Status of development of the MSC-E Hemispheric/global model 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Status of development of the MSC-E Hemispheric/global model Alexey Gusev, Victor Shatalov, Oleg Travnikov EMEP/MSC-E

Main tasks of hemispheric/global modeling 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Main tasks of hemispheric/global modeling Evaluation of: EMEP region pollution by external sources influence of European sources on remote regions boundary conditions for regional models intercontinental transport pollution levels on hemispheric/global scale

MSC-E hemispheric model 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 MSC-E hemispheric model Horizontal structure: Coverage – Northern Hemisphere Resolution – 2.5°×2.5° Vertical structure: (s-p) coordinate system 9 layers up to 16 km

MSCE-POP hemispheric model 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 MSCE-POP hemispheric model Atmosphere Underlying surface

MSCE-HM-Hem hemispheric model 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 MSCE-HM-Hem hemispheric model Model scheme of Hg behavior in the atmosphere Mercury forms considered in the model: Hg0gas - gaseous elemental Hg(II) - gaseous oxidized Hgpart - particulate oxidized Hg0aq - elemental dissolved Hg2+aq - mercury ion Hg(SO3)2-2 - sulphite complex HgnClm - chloride complexes

Meteorological input data 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Meteorological input data Preprocessor: SDA (System of Diagnosis of low Atmosphere) , Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia Input data: NCEP/DOE or ECMWF re-analysis data Parameters derived from SDA: - Horizontal wind components - Vertical wind speed - Air temperature - Cloudiness - Precipitation - Turbulent coefficient - Surface pressure - Surface temperature - Monin-Obukhov length scale - Friction velocity

Pollution distribution in different media 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Pollution distribution in different media PCB concentrations and depositions for 1996 pg/m3 pg/l g/km2/y Seawater concentrations Air concentrations Depositions

Long-term variations of pollution 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Long-term variations of pollution PCB-153 accumulation and redistribution in media (1970-2000)

Nesting of hemispheric and regional MSC-E models 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Nesting of hemispheric and regional MSC-E models EMEP region Hemispheric models Coverage – Northern Hemisphere Resolution – 2.5°×2.5° One-way nesting Regional models Coverage – EMEP region Resolution – 50×50 km2

Hg intercontinental transport 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Hg intercontinental transport Hg deposition to Germany Hg deposition to the UK Contribution of non-European sources to Hg depositions in the NH EMEP region 25-60% of Hg depositions in Europe comes from global sources

PCDD/F intercontinental transport 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 PCDD/F intercontinental transport Austria 25% Slovakia 6% Poland 5% Germany 8% Czech Republic 9% Other 15% non-European sources 17% Re-emission Finland Other 16% Poland 6% Russian Federation 5% Ukraine 3% Sweden 21% non-European sources 40% Re-emission Contributions of different emission sources to total depositions of 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF over Austria and Finland

Pollution of remote regions 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Pollution of remote regions Hg deposition in the Arctic Total annual Hg deposition in the Northern Hemisphere

Evaluation vs. measurements 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Evaluation vs. measurements Spatial variation (annual mean values) - air concentrations - wet deposition flux TGM concentration Hg wet deposition

Evaluation vs. measurements 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Evaluation vs. measurements  4  1/4 Location of sites measuring PCBs  4  4 PCB-28  1/4  1/4  4  1/4  4 PCB-153  1/4 Annual mean air concentrations of PCB congeners, pg/m3

Evaluation of intercontinental transport 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Evaluation of intercontinental transport TF HTAP coordinated Multi-Model Intercomparison and Evaluation Study : 1) Evaluation of source-receptor relationships 20% decrease of emission in selected regions: North America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia NOx/NMVOC/CO/SO2/NH3, CH4, Hg, POPs, aerosols Base meteorological year: 2001 Each group uses own emissions estimates. 2) Tracer experiments …

MSCE-POP and MSCE-HM-Hem results 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 MSCE-POP and MSCE-HM-Hem results Europe Eastern Asia PCB-153 Hg Decrease of total air concentrations due to 20% emission reduction in different source regions

Limitations of hemispheric modeling approach 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Limitations of hemispheric modeling approach Necessity of definition of boundary conditions along the equator

Further development of MSC-E hemispheric/global approach 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Further development of MSC-E hemispheric/global approach Selection of a meteorological preprocessor for the global scale Extension of model geometry to the global scale Extension of vertical coverage to include lower stratosphere Compilation of land cover information and climatological fields necessary for global modeling Develop common flexible global modeling system for the pollutants considered within EMEP

Requirements for meteorological preprocessor 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Requirements for meteorological preprocessor Global scale coverage Possibility to use ECMWF meteorological analyses Availability of required output parameters Data assimilation Possibility to change horizontal and vertical resolution Nesting capabilities Documentation and support for external users

List of required meteorological parameters 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 List of required meteorological parameters U, V Horizontal wind components Ps Surface pressure Tair Air temperature Qv Water vapour mixing ratio QL Liquid water mixing ratio QI Ice mixing ratio Rconv Convective precipitation Rlarge Large-scale precipitation Kz Turbulent coefficient Ts Surface temperature L Monin-Obukhov length scale U* Friction velocity Hsnow Snow cover height

8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Selection of meteorological preprocessor and driving meteorological input Possible meteorological preprocessors: - Portable Unified Model (UK Met Office) - Global Environmental Multi-scale model (Environment Canada) The use of meteorological analyses of ECMWF as driving meteorological input is agreed: - Global datasets with resolution 1˚x1˚ or finer ( dataset for 2005 is downloaded and in work )

Compilation of geophysical input data 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Compilation of geophysical input data Identification and comparison of global land-use datasets TF HTAP expressed the need to compile global land-use information for its multi-model intercomparison study Compilation of other input information: - data on leaf area index - climatological data (sea surface temperature, snow cover) - spatial distribution of emission sources - poputation density

Harmonization of MSC-E and MSC-W dust re-suspension schemes 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Harmonization of MSC-E and MSC-W dust re-suspension schemes Agreement on dust re-suspension description and parameters Collection and processing of information on soil size distribution and clay content to produce common dataset of soil properties Implementation of the agreed parameterisations Performing coordinated tests and comparison with measurements

Global inventories of emissions 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Global inventories of emissions Global emission inventories for HMs: mercury, lead Global emission inventories for POPs: PCBs, HCHs, HCB Anthropogenic emissions of Hg (1990, 1995, 2000) CGEIC website www.ortech.ca/cgeic/ AMAP website www.amap.no/Resources/HgEmissions

Global inventories of emissions 8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Global inventories of emissions Global emission inventories for HMs: mercury, lead Global emission inventories for POPs: PCBs, HCHs, HCB TF HTAP encourages development of global emission data for studies of intercontinental transport on the basis of GEIA, CGEIC, etc.

8th TFMM meeting, Dessau, 2007 Concluding remarks Developed MSC-E hemispheric models permit to reflect general peculiarities of Hg and POP atmospheric transport within the Northern Hemisphere Limitations of hemispheric approach, connected with definition of boundary conditions, can lead to the uncertainties in computed levels of pollution MSC-E has started to work on the development of global modeling approach for HMs and POPs in cooperation with MSC-W: - Selection of meteorological driver - Downloading of driving meteorological data - Compilation of necessary geophysical information - Further development of parameterization of re-suspension