EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Activities on monitoring and modelling of POPs in 2014 and future work Victor Shatalov on behalf of MSC-E and CCC

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 EMEP activities on POPs in 2014 Emission data for modelling (CIEP, MSC-E) Monitoring of POPs within EMEP (CCC) Operational modelling within the EMEP region (MSC-E)  Assessment of long-term changes of POP pollution (1990 – 2012)  Evaluation of transboundary transport in 2012  Evaluation of long-term trends of contamination of the EMEP region Research and development:  Assessment of the role of secondary emissions and non-EMEP emission sources in POP pollution on the base of the GLEMOS model  Pilot study on PCDD/F contamination on the global scale with the use of emission inventory obtained under the Stockholm Convention  Refinement of model parameterization Co-operation with national experts, international organizations and programmes  Co-operation with ICP Vegetation  Co-operation with international conventions and programmes (UNEP, HELCOM, …)  Preparation of boundary data for national modelling in Italy Further development of MSC-E web-site (in English and in Russian) The work on evaluation of POP contamination is performed in collaboration with Parties, Convention bodies (WGE, TFMM, TFEIP, TFHTAP, ICPs) and international organizations (Stockholm Convention, HELCOM, AMAP) All the information is presented in MSC-E and CCC reports and at the web-site including special web-page in Russian for EECCA countries.

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Emission data for modelling EMEP official emissions data (Parties, CEIP): Time-series of national emission totals (1990 – 2012, Parties, annually) Gridded sectoral emissions (Parties, once in five years) Emissions from Large Point Sources (Parties, once in five years) Gridded emissions for the latest reported year (2012, CEIP, annually) Additional emissions data for modelling (MSC-E): Time-series of gridded annual emissions for or larger (all) Congener composition of emissions (PCDD/Fs – 17 congeners, PCBs) Historical emissions of PCDD/Fs, HCB and PCB-153 (up to 1990) Intra-annual variations of emissions (all) Emissions to other environmental compartments (PCDD/Fs, HCB) Gridded emissions on a global scale (PCDD/Fs, HCB, PCB-153)

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Monitoring of POPs within EMEP Measurement network for POPs in 2002 and 2012 Not all considered POPs (PAHs, HCB, PCBs) are measured at the shown monitoring sites. No measurements of PCDD/F at the EMEP monitoring network. Coverage of the EMEP domain by measurements is still incomplete.

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Supplementary measurement data Detailed references on PCDD/F measurements used in the EMEP reports [Shatalov et al., 2013; Gusev et al., 2014] Measurements of PCDD/Fs in air in remote and rural areas ( ; compiled by MSC-E): Europe: Italy, Denmark, France, Germany, the UK, Switzerland, Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands, Spain [Castro-Jimenez et al., 2012;…] North America: the USA, Canada [Lorber et al., 2013;…] Southeast Asia: Taiwan, China, Japan, South Korea [Chi et al., 2013;…] Regional POP networks (EMEP, AMAP, IADN, …) Global and regional POP monitoring programs (GAPS, MONET, PNA COP, …) available through GMP of Stockholm Convention European measurement database AirBase Other pollutants: POP passive sampling programs Monitoring

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Evaluation of pollution changes from 1990 to 2012 HCB, 1990 HCB, 2012 PCB-153, 1990 PCB-153, 2012 PAHs, 1990 PAHs, 2012 Comparison of spatial distribution of POP air concentrations in 1990 and 2012 Operational activities PCDD/Fs, 1990 PCDD/Fs, 2012 Relative changes of POP air concentrations in the entire EMEP domain from 1990 to 2012

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Reduction of POP pollution in the EMEP countries from 1990 to 2012, PCDD/Fs (total toxicity) Operational activities Reduction of PCDD/F air concentrations in three groups of the EMEP countries from 1990 to 2012 Large reduction (up to 90%) Small reduction (2% – 30%) EU28 CountryReduction 1990 – 2012 the Netherlands93% Belgium90% the UK75%… Turkey9% Kyrgyzstan2%

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Reduction of POP pollution in the EMEP countries from 1990 to 2012, 4 indicator PAHs Reduction of PAH air concentrations in three groups of the EMEP countries from 1990 to 2012 Operational activities Small reduction or even increase Negative values mean increase (2% – 20%) CountryReduction 1990 – 2012 the UK90% Germany70%… Portugal– 3% Azerbaijan– 5% Kyrgyzstan– 22% increase

