Model assessment of HM and POP pollution of the EECCA region Oleg Travnikov Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

Complex assessment of HM and POP pollution within EMEP region EMEP pollution assessment Complex assessment of HM and POP pollution within EMEP region Monitoring network (EMEP countries, CCC) Model assessment of pollution levels (MSC-E) Emissions reporting (EMEP countries, CEIP)

Monitoring data in EECCA region Monitoring of heavy metals (Cd) HM and POP measurements: EMEP measurements allow evaluation of modelling results No EMEP measurement data is available in ECCAA region Measurements from national networks (co-operation with CCC is needed) Heavy metal measurements in moss (WGE/ICP Vegetation)

Status of heavy metal and POP emissions reporting in 2018 Emissions reporting in EECCA region Status of heavy metal and POP emissions reporting in 2018 Country Total Grid Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Republic of Moldova Russian Federation Tajikistan Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan Pb reported emissions for 2016 and expert estimates (CEIP) - reported and used - reported, not used CEIP Technical Report 02/2018

Information on pollution of EMEP countries Pb deposition (2016) Data on HM and POP pollution updated annually: Concentration/deposition maps Belarus Armenia Available at www.msceast.org

Information on pollution of EMEP countries Cd deposition from foreign sources in Georgia (2016) Source apportionment of Cd deposition in Georgia Russia (117 kg) Turkey (73 kg) Georgia (69 kg) Ukraine (33 kg) Other (31 kg) Armenia (16 kg) Data on HM and POP pollution updated annually: Concentration/deposition maps Country-to-country transboundary transport Available at www.msceast.org

Information on pollution of EMEP countries Changes of Hg deposition in Republic of Moldova (1990-2016) Changes of Hg deposition in Armenia (1990-2016) 4 3 2 1 g/km2 /month Value Main Comp Trend 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1997 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Data on HM and POP pollution updated annually: Concentration/deposition maps Country-to-country transboundary transport Long-term trends of pollution levels Available at www.msceast.org

Ecosystem-specific deposition for evaluation of adverse effects Information for exposure assessment Ecosystem-specific deposition for evaluation of adverse effects Hg deposition inland waters (2016) Hg deposition to forests (2016)

Information for exposure assessment Model estimates of HM and POP deposition to watersheds of rivers and lakes Glåma watershed Hg deposition in 2016 Hg deposition to LC categories of Glåma watershed Coniferous forests 46% Shrubs 26% Grassland 8% Wooden grassland Mixed forest 4% Other

Model assessment of human exposure to high B(a)P levels Information for exposure assessment Model assessment of human exposure to high B(a)P levels B(a)P air concentration (2017) Population in areas with exceeded EU target value (1 ng/m3) for B(a)P Exceedances of B(a)P limits in EMEP countries: EU target value (1 ng/m3) 17% of urban (10% of total) population WHO reference level (0.12 ng/m3) 46% of urban (75% of total) population

Measurements of B(a)P concentrations in Europe (AirBase) Analysis of implementation of POP Protocol Measurements of B(a)P concentrations in Europe (AirBase) B(a)P measurements (AirBase) 1 2 3 4 5 PL HR SI AT LT IT CZ FR GB IE NO CH DE FI CY BE EE B(a)P in air, ng/m 15 Average measured levels of B(a)P in EMEP countries Changes of measured B(a)P in Europe EU target level 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 BaP in air, ng/m3 EU target value B(a)P emissions in EMEP countries Joint efforts of TFTEI, EMEP and Parties are needed for preparation to review POP Protocol. MSC-E can contribute with appropriate model estimates

Country-scale pollution assessment Objective: Assessment of HM and POP pollution on a country scale involving national experts and variety of national data Countries involved: Czech Republic, Croatia, Netherlands, UK, Poland, Spain, France, Germany, Belarus Main outcomes: Detailed information on pollution patterns Source apportionment and contribution of emission sectors Evaluation of national emissions Recommendations for assessment improvement Participating countries

Compilation of country-scale input information Heavy metal pollution in Belarus Compilation of country-scale input information Emissions data (lead): Gridded emissions - 10×10 km2 Source categories Large-point sources - National background site - National urban sites - EMEP site - Urban background sites (AirBase) Location of measurement sites Berezinsky reserve PL5 (EMEP) Pb emissions in Belarus in 2010 Monitoring data: National background (1 site) National urban (19 sites) EMEP sites (1 site, Poland) Urban background (5 sites, Poland) Geophysical information: Meteorological data Land cover Heavy metal concentration in soil

Model assessment of Pb pollution levels in the country Heavy metal pollution in Belarus Model assessment of Pb pollution levels in the country - Secondary - Other anthrop. - City - non-EMEP 0.0 0.5 1.0 Average deposition, kg/km /y 2 Contribution of industrial combustion sector Detailed information for the country: Pb deposition in Belarus Pollution levels with fine spatial resolution (10×10 km2) - Poland - Ukraine - Germany - Italy - Belarus Source-receptor relationships for the country and its regions Pollution of large cities Pollution from various emission sectors

Comparison of model and observations data at urban sites Heavy metal pollution in Belarus Comparison of model and observations data at urban sites 0.5 1 2 10 100 Model, ng/m 3 Observed, ng/m Model vs. observations at urban sites (Belarus) Pb concentration in Belarus (2012)

Comparison of model and observations data at urban sites Heavy metal pollution in Belarus Comparison of model and observations data at urban sites Urban observations of Pb in European countries (AirBase) -20 20 40 60 Belarus Poland Czech Rep. Germany Spain Pb air concentrations, ng/m 3 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Belarus Poland Czech Rep. Germany Spain Mean emission flux, kg/km 2 /y Mean emission flux of Pb in European countries Location of urban sites Base map: Pb emissions flux (2012) National emission data for Belarus can still contain significant uncertainties. Co-operation with TFEIP is encouraged

Evaluation of national emissions (Poland) Use of modelling and measurements for construction of emissions scenario Cd air concentration in Poland 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Air concentration, ng/m 3 PL0505 Cd emissions in Poland Residential combustion Other sectors 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Emission, tonnes/year PL0505 Measurements Modelling (original) Scenario Modelling (scenario)

Annual anthropogenic emissions of Cd in Poland in 2014 Evaluation of national emissions (Poland) Annual anthropogenic emissions of Cd in Poland in 2014 Original Scenario Total: 13.6 t/y Total: 17.2 t/y (26% increase) Emissions of Cd from residential combustion are, probably, underestimated in the south and southwest parts of the country

Country-scale studies for EECCA countries What is needed? Wiliness to take part (actively) National emissions data (with fine resolution) National measurements Participation of national experts in the analysis