Population Change in the United States: Implications for Education, the Labor Force and Economic Development Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Steve H. Murdock, Director Hobby Center for the Study of Texas and Allyn and Gladys Cline Professor of Sociology Rice University Higher Education Summit Corpus Christi, Texas November 10, 2011

Total Population and Percent Population Change in Texas and the United States, Total Population Percent Change YearTexasU.S. TexasU.S ,592 23,191, ,215 31,443, ,579 39,818, ,591,749 50,155, ,235,527 62,947, ,048,710 75,994, ,896,542 91,972, ,663, ,710, ,824, ,775, ,414, ,669, ,711, ,697, ,579, ,323, ,196, ,302, ,229, ,545, ,986, ,709, ,851, ,421, ,145, ,745, Source: Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau decennial census April 1 of reported year. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Components of Change, U.S. and Texas, United States Texas ComponentNumeric Change Percent of Total Change Numeric Change Percent of Total Change Total Change25,584, ,930, Natural Increase15,875, ,124, Net Domestic Migration , Net International Migration9,709, , Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Change State 2000 Population 2010 PopulationNumericPercent United States281,421,906308,745,53827,323, Texas20,851,82025,145,5614,293, California33,871,64837,253,9563,382, Florida15,982,37818,801,3102,818, Georgia8,186,4539,687,6531,501, North Carolina8,049,3139,535,4831,486, Arizona5,130,6326,392,0171,261, Virginia7,078,5158,001,024922, Washington5,894,1216,724,540830, Colorado4,301,2615,029,196727, Nevada1,998,2572,700,551702, Ten States in the United States with the Largest Numeric Population Increase Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Change State 2000 Population 2010 Population NumericPercent United States281,421,906308,745,53827,323, Nevada1,998,2572,700,551702, Arizona5,130,6326,392,0171,261, Utah2,233,1692,763,885530, Idaho1,293,9531,567,582273, Texas20,851,82025,145,5614,293, North Carolina8,049,3139,535,4831,486, Georgia8,186,4539,687,6531,501, Florida15,982,37818,801,3102,818, Colorado4,301,2615,029,196727, South Carolina4,012,0124,625,364613, Ten States in the United States with the Largest Percentage Population Increase Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Population of the United States by Regions, Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Population in Thousands (Thousands) United States/ Regions United States76,212151,326179,323203,302226,546248,710281,422308,746 Regions Northeast Midwest South West

Place PopulationChange Number Percent New York, NY8,008,2788,175,133166, Los Angeles, CA3,694,8203,792,62197, Chicago, IL2,896,0162,695, , Houston, TX1,953,6312,099,451145, Philadelphia, PA1,517,5501,526,0068, Phoenix, AZ1,321,0451,445,632124, San Antonio, TX1,144,6461,327,407182, San Diego, CA1,223,4001,307,40284, Dallas, TX1,188,5801,197,8169, San Jose, CA894,943945,94250, Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L Population 2000 and 2010 and Population Change for the Ten Most Populous Incorporated Places in the United States

Change Percent of Population Race/ Ethnicity* NumericPercent NH White (Anglo)10,933,31311,397,345464, Hispanic6,669,6669,460,9212,791, NH Black2,364,2552,886,825522, NH American Indian68,85980,58611, NH Asian554,445948,426393, NH Hawaiian/Pac. Isldr.10,75717,9207, NH Some Other Race19,95833,98014, NH Two or More Races230,567319,55888, Total20,851,82025,145,5614,293, ________ Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L *Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (non-Hispanic White[Anglo], non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic American Indian, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, non-Hispanic Some Other Race, non-Hispanic Two or More Races). Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the State of Texas, 2000 and 2010

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Age 18+ Years of Age by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010 Change Percent of Population Race/Ethnicity* NumericPercent NH Whites (Anglo)8,426,1669,074,684648, Hispanic (All Races)4,282,9016,143,1441,860, NH Black1,631,4482,076,282444, NH Asian 415, ,968301, NH "Other" Races70,61295,97325, NH Two or More Races138,715172,68633, State of Texas14,965,06118,279,7373,314, Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Less than 18 Years of Age by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010 Change Percent of Population Race/Ethnicity* NumericPercent NH Whites (Anglo) 2,507,1472,322, , Hispanic (All Races) 2,386,7653,317,777931, NH Black 732,807810,543 77, NH Asian 139,226231,458 92, NH "Other" Races 28,96236,513 7, NH Two or More Races 91,852146,872 55, State of Texas 5,886,7596,865, , Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non- Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)