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Reduction dynamics of POP pollution in the EMEP countries Exemplified by B[a]P Considered period: from 1990 to 2010 (to be performed each 5 years?) Discussed at TFMM meeting in Bologna, Italy, April 2014 Reduction rates are not homogeneous in time Bi-exponential trends were applied (see MSC-E Technical Report, 2014) Operational activities the United KingdomBelarus Reduction 1990 – %12% Reduction 2000 – %0%

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Reduction dynamics of POP pollution: seasonal variations Operational activities Calculated B[a]P air concentrations in the Czech Republic, 1990 – 2010, monthly means Pronounced seasonal variations are seen Methodology of trend analysis taking into account seasonal variations should be elaborated. To be discussed at the forthcoming TFMM workshop (November 2014) Averaged trend does not show maximum values

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Reduction of POP pollution in the EMEP countries from 1990 to 2012, PCB-153 and HCB Operational activities PCB-153 National emissions Transboundary transport Non-EMEP sources Secondary sources Reasons of reduction: PCB-153 – 80% HCB – 90% Reduction: Main factors for PCBs and HCB

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Evaluation of contamination at the global scale PCDD/Fs PCB-153 HCB On the basis of global calculations evaluation of the contributions of non- EMEP sources and secondary emissions to the pollution by contaminants with high transport distance was done (in collaboration with TFHTAP) Research and development EMEP domain

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Contributions of various source categories to the contamination of the EMEP region in 2012 Discussed at TFMM meeting in Bologna, Italy in April 2014 Evaluation of contributions of EMEP anthropogenic, secondary and non-EMEP emissions to the contamination of the EMEP region PCDD/Fs PCB-153 HCB Research and development EMEP secondary emissions 68% EMEP anthropogenic emissions 23% non-EMEP emissions 9% EMEP secondary emissions 75% EMEP anthropogenic emissions 1% non-EMEP emissions 24% EMEP secondary emissions 20% non-EMEP emissions 19% EMEP anthropogenic emissions 61% Transboundary transport within EMEP Depositions to France, g TEQ/y Non-EMEP, 177.7, 30% Other, 87.4, 15% Belgium, 15.7, 3% Italy, 29.0, 5% United Kingdom, 31.3, 5% Spain, 27.7, 5% France, 220.8, 37% total g TEQ/y Depositions from France, g TEQ/y France, 220.8, 66% Russian Federation, 9.8, 3% Germany, 20.9, 6% Belgium, 10.0, 3% United Kingdom, 9.1, 3% Other, 64.9, 19% total 335 g TEQ/y

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Pilot study on PCDD/Fs Major reasons:  Incompleteness of regional and global inventories of anthropogenic PCDD/F emissions  Uncertainties of estimates of secondary emissions and behaviour in media  Lack of regular monitoring of atmospheric concentrations Aim of the study:  Evaluate global scale transport and pollution levels using estimates of global PCDD/F emissions based on the UNEP SC inventory Challenges:  Underestimation of observed PCDD/F pollution levels in the EMEP countries by modelling results Research and development

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Scenario of global PCDD/F emissions is based on the UNEP Standardized Dioxins Toolkit contains PCDD/F emission totals for 68 countries over the globe (including 15 EMEP countries) estimates of releases to air, soil and water Emissions of PCDD/Fs to the environmental media evaluated on the basis of UNEP SC inventory, kg TEQ/yr UNEP SC inventory of PCDD/F emissions [Fiedler, 2007; Fiedler et al., 2012]: Pilot study on PCDD/Fs Air, 74.3 Soil, 9.7 Water, 4.3

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Scenario of global PCDD/F emissions Spatial distribution of annual PCDD/F emission is based on population density (1°x1°) Annual emissions to air (ng TEQ/m 2 /yr)Annual emissions to soil (ng TEQ/m 2 /yr) UNEP SC data for 68 countries are complemented by estimates of emissions for other countries using regression relationship between annual PCDD/F releases and GDP (Gross Domestic Product): Release = A × (GDP/Pers) – B, similar to [Cao et al., 2013] A and B are defined by linear regression between Log(Release) and Log(GDP/Pers). Pilot study on PCDD/Fs

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Official EMEP emissions vs scenario based on the UNEP SC inventory For the majority of the EMEP countries officially reported PCDD/F emissions are lower than estimates of the experimental scenario based on the UNEP SC inventory Pilot study on PCDD/Fs

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Model simulations and results Global scale model runs with 1°x1° resolution (reference year 2012) Spin-up model simulations for several decades to obtain initial conditions Modelling is carried out with the emissions of total toxicity of 17 2,3,7,8- substituted (toxic) PCDD/F congeners to air and soil Modelled annual mean PCDD/F air concentrations, fg I-TEQ/m 3 /yr Modelled annual mean PCDD/F concentrations in soil, ng I-TEQ/kg Pilot study on PCDD/Fs

