domain in order to include territories of Central Asian countries Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Requirements for emission reporting: - Total emission data from a country - Gridded emissions with 50-km resolution - Sector emission data - Information on large point sources Emission data EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia  “Guidelines for estimating and reporting emissions” (ECE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2007/15)  “EMEP/CORINAIR Emission Inventory Guidebook”

Completeness of heavy metals emission data (totals for countries) for Pb, Cd and Hg in EECCA and SEE countries ( ) Emission data EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Emission data on lead in EECCA and SEE countries for 2005 RegionData source Additional assumptions Armenia, Belarus, Croatia, Republic of Moldova, Russia (European part), Ukraine Official data Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Russia (Eastern part) Expert estimates (GEIA-1990) Reduction rate from 1990 to 2005 as in Russia Other EECCA and SEE countries Expert estimates ( TNO ) Interpolation between 2000 and Emission data EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Emissions of lead in 2005 Kazakhstan: – data for are available Emission data kg/km2/y EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

EECCA and SEE countriesSource of data Belarus, Croatia, Republic of Moldova, Russia (European part), Ukraine Official reporting Albania, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Georgia, Kazakhstan, The FYR Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro Expert estimates (TNO); Hg – Pacyna et al, 2000 (global data) Emission data for cadmium and mercury in EECCA and SEE countries for 2005 (over “old” EMEP domain) Emission data EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Extension of EMEP domain Extended EMEP domain Extension of EMEP domain in order to include territories of Central Asian countries Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Expert estimates (TNO); Hg – Pacyna et al, 2000 (global data) Albania, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Georgia, Kazakhstan, The FYR Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro Official reporting Belarus, Croatia, Republic of Moldova, Russia (European part), Ukraine Source of dataEECCA and SEE countries Emission data for cadmium and mercury in EECCA and SEE countries for 2005 (over “old” EMEP domain) Emission data EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Emissions of mercury, 2005 Emission data g/km 2 /y EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Emissions of cadmium, 2005 Emission data g/km 2 /y EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Wind re-suspension of heavy metals (Pb, 2005) Anthrop. emissionsWind re-suspension ~ 5.5 kt / y ~ 9 kt / y Data from EECCA and SEE (wind re-suspension, metal concentrations in soils …) are highly appreciated! Emission data kg/km 2 /y EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Monitoring Heavy metal monitoring network EECCA countries Planned stations EMEP stations (2006) SEE countries EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia  “EMEP monitoring strategy and measurement programme ” (EB.AIR/GE.1/2004/5)  “EMEP manual for sampling and chemical analysis” (

Modelling of heavy metal transboundary pollution (MSCE-HM) Model output: Concentration and deposition fields Transboundary transport Long-term trends Ecosystem-dependent depositions Detailed description: Travnikov O. and Ilyin I., Regional model MSCE-HM of heavy metal transboundary air pollution in Europe. EMEP/MSC-E Technical report 6/2005 EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Model verification Comparison with measurement data Cd air concentrations (2005) at station CZ1 (Czech Republic) CZ CZ1 EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Uncertainty analysis Model uncertainty ~ 30-40% (Pb, Cd) Measurement uncertainty ~ % Emission data uncertainty ~ 2-3 раза Model verification EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia Review of EMEP models (ECE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2006/4) “The HM model …. was appropriate for the operational modelling of heavy metals at the regional scale ”

Air concentrations of lead in 2005 (CAPACT) Model assessment EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Depositions of lead in Model assessment EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Depositions Total emissions Precipitation Depositions of lead in 2005 (Caucasus) Model assessment EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Model assessment Depositions Total emissions Precipitation Depositions of lead in 2005 (Caucasus) EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Heavy metal deposition fluxes over EECCA and SEE countries (2005) Pb 0.2 – 2.1 kg/km 2 /y Pb (mean value and scattering) Cd 3 – 160 g/km 2 /y Hg 2 – 30 g/km 2 /y Model assessment EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Lead depositions from Kazakhstan sources in 2005 Transboundary transport of lead from Kazakhstan sources in 2005 Depositions of Pb from Kazakhstan sources in 2005 (CAPACT project) Model assessment EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Contribution of transboundary transport to depositions from anthropogenic sources Contribution of different sources to depositions in Kazakhstan Transboundary pollution of lead over Central Asian countries Iran, China, … Model assessment To improve these estimates - global-scale modelling EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Main tasks:  Evaluate EMEP region pollution by external sources  Link global, regional, and local scales  Evaluate influence of European sources on remote regions  Provide estimates of intercontinental transport and levels of pollution on global scale EMEP global model

Transboundary transport: Pb % Cd % Hg % Contributions of transboundary transport and national sources to anthropogenic depositions in EECCA and SEE countries (2005) Pb Model assessment EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia Global sources: 5 – 80%

Contribution to effect-based approach (in cooperation with the Working Group on Effects) Depositions of lead to coniferous forests in 2005 EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Depositions of lead to crop lands in 2005 Contribution to effect-based approach EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Country-specific reports EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Detailed country-specific information Emissions Air concentrations Deposition flux EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia Country’s emissions Contribution of external sources Belarus

Depositions from a country Depositions to a country Detailed country-specific information EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Transboundary pollution by HMs and POPs CONVENTION ON LONG-RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION EMEP Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-East Detailed country-specific information EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Conclusions  Territories of the Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan ) were entirely included into the EMEP domain  Emission data were officially reported by 6 EECCA and SEE countries. For other countries emission expert estimates were applied  Wind re-suspension can significantly contribute to heavy metal pollution levels in EECCA and SEE countries, especially in Central Asia. Collaboration of these countries with EMEP in the field of wind re- suspension evaluation is highly appreciated.  The work on establishment of several monitoring stations in EECCA and SEE countries is carried out under supervision of EMEP/CCC. EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

 While monitoring network is scarce, measurement - modelling approach is used within EMEP.  Uncertainties of the emission data (a factor of 2-3) are much larger than those for model results and monitoring data ( %). In order to reduce uncertainties of pollution levels much attention should be paid by countries to quality of their national emission data  In EECCA and SEE countries the contribution of transboundary transport to heavy metal depositions from anthropogenic sources ranges from 15 to 95%. The accuracy of these values can be improved by means of global- scale modelling.  Detailed country-specific information for each country for 2006 will be available through the Internet ( A hard copy of the country-specific reports can be prepared by request. Conclusions (cont.) EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia