Progress and problems of POP modelling Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Progress and problems of POP modelling Prof. Victor Shatalov Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-East of EMEP Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

Work-plan elements 1. Regional and hemispheric model development Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Work-plan elements 1. Regional and hemispheric model development 2. Evaluation of: Concentration and deposition fields Long-term trends Transboundary transport 3. Model validation 4. Co-operation with countries and organizations 5. Evaluation of new substances Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

List of chemicals PAHs PCBs Lindane ( -HCH) HCB PCDD/Fs Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model development List of chemicals PAHs PCBs Lindane ( -HCH) HCB PCDD/Fs Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

POP physical-chemical properties Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model development POP physical-chemical properties PAHs, PCBs, PCDD/Fs: more than 200 compounds each Selection of priority congeners for modelling. PCBs PCDD/Fs 7 congeners 8 congeners PCB-153 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF Group Selected Indicator compound Details in a number of EMEP/MSC-E Technical Notes Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

Peculiarities of POP modelling Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model development Peculiarities of POP modelling Persistence in air and sea - long-range Large accumulation capacities and re-emission ability - multicompartment Relatively low rates of exchange between air and underlying surface – long-term Multicompartment long-term modelling on regional and hemispheric/global scales Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

Transboundary transport Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model development General scheme Meteorological data Emissions POP properties Model input MSCE-POP Model Measurements Long-term trends Spatial distribution Transboundary transport Model output New substances Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

MSCE-POP multicompartment model Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model development MSCE-POP multicompartment model Spatial coverage: Spatial resolution: EMEP region 50x50 km, 150x150 km Northern Hemisphere 2.5x2.5°, 1x1° Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

Concentration levels in media Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model output Concentration levels in media HCB concentrations in media, 1998 Air, ng/m3 Soil, ng/g Seawater, ng/m3 Characterize maps and their usage Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

Long-range transport and hemispheric modelling Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model output Long-range transport and hemispheric modelling Compound Transported outside EMEP region, % of annual emission B[a]P 30 PCBs 50 PCDD/Fs 60 g-HCH 75 HCB 80 g-HCH air concentrations for 1990, ng/m3 Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

PCDD/F emissions and soil concentrations in Germany Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model output Long-term trends (1970 – 1998) About 20-fold emission reduction Only about 1.5-fold soil concentration reduction PCDD/F emissions and soil concentrations in Germany Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

Media response to emission reduction Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model output Media response to emission reduction PCB contamination of environmental media Scenario: Emissions = 0 T1/2 = 6.6 yr Multimedia clearance times (T1/2): 6.6 years 16 years Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

Transboundary transport Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model output Transboundary transport Deposition flux, g/km2/y B[a]P deposition from Poland in 1998 Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

Comparison with measurements Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model validation Comparison with measurements PCB-153 mean annual air concentrations, ng/m3 About 75%: within a factor of 3 Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

Co-operation with national experts Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Co-operation with national experts Interpretation of modelling/ measurement results Comparison of different modelling approaches Joint EMEP reports and publications Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

Review of MSC-E activities Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Review of MSC-E activities Reported: WMO/EMEP Workshop (Moscow, 1996) AMAP Workshop (Bergen, 1998) MEPOP Workshop (Hamburg, 1998) WMO/EMEP/UNEP Workshop (Geneva, 1999) EUROTRAC-2000 Symposium (Garmish-Partenkirchen, 2000) OECD/UNEP Workshop (Ottawa, 2001) Published: EUROTRAC Newsletter Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. Each year conferences in the framework of different international organizations Internet: www.emep.int, www.msceast.org Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

Background Document includes short summary on: Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland 2002 publications Background Document includes short summary on: POP transport and behavior in the environment, EMEP report 4/2002 EMEP Status report EMEP/MSC-E Technical Notes PAHs: physical-chemical properties POP behavior in soil Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

Conclusions Progress achieved Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Conclusions Progress achieved Profound studies of POP phys.-chem. properties. Model description of POP behavior in air, soil, seawater, vegetation. Development of pilot version of POP multicompartment models. Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

Conclusions Modelling results for the EMEP region Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Conclusions Modelling results for the EMEP region (B[a]P, PCB, PCDD/F, -HCH and HCB): Distribution between environmental compartments Spatial distribution of pollution Long-term trends Media response for emission reduction for PCBs and PCDD/Fs Transboundary transport for B[a]P Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

Conclusions Model validation: Further activities: Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Conclusions Model validation: Reasonable agreement with measurements Uncertainty and sensitivity studies (emissions!) POP model intercomparison study Further activities: Assessment of POP transport on hemispheric scale Evaluation of new substances Contributions to effects-based approach Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East