*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010 PopulationPopulation Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* NumericPercent Percent of Total Change NH White194,552,774196,817,5522,264, Hispanic (All Races)35,305,81850,477,59415,171, NH Black33,947,83737,685,8483,738, NH Asian10,123,16914,465,1244,341, NH Other7,492,3089,299,4201,807, Total281,421,906308,745,53827,323,

*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population 18 and Older by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010 PopulationPopulation Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* NumericPercent Percent of Total Change NH White150,525,687157,100,9906,575, Hispanic (All Races)22,963,55933,346,70310,383, NH Black23,337,57327,323,6653,986, NH Asian7,702,89511,288,9953,586, NH Other4,598,3805,503,718905, Total209,128,094234,564,07125,435,

*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010 PopulationPopulation Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* NumericPercent Percent of Total Change NH White44,027,08739,716,562-4,310, Hispanic (All Races)12,342,25917,130,8914,788, NH Black10,610,26410,362, , NH Asian2,420,2743,176,129755, NH Other2,893,9283,795,702901, Total72,293,81274,181,4671,887,

*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for Metropolitan Central City Counties in the United States, 2000 and 2010 PopulationPopulation Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* Numeric Percent Percent of Total Chg NH White 30,849,68327,506,006-3,343, Hispanic (All Races) 10,972,72315,001,6124,028, NH Black 8,908,6018,775, , NH Asian 2,275,8742,973,879698, NH Other 2,144,2582,833,831689, Total 55,151,13957,090,5401,939,

*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non- Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for Metropolitan Suburban Counties In the United States, 2000 and 2010 PopulationPopulation Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* Numeric Percent Percent of Total Chg NH White 3,777,8313,750,909-26, Hispanic (All Races) 406,567731,989325, NH Black 450,858481,08030, NH Asian 59,990101,09841, NH Other 145,255237,25491, Total 4,840,5015,302,330461,

*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non- Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for Non-Metropolitan Counties in the United States, 2000 and 2010 PopulationPopulation Change Percent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* Numeric Percent Percent of Total Chg NH White 9,399,5738,459, , Hispanic (All Races) 962,9691,397,290434, NH Black 1,250,8051,105, , NH Asian 84,410101,15216, NH Other 604,415724,617120, Total 12,302,17211,788, ,

Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2010 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2040* Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2010 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2050 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Educational Attainment for the Texas Population Age 25 and Older by Race/Ethnicity, 2009 Race Ethnicity Population Age 25 and Older Less than high school High school diploma Some college or associates degree Bachelor or more Non-Hispanic White8,026, Black1,705, Hispanic*4,876, Asian580, Total15,361, ________ Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, *Includes Hispanic persons of all races.

Educational Attainment for the United States Population Age 25 and Older by Race/Ethnicity, 2009 Race Ethnicity Population Age 25 and Older Less than high school High school diploma Some college or associates degree Bachelor or more Non-Hispanic White139,962, Black22,975, Hispanic*26,106, Asian9,404, Total201,952, ________ Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, *Includes Hispanic persons of all races.

Total and Percent of the Texas Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, 1999 and Population in Poverty% Median Household Income* Population in Poverty% Median Household Income Anglo 826,4597.8$60,839 1,010,1709.0$59,836 Hispanic 1,658, $38,536 2,364, $35,628 Black 525, $37, , $35,438 Asian 65, $64, , $63,692 Other42, NA40, NA Total 3,117, $51,506 4,150, $50,043 *In 2009 Dollars Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and American Community Survey, 2009

Total and Percent of the United States Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, 1999 and Population in Poverty% Median Household Income* Population in Poverty% Median Household Income Anglo15,414,1198.1$58,52319,462, $54,671 Hispanic7,797, $43,44211,130, $39,923 Black8,146, $37,9569,407, $33,463 Asian1,257, $66,9611,539, $68,780 Other1,284, NA1,327, NA Total 33,899, $54,172 42,868, $50,221 *In 2009 Dollars Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and American Community Survey, 2009 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Educational Attainment for the United States Population Age 25 and Older by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Race Ethnicity Population Age 25 and Older Less than high school High school diploma Some college or associates degree Bachelor or more Non-Hispanic White139,695, Black23,530, Hispanic*27,313, Asian9,964, Total204,288, ________ Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, *Includes Hispanic persons of all races.

