Alexey Gusev, Victor Shatalov, Olga Rozovskaya UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution Long-range transport and fate of POPs on global scale and within the EMEP region Alexey Gusev, Victor Shatalov, Olga Rozovskaya Meteorological Synthesizing Centre East of EMEP

Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) EMEP is scientifically based and policy driven instrument for international cooperation to solve transboundary air pollution problems Main activities of EMEP/MSC-E: Assessment of HM and POP pollution levels and transboundary transport in the EMEP domain Estimation of intercontinental transport and global levels of pollution Evaluation of long-term changes in the pollution levels Integrated analysis and assessment of pollution levels using monitoring, emissions and modelling EMEP domain EMEP Global

Integrated approach to study POP pollution Integrated approach – combined analysis of measurements, emissions and modelling results to evaluate spatial and temporal variations of POP polluition Emissions for modelling Official emissions of EMEP countries Expert estimates of emissions for PCBs, PCDD/Fs, HCB PCDD/F emissions to air Measurements EMEP database UNEP SC GMP data warehouse Modelling Global EMEP Multi-media Modelling System (GLEMOS) Measurement sites (GMP Data Warehouse)

Global EMEP Multi-media Modelling System (GLEMOS) GLEMOS features: Eulerian 3D chemistry transport model Multi-pollutant (heavy metals, POPs, aerosol, …) Multi-media formulation (atmosphere, soil, seawater, vegetation, …) Multi-scale consistent approach (from global to local) POPs considered – PCDD/Fs, PAHs, PCBs, HCB GLEMOS general scheme Anthropogenic emissions Atmosphere Land Ocean Human & environment exposure (CCE) Meteorology, ocean data Geophysics Atmospheric deposition Concentration in media

Global distribution of PCB pollution Analysis of modelled and measured PCB-153 air concentrations (UNEP GMP passive sampling data for 2005-2013) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Western Europe and others (WEOG) F2 F5 Modelled and observed PCB-153 in air (2012) Latin America and Caribbean (GRULAC) Africa Asia-Pacific

Global distribution of PCB pollution Analysis of modelled and measured PCB-153 air concentrations (UNEP GMP passive sampling data for 2005-2013) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Western Europe and others (WEOG) F2 F5 Modelled and observed PCB-153 in air (2012) Latin America and Caribbean (GRULAC) Africa Asia-Pacific Underestimation in Africa can be due to unaccounted PCB emission sources like e.g. e-waste disposal (Gioia et al., 2008,2011; Breivik et al., 2014)

Long-term changes of PCB pollution levels Decline of mean PCB-153 air concentrations in different regions from 1990 to 2012 (based on modelling results) UN regional groups Absolute values Western Europe North America WEOG GRULAC Africa CEE Asia Relative values CEE Lowest decline – CEE (~70%) North America Largest decline – North America (~85%)

Long-term changes of PCB pollution levels Modelled and observed mean PCB-153 air concentrations at monitoring sites in Europe (1994-2012) Pallas (Finland) UN regional groups Aspvreten (Sweden) PCB-153 in air, pg/m3 Rorvik/Rao (Sweden) WEOG GRULAC Africa CEE Asia Kosetice (Czech Rep.)

Evaluation of global PCDD/F pollution levels Construction of experimental emission scenario based on the data of the UNEP SC Model evaluation of pollution and comparison with measurements (UNEP GMP and other data) Annual PCDD/F emission to air Modelled and observed PCDD/F air concentrations (2012) Experimental modelling with global emissions based on the UNEP SC inventory of PCDD/F releases provided reasonable agreement between model predictions and measurements (Schuster et al., 2015,. ES&T; Gusev et al., 2014, Org. Comp.)

Concluding remarks Integrated approach, combining emissions inventories, models and measurement data, is a valuable framework for quantifying environmental contamination by POPs EMEP is now expanding its scope to the global scale to correspond global distribution of POP contamination, and to communicate with research community Closer cooperation between UNEP SC, AMAP, and EMEP will help to refine understanding and evaluation of POP transport and fate