Trend analysis for HMs and POPs Output information for EMEP assessment report based on trend analysis I. Ilyin, EMEP / MSC-East

Information on long-term changes of HM and POP levels for the report Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at the EMEP stations Seasonality Random component Shift relative to beginning of year Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates Overall reduction Changes of transboundary transport Pollution levels caused by emission source categories Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission sources) Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation) Large Point Sources (LPS) Deposition to ecosystems

Information on long-term changes of HM and POP levels for the report Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at the EMEP stations Seasonality Random component Shift relative to beginning of year Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates Overall reduction Changes of transboundary transport Pollution levels caused by emission source categories Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission sources) Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation) Large Point Sources (LPS) Deposition to ecosystems

Analysis of pollution trends in the EMEP region Reduction = 6 (5 – 7)% per year Reduction = 3.4% per year Reduction = 2.2 (1.1 – 3.1)% per year Reduction = 1.2 (-3.2 – 3.9)% per year

Mean reduction rate of pollution levels in the EMEP countries for 1990-2010 Rates of total deposition reduction of lead in the EMEP countries Maximum (beginning of the period) Average rate for period 1990-2010 Minimum (end of the period)

Mean reduction rate of pollution levels in the EMEP countries for 1990-2010 Rates of total deposition reduction of lead in the EMEP countries

Mean reduction rate of pollution levels in the EMEP countries for 1990-2010 Rates of total deposition reduction of B[a]P in the EMEP countries B[a]P

Mean annual reduction rates in countries Average reduction rate and overall reduction in the EMEP countries for 1990-2010 Mean annual reduction rates in countries Maximum among countries 95 percentile 75 percentile Average among countries 25 percentile 5 percentile Minimum among countries

Average reduction rate and overall reduction in the EMEP countries for 1990-2010 Mean annual reduction rates in countries Overall reduction in countries for 1990-2010

Reduction of Pb deposition 1990 and 2010 in the EMEP region Effect of transboundary transport on long-term changes of pollution levels Reduction of Pb deposition 1990 and 2010 in the EMEP region

Factors affecting long-term trends Effect of transboundary transport on long-term changes of pollution levels Deposition of Pb Reduction of Pb deposition caused by changes of national, foreign and sum of secondary and non-EMEP sources between 1990 and 2010 in countries of the EMEP region

Factors affecting long-term trends Effect of transboundary transport on long-term changes of pollution levels Deposition of Pb Reduction of Pb deposition caused by changes of national, foreign and sum of secondary and non-EMEP sources between 1990 and 2010 in countries of the EMEP region

Changes in key source categories Contribution of source categories to HM deposition in EMEP countries Lead 18 Mercury

Information on long-term changes of HM and POP levels for the report Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at the EMEP stations Seasonality Random component Shift relative to beginning of year Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates Overall reduction Changes of transboundary transport Pollution levels caused by emission source categories Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission sources) Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation) Large Point Sources (LPS) Deposition to ecosystems