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Evaluation of model results against measurements Annual mean modelled and observed PCDD/F air concentrations Underestimation 4.8 times; Correlation = 0.5 Underestimation 1.9 times Correlation = 0.8 Underestimation 1.5 times Correlation = 0.5 EMEP domain The US PCDD/F emission (g I-TEQ/yr): - USEPA emissions: Extrapolation from SC data: [Zhang et al., 2009,AE]: 3425 Pilot study on PCDD/Fs

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Modelling with official EMEP emissions and scenario based on the UNEP SC inventory (EMEP domain) Emission scenario based on the UNEP SC data – reasonable agreement Official emissions reported by the EMEP countries – underestimation Model predictions vs measurements for the EMEP domain factor of 2 factor of 5 Pilot study on PCDD/Fs

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Concluding remarks Pilot study on PCDD/Fs  For a number of countries emissions calculated on the basis of UNEP SC inventory exceed those based on the EMEP official emission data  Secondary emissions and non-EMEP emission sources can noticeably contribute to pollution of EMEP countries  Further progress requires refinement of PCDD/F emissions for EMEP domain and other regions and developing of global historical emissions  Closer co-operation between CLRTAP and UNEP SC with respect to compilation of emissions and assessment of pollution is of importance  Experimental modelling with global emissions based on the UNEP SC inventory of PCDD/F releases provides reasonable agreement between model predictions and measurements

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, th International Symposium on Halogenated Persistent Organic Pollutants More that 650 abstracts from about 40 countries Scientific program: Sources, formation, transport and fate, monitoring of levels in the environment, trends, human exposure, and risk assessment for new and legacy POPs Special session: 10 th anniversary of the Stockholm Conventions on POPs  Long-term trends in observed concentrations of POPs: contribution of EMEP to the Global Monitoring Plan of the SC (CCC)  Pilot modelling of PCDD/F transport and fate on global scale and within the EMEP region (MSC-E) Co-operation EMEP contribution

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Co-operation between CLRTAP and UNEP SC  There is substantial potential for collaboration: listing of chemicals, compilation of emissions, assessment of pollution levels, trends,…  SC Secretariat at the 37 th EMEP SB session (2013): proposal to enhance co-operation of SC with EMEP on air monitoring, emission inventories and long-range transport modelling of POPs  Further step in this direction: Memorandum of Understanding to provide basis for closer co- operation and exchange of information [Geneva, September 2013] Co-operation

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Long-term cooperation with HELCOM Changes of Cd, Pb, Hg, and PCDD/F deposition to the Baltic Sea from 1990 to 2011 Annual PCDD/F deposition in 2011, ng TEQ/m 2 /year Atmospheric input of HMs and POPs to Baltic Sea Co-operation

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Co-operation with ICP Vegetation Modelled annual deposition of B[a]P and measurements of B[a]P concentrations in mosses in 2010 Correlation coefficients between calculated deposition and concentrations in mosses Discussed at ICP Vegetation Task Force, Paris, January 2014 Sub-grid variations can affect the comparison. Modelling with finer spatial resolution is required Co-operation

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Co-operation with countries Co-operation In the framework of co-operation with the Italian national agency (ENEA), boundary conditions for modelling of 4 PAHs for 2010 by the national modelling system MINNI were prepared. Agreed area Annual mean air concentrations of B[a]P in 2010 in the EMEP domain and in the agreed area, ng/m 3

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 MSC-E web site: Measurement data Modelling results Assessment of effects Dissemination of EMEP information Emissions data

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 Information for EECCA countries in Russian

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014 MSC-E work-plan elements in 2015 Operational activities Research and development Co-operation and dissemination of information (1.1.7, 1.3.9, 1.6.2, 1.6.3, 4.3)  Evaluate POP contamination levels and transboundary transport in the EMEP region for 2013, including ecosystem-dependent deposition (1.3.2)  Estimate contamination trends (1.1.4)  Develop near real time concentrations and deposition data for 2014 (1.3.9)  Test regional version of GLEMOS in long-lat grid including SR relationships (1.3.4)  Further estimate intercontinental transport and contributions of secondary sources to POP pollution in the EMEP domain (1.3.6, 1.6.2)  Refine model description of the interaction between POPs and atmospheric aerosol (1.3.8 c)  Investigate the influence of climate change on secondary emissions of POPs (1.3.8 d)