Oleg Travnikov EMEP/MSC-E Heavy metal modelling: implementation of the model review recommendations Oleg Travnikov EMEP/MSC-E

Recommendations of TFMM Workshop on the HM/POP models review Evaluation of driving meteorological fields Development of the model parameterization for HM re-suspension from the ground surface Extension of the model for the second priority metals (As, Cr, Ni, Cu, Se, Zn) Inclusion of a shallow lowest model layer Improvement of the description of removal processes (Hg dry depositions to forests) Further research and improvement of the description of Hg chemical transformations in the atmosphere Extension of the hemispheric model to the global scale

Recommendations of TFMM Workshop on the HM/POP models review Evaluation of driving meteorological fields Development of the model parameterization for HM re-suspension from the ground surface Extension of the model for the second priority metals (As, Cr, Ni, Cu, Se, Zn) Inclusion of a shallow lowest model layer Improvement of the description of removal processes (Hg dry depositions to forests) Further research and improvement of the description of Hg chemical transformations in the atmosphere Extension of the hemispheric model to the global scale

Evaluation of meteorological data Evaluation procedure Analysis of physical processes parameterization in the meteorological pre-processor (MM5) Evaluation of generated meteorological fields against ECMWF (ERA-40) and GPCP data Analysis of spatial and temporal variation of meteorological parameters (wind speed, air temperature, precipitation amount etc.)

Evaluation of meteorological data cm/mon MM5 (set #1) MM5 (set #6) ECMWF Monthly precipitation amount in July 2000 Spatial correlation of monthly precipitation modelled by MM5 against ECMWF and GPCP data

Evaluation of meteorological data Concluding remarks The optimum set of the pre-processor (MM5) parameters was derived from the evaluation procedure Good agreement was obtained between meteorological fields generated by the pre-processor and ECMWF/GPCP data It is planed to move to the ECMWF input data for the pre-processing

Wind re-suspension of HM Dust suspension: Saltation Horizontal movement of soil aggregates (40 mm – 10 mm) Sandblasting Collisions of soil aggregates resulting in emission of dust particles (0.1 – 20 mm)

Horizontal saltation flux Threshold wind friction velocity [Marticorena & Bergametti, 1995] Factors affecting saltation: Threshold wind stress Size of soil aggregates Soil moisture

Sandblasting Vertical dust flux Dust aerosol populations [Alfaro & Gomes, 2001] Dust aerosol populations mode 1 mode 3 mode 2 [Alfaro et al., 1997; 1998] mode 1 Soil populations [Chatenet et al., 1996] Alumino-silicated-silt (ASS) 125 mm Fine sand (FS) 210 mm Salts (Sa) 520 mm Coarse sand (CS) 690 mm

Dust suspension from soil Dust suspension flux (2000) Types of ground surface: Deserts, bare soils Agricultural soils (during cultivation period) Urban areas

HM concentration in soil Pb concentration in European soils Default HM concentrations in soil (Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia) Metal Conc (mg/kg) Reference Pb 15 Reimann and Cariat, 1998 Cd 0.2 Nriagu, 1980 As 5 Beyer & Cromartie, 1987 Cr 50 Shacklette et al., 1970 Ni FOREGS (www.gtk.fi/publ/foregsatlas/)

Sea salt suspension Vertical sea salt flux [Gong, 2003] Size distribution of mass flux HM emission factors Gong-Monahan Metal EF (mg/kg) Reference Pb 4000 Richardson et al., 2001 Cd 40 As 300 Nriagu, 1989 Cr 80 Ni 180

Anthropogenic emissions vs. re-suspension (Pb) Anthropogenic emissions (ESPREME)

Anthropogenic emissions vs. re-suspension (Pb) Pb emissions in European countries Pb mean concentration in soil

Anthropogenic emissions vs. re-suspension (Cd) Anthropogenic emissions (ESPREME)

Anthropogenic emissions vs. re-suspension (Cd) Cd emissions in European countries Cd mean concentration in soil

Model evaluation for different emission scenarios Comparison of official/TNO emissions data and ESPREME estimates Lead Cadmium Official/TNO – 11 kt/y ESPREME – 13 kt/y Official/TNO – 280 t/y ESPREME – 580 t/y

Model results vs. observations Pb Annual mean Pb concentration in precipitation (2000) Official/TNO Official/TNO+resuspen. ESPREME+resuspen. Areg = 0.35 Rcorr = 0.7 Areg = 0.62 Rcorr = 0.66 Areg = 0.79 Rcorr = 0.62 Areg – linear regression coefficient Rcorr – correlation coefficient

Model results vs. observations Cd Annual mean Cd concentration in precipitation (2000) Official/TNO Official/TNO+resuspen. ESPREME+resuspen. Areg = 0.26 Rcorr = 0.76 Areg = 0.33 Rcorr = 0.71 Areg = 0.71 Rcorr = 0.53 Areg – linear regression coefficient Rcorr – correlation coefficient

Second priority metals Annual depositions of As, Cr, Ni in 2000 As Cr Ni

Second priority metals Ni Annual mean Ni concentration in air (2000) Air concentration of Ni at different monitoring sites (ESPREME emissions) Official/TNO ESPREME Areg 0.69 1.27 Rcorr 0.87 0.83

Conclusions A tentative parameterisation of wind re-suspension of heavy metals from soil and seawater has been developed Re-suspension of lead is comparable to anthropogenic emissions, whereas cadmium re-suspension insignificantly contribute to total emission in Europe Modelling results based on the ESPREME estimates commonly demonstrate better agreement with measurements than those on the official/TNO data The model parameterisation has been extended for the second priority metals. Preliminary modelling results demonstrate satisfactory agreement with measurements