10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris Application of monitoring-modelling approach for the analysis of the emission data Ilia Ilyin, EMEP/MSC-E EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

Available EMEP emissions data Completeness of reported HMs emission totals for 1990-2007 Complete datasets of emission totals are available for 25 countries There is no national emissions data for 14 EMEP countries Incomplete information for 11 EMEP countries EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

Available EMEP emissions data Coverage of EMEP region with emission data for Pb (2007) Gridded data – 29 countries EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

Expert emission estimates Heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Hg) TNO estimates for Europe for 2000, 2010 and 2020 (Denier van der Gon et al., 2005) ESPREME project estimates for Europe for 2000, 2010 UNEP/AMAP global Hg emissions (2005) Contemporary expert emission estimates are highly needed! EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

Modelling of pollution levels Pb emission Pb total deposition Pb air concentrations EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris Model evaluation (Pb, 2006) Annual mean Pb concentration in air Annual mean Pb concentration in precipitation Mod = 0.68 Obs Corr = 0.69 Mod = 0.83 Obs Corr = 0.72 CZ3 FI17 FI93 FI92 FI36 FI22 Pb NO55 Pb EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

Model evaluation: example for Finnish sites Monthly mean Pb concentration in precipitation (2006) FI93 (Kotinen, Finland) August, 2006 June, 2006 EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

Model evaluation: testing effects of changes in emission data Pb emissions (2006) Numerical experiment: Run 1: Official emission data Run 2: ESPREME estimates for Russian Federation Run 3: ESPREME estimates for Russian Federation, 3-fold increase of emissions in St. Petersburg area Run 1 Run 2 Run 3 См. тест «new Russia-4» EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris Emissions in 2006 and 2007 Pb, 2006 Pb, 2007 Total emission over European part of Russia 2006 355 t / y (official data) 2007 2400 t / y (CEIP estimates) EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris Updated information on emissions and measurements for 2007 Pb, 2007 Station FI17 (Virolahti II) Concentrations in air and in precip. High (daily) temporal resolution for conc. in air Relatively close to Russian emission sources EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris Comparison of concentrations in air at FI17 (Pb, 2007) v Episode 1 v Episode 2 Based on new (2007) data for Russian Federation EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

Application of back trajectories 72 hrs back trajectories and emissions of lead Episode 1: 08 August 2007 FI17 St. Petersburg August, 08, 18 h FI17 St. Petersburg August, 08, 12 h FI17 St. Petersburg August, 08, 00 h FI17 St. Petersburg August, 08, 06 h Emission, g/km2/y Traj. Height, m EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

Application of back trajectories 72 hrs back trajectories and emissions of lead Episode 1: 10 August 2007 FI17 St. Petersburg August, 10, 00 h FI17 St. Petersburg August, 10, 18 h FI17 St. Petersburg August, 10, 06 h FI17 St. Petersburg August, 10, 12 h Emission, g/km2/y Traj. Height, m EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

Application of back trajectories 72 hrs back trajectories and emissions of lead Episode 1: 13 August 2007 FI17 St. Petersburg August, 13, 00 h FI17 St. Petersburg August, 13, 18 h FI17 St. Petersburg August, 13, 06 h FI17 St. Petersburg August, 13, 12 h Emission, g/km2/y Traj. Height, m EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

Application of back trajectories 72 hrs back trajectories and emissions of lead Episode 2: 17 September 2007 FI17 St. Petersburg September, 17, 00 h FI17 St. Petersburg September, 17, 18 h FI17 St. Petersburg September, 17, 06 h FI17 St. Petersburg September, 17, 12 h Emission, g/km2/y Traj. Height, m EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

Application of back trajectories 72 hrs back trajectories and emissions of lead Episode 2: 21 September 2007 FI17 September 21, 00 h FI17 September 21, 18 h FI17 September 21, 06 h FI17 September 21, 12 h Emission, g/km2/y Traj. Height, m EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris Potential regions-sources of Pb at FI17 v RU, EE, LV, LT, DE, PL, UA… EE, LV, LT, PL SE, DE, DK… RU DK, SE, EE, RU, PL EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris Concentrations in air at FI17 (Pb, 2007): “new” vs. “old” emission data for Russia v Episode 1 v Episode 2 EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris

10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris Conclusions Monitoring-modelling approach (including analysis of back trajectories) can be useful tool for identification of regions where quality of emission data deserve special attention Measurements with high temporal resolution favours more detailed analysis of discrepancies between model and measurements Gaps in HM emission data are filled with information based on expert estimates. However, existing expert estimates are becoming outdated and more contemporary emission expert estimates are needed Case study focused on the complex analysis of heavy metal pollution levels in a country with participation of national experts, modellers, experts in emissions and monitoring is proposed to be organized under EMEP/TFMM EMEP/MSC-E 10th TFMM meeting, June, 2009, France, Paris