29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM TRENDS OF ATMOSPHERIC HEAVY METAL POLLUTION IN THE EMEP COUNTRIES BASED ON MOSS SURVEY DATA AND MODELING RESULTS Ilia Ilyin EMEP/MSC-E

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia - in air - wet deposition - collocated Data for the analysis of trends for Modelled deposition in the EMEP region (Pb, Cd, Hg) 2. Observed and modelled data at monitoring stations Selection of stations: data available from to (Pb, Cd) from 1995 to (Hg) Pb, Cd Hg

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Evaluation of modelling results against monitoring data (all stations, ) Rcor = 0.73 Bias = -14% Rcor = 0.50 Bias = -51% Rcor = 0.69 Bias = +28% Pb, wet dep. Hg, wet dep. Cd, wet dep.

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Trends: Changes in the whole EMEP domain Long-term trends of Pb, Cd, Hg deposition ( ) Total reduction: 78%Total reduction: 53%Total reduction: 23% DepositionTrend

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Trends: Changes in the whole EMEP domain Long-term trends of Pb, Cd, Hg deposition ( ) AnthropRe-suspensionnon-EMEP Total reduction: 78%Total reduction: 53%Total reduction: 23%

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Reductions of pollution levels in the EMEP countries mean median 25 th percentile 75 th percentile 5 th percentile minimum maximum 95 th percentile

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Peculiarities of HM trends in particular countries  Fast reduction rate in  Low reduction rate after 2000  Almost uniform reduction rate  Slow decline in the beginning of the period  Stabilization or slow increase in the end of the period

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia HM sites EMEP monitoring stations (2010) Why do we need data on concentrations in mosses?

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia EMEP monitoring stations + moss measurements HM sites wider spatial coverage more detailed spatial resolution Measurements in mosses provide: Why do we need data on concentrations in mosses?

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Data involved in the study Data used:  Concentrations of HMs (Pb, Cd, Hg) in mosses (surveys of 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010); provided by experts from ICP-Vegetations  Modelled deposition of HMs for Compared parameters:  Spatial distributions of HMs deposition and of concentrations in mosses in individual countries (correlation)  Long-term trends Data processing:  Concentrations in mosses are averaged over EMEP 50-km grid cells  Deposition values averaged over 3 years preceding each moss survey

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Selection of area for analysis of long-term trends, Pb Grid-cell averaged Pb concentrations in mosses surveyed in

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Long-term trends of lead and cadmium in the selected region for period Area, selected for analysis of trends (Pb, Cd) Reductions (1990/2010) Deposition 79 % Conc. in mosses 82 % Deposition 56 % Conc. in mosses 53 %

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Area, selected for analysis of trends (Hg) Reductions (1995/2010) Deposition 14% Conc. in mosses 16% Long-term trends of mercury in the selected region for period

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Long-term trends in particular countries Regions involved in analysis of trends

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Changes of pollution levels (Pb) in the EMEP countries

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Changes of pollution levels (Cd) in the EMEP countries

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Changes of pollution levels (Hg) in the EMEP countries

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Spatial distribution of changes of lead deposition and concentrations in mosses

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Spatial distribution of changes of lead deposition and concentrations in mosses Reduction (%) of modelled total deposition Reduction (%) of observed conc. in mosses

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Modelled and observed Pb wet deposition and concentrations in mosses in particular grid points in

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Spatial distribution of changes of Cd deposition and concentrations in mosses

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Spatial distribution of changes of Cd deposition and concentrations in mosses Reduction (%) of modelled total deposition Reduction (%) of observed conc. in mosses

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia % % Changes of calculated deposition emissions of Cd for Deposition change Emission change

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Conclusions  Data on measured concentrations of HMs in mosses is important supplementary information for analysis of pollution levels and their trends in the EMEP region, especially in areas with scarce monitoring network.  Long-term trends of modeled total deposition and concentrations of heavy metals in mosses agree reasonably well. Both deposition and concentrations in mosses demonstrate similar relative reduction for period 1990 – 2010 for Europe as a whole and in most of individual countries.  Lead, cadmium and mercury pollution levels in the EMEP region reduced for by 78, 53 and 23%, respectively. In particular countries the reduction may differ significantly from the EMEP-mean value.  The presented results were obtained in tight cooperation between EMEP and experts from WGE (ICP-Vegetation). Further cooperation between EMEP and WGE is appreciated, in particular, for joint analysis of discrepancies between concentrations in mosses and modelled deposition.

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia

Trends in individual countries

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Reduction (%) of total deposition Reduction (%) of conc. in mosses Spatial distribution of changes of lead deposition and concentrations in mosses

29 th TF meeting of the ICP-Vegetation, March, 2016, Dubna, Russia Trends: Changes in the whole EMEP domain Long-term trends of Pb, Cd, Hg deposition ( ) Total reduction: 23% Total reduction: 53% Total reduction: 78%