Average (Mean) SAT Scores for College Bound Seniors in the United States in 2001 by Selected Characteristics Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

PROJECTIONS Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Numeric Change in the Projected U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions) Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Projected Change in the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050

Projected Age Distribution of the U.S. Population: 2000 to 2050 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2000 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Projected Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2050 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

Percent of Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected Percent of Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2040 for Texas Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration

U.S. EDUCATION

Projected Elementary and Secondary School, Community College and Public University Enrollment in the United States by Race/Ethnicity,

Percent of Projected Elementary and Secondary School, Community College and Public University Enrollment in the United States by Race/Ethnicity,

Percent of Net Change in Elementary and Secondary School, Community College and Public University Enrollment in the United States Due to Each Race/Ethnicity,

TEXAS EDUCATION Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Enrollment and Change in Enrollment of Economically Disadvantaged and All Students by Ethnicity in Texas Public Schools, and School Years Enrollment10-Year ChangeProportion Race/Ethnicity NumericPercent Economically Disadvantaged White359,510443, 93384, African American369,393475,994106, Other36,73466,87430, Hispanic1,190,3631,866,376676, Total1,956,0002,853,177897, Total White1,727,7331,615, , African American576,977679,351102, Other114,979198,99284, Hispanic1,582,5382,354,042771, Total4,002,2274,847,844845, Source: Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools,

District/County/School Year White (%) African American (%)Hispanic (%) Asian/Pacific Islander (%) Native American (%) Total Enrollment Houston ISD (Harris) , ,245 Dallas ISD (Dallas) , ,162 Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (Harris) , ,097 Northside ISD (Bexar) , ,581 Austin ISD (Travis) , ,697 Fort Worth ISD ( Tarrant) , ,651 Fort Bend ISD (Fort Bend) , ,948 North East ISD (Bexar) , ,604 Arlington ISD (Tarrant) , ,484 El Paso ISD (El Paso) , ,330 Total Public School Students by Race/Ethnicity in the 10 Largest* School Districts in Texas, and *Largest enrollment based on school year Source: Data compiled by the Texas State Data Center from Texas Education Agency, Academic Excellence Indicator System (AEIS) District Profiles

Texas Higher Education Enrollment in Public Universities, Public 2-year Colleges and Health-related Institutions by Race/Ethnicity, 2000 and 2008 Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity Public Univ Public 2-year Colleges Health-related Institutions 2000 Enrollment White (%) African American (%) Hispanic (%) Asian (%) American Indian (%).5 International (%) Unknown (%) Total 2000 Enrollment414,626447,99813, Enrollment White (%) African American (%) Hispanic (%) Asian (%) American Indian (%).5.6 International (%) Unknown (%) Total 2008 Enrollment509,136617,50720,421 Source: Data compiled by the Texas State Data Center using data from the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (THECB)

Public Elementary and Secondary Public Community College, and Public University Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to (1.0 Scenario)

Percent of Public Elementary and Secondary, Public Community College and Public University Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to (1.0 Scenario)

U.S. LABOR FORCE

Projections of the Civilian Labor Force of the United States from 2001 to 2050 by Race/Ethnicity from the Middle Projection Scenario

Percent of the Projections of the Civilian Labor Force of the United States from 2001 to 2050 by Race/Ethnicity for the Middle Projection Scenario

Percent of Net Change in the U.S. Civilian Labor Force from Due to Each Race/Ethnicity Group Under Middle Scenario

TEXAS LABOR FORCE Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Projections of Civilian Labor Force in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios, 2000 to 2040 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Projections of the Percent of Civilian Labor Force in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios, Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Average Household Income in Texas, * (in 2000 Dollars)

Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by Family Type in Texas, 2000 and 2040

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Average Annual Household Income in Texas and the United States by Educational Attainment of Householder in 2000*

Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040* Assuming Trends in Educational Attainment Rates Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040* *Source: Texas State Data Center. Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario $251 $621 $765 $938 $210 $528 $629 $ Base Values 2040 Assuming 2000 Attainment Differentials 2040 Assuming Trends in Differentials 2040 Assuming Anglo Trends Apply to all Groups $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 Billions Aggregate IncomeConsumer Expenditures Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

The mark of a truly educated man is to be moved deeply by statistics. George Bernard Shaw

Race/Ethnicity by Age for the Population in Texas,

Race/Ethnicity by Age for the Population in Texas,

Steve Murdock Phone: Website: