POPs and HMs Summary 8.5.2015, EMEP TFMM

Monitoring strategy – LEVEL 1 Heavy metals in precipitation: Cd, Pb (1st priority), Cu, Zn, As, Cr, Ni (2nd priority)

Monitoring strategy – LEVEL 2 POPs in air (PAHs, PCBs, HCB, chlordane, HCHs, DDT/DDE) POPs in precipitation (PAHs, PCBs, HCB, chlordane, HCHs, DDT/DDE) Heavy metals in air : Cd, Pb (1st priority.), Cu, Zn, As, Cr, Ni (2nd priority) Mercury in precipitation Mercury in air

Trend assessment session 1 comprehensive presentation by MSC-E 2 presentations focused on HM trends 2 general presentations with HM results 0 POPs trends (1 in section Monitoring strategy)

Input data for trend analysis Measurement data: from 1990-1992 to 2008-2010 (Pb, Cd) from 1996 to 2008-2010 (Hg, B[a]P) Modelling data: Pb, Cd, Hg, B[a]P from 1990 to 2012 1990 … 2012 HMs and POPs Trend analysis: Stage 1 analysis of the agreement between of measurement and modelling results Stage 2 analysis of calculated trends 5

Comparison of trends at Czech stations (Pb) Stage 1 Comparison of trends at Czech stations (Pb) Disagreement is obtained in the first half of the considered period. Seasonal variations are in a good agreement. Further analysis with experts in modelling, measurements and emissions is needed 6

Trends for the entire EMEP domain Stage 2 Trends for the entire EMEP domain PCB-153, air concentrations Average annual reduction rates in countries (air concentrations) Total reduction 72% Pb, total deposition Total reduction 78% 7

Change of transboundary transport of HMs and POPs Peculiarities of HM and POP transport Change of transboundary transport of HMs and POPs 1990 – 2012, PCDD/Fs Reduction of contamination due to national and foreign sources to PCDD/F deposition (contributions of anthropogenic emissions) 8

Influence of intercontinental transport Peculiarities of HM and POP transport Influence of intercontinental transport Changes of contributions of EMEP and non-EMEP sources to PCB-153 air concentrations in mixing layer over EMEP domain Non-EMEP sources: 35% Non-EMEP sources: 30% 9

Influence of intercontinental transport Peculiarities of HM and POP transport Influence of intercontinental transport Changes of contributions of EMEP and non-EMEP sources to mercury deposition fluxes Emission of mercury in 2012 Contribution of non-EMEP sources ~ 7 – 9 g/km2/y Перемешивание эмиссии от различных континентов 10

MSC-East Prog applied to industrial tracers in PM2.5 (Montseny; RB) 16th Task Force on Measurement and Modelling Meeting. 5 - 8 May 2015. Krakow

Trend of TSP and Pb in background ambient air (Berezinsky reserve) Reduction of air concentrations from 1980 to 2009: TSP:64% (slope: -2.2%/year Pb: 93% (slope: -3.2%/year) Cd:56% (slope: -1.9%/year) Pb

ITALY generally, the most significant changes in concentrations are explained by the changes in anthropogenic emissions Ni concentrations decreased below 3 ng/m3 in 2010 in spite of an overall increasing of As emissions (S03) and Pb emissions (S02, S07, S08) in 2010 with respect to 2005, their concentrations in the Po Valley had decreased Cd and Pb concentrations had increase around Torino and Brescia in correspondance of an increase in anthropogenic emissions significativ increase of concentrations close to the boundaries is observed caused by BCs from EMEP/MSC-E model and foreign emissions inventories simulations reproduce well the observed changes at most of the stations; the increase of grid resolution does not improve always the agreement with measurements due to complex interactions between orography, meteorology and emissions

Lead concentrations in air, ng/m3 1990-2001 2002-2012 Astrakhan Danki

Cadmium concentrations in air, ng/m3 1990-2001 2002-2012 Astrakhan Danki

Mercury concentrations in air, ng/m3 1990-2001 2002-2012 Danki

Lead & Cadmium concentrations in precipitation, mcg/l 2002-2012 Pb Cd Astrakhan Danki

Mercury concentrations in precipitation, mcg/l 2002-2012 Astrakhan Danki

Key messages for the assessment report Because of insufficient coverage of the EMEP domain by monitoring stations with long-term time series combined analysis using measurements with modeling is needed for further evaluation of pollution trends. In order to validate modeled long-term changes of pollution levels against observation data it is reasonable to remove random component of modelled and measured time series and compare their trends rather than initial values. Strong improvement of data quality in the period under review (1990 – 2015) must be taken into acconut by trend analyses

Key messages for the assessment report Peculiarities of long-term changes of pollution levels in the EMEP domain, particular countries and groups of countries (e.g. EECCA, EU) were revealed by analysis of trends. This information could be included to TFMM trend report Since intercontinental transport significantly influences EMEP pollution levels, global emission inventories and monitoring data outside the EMEP region are needed. From this viewpoint, collaboration with other international bodies (Minamata Convention, Stockholm Convention, AMAP, GMOS etc.) is needed.

Key messages for the assessment report Secondary sources significantly contribute to HM and POP levels in the EMEP region. In order to improve model assessment of the levels in the EMEP countries, regional and global historical inventories of emissions to the atmosphere and other media (soils, waters) is needed. Besides, in addition to data on atmospheric monitoring of pollution levels, measurement data in other environmental compartments (soil, water, vegetation) are appreciated. Trend analysis can provide additional information for evaluation of harmful effects from pollution by HMs and POPs.