Presentation on theme: "Texas: Demographic Characteristics and Trends"— Presentation transcript:
1 Texas: Demographic Characteristics and Trends Midsize Agency Coordinating CouncilOctober 13, 2011Austin, TXLila Valencia is Legislative Liaison and Research Associate at the Office of the State Demographer.
2 Growing States, 2000-2010 United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 Population*2010NumericalChangePercentUnited States281,421,906308,745,53827,323,6329.7%Texas20,851,82025,145,5614,293,74120.6%California33,871,64837,253,9563,382,30810.0%Florida15,982,37818,801,3102,818,93217.6%Georgia8,186,4539,687,6531,501,20018.3%North Carolina8,049,3139,535,4831,486,17018.5%Arizona5,130,6326,392,0171,261,38524.6%Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.15.7% of numerical change in U.S.Texas is the second largest state in terms of population (2nd to CA) and area (2nd to AK). In terms of number of people, Texas’ growth exceeds that of all other states between 2000 and 2010.Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Counts.
3 Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009 Percent Change Due toYear*PopulationNumericalChangeNaturalIncreaseNetMigrationPercent19507,711,194--19609,579,6771,868,4831,754,652113,83124.293.916.09197011,196,7301,617,0531,402,683214,37016.986.7413.26198014,229,1913,032,4611,260,7941,771,66727.141.5858.42199016,986,5102,757,3191,815,670941,64919.965.8534.15200020,851,8203,865,3101,919,2811,946,02922.849.6550.35200924,782,3023,930,4842,124,1241,781,78518.854.0445.33*All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.The components of change include natural increase (births-deaths) and net migration (in-out migration). In recent years, natural increase and net migration have contributed almost equally to Texas’ growth. Natural increase is much more predictable and stable than net migration. Net migration tends to fluctuate with economic factors.
4 Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000-2009 Migration into Texas has made very significant contributions to our population growth for the past few decades. International migration is estimated to have made significant contributions this decade. Generally, international migration is regulated and tends not to vary substantially from year to year. Internal (state-to-state) migration is estimated to have increased significantly in the middle of this decade and has remained relatively high. However, with the economic downturn, internal migration into Texas is likely slowed. Internal migration is not regulated by the government and is largely driven by the presence or absence of jobs and economic opportunity. Therefore, internal migration tends to be variable and dependent upon economic fluctuations.Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates.
5 States with Largest Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010 Estimate (thousands)RangeCalifornia2,550(2, ,750)Texas1,650(1, ,850)Florida825( )New York625( )New Jersey550( )Illinois525( )Georgia425( )Arizona400( )Texas has an estimated 1.65 million unauthorized immigrants. Assuming most unauthorized migrants were counted in the Census, this represents about 6.5% of the total population.Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011).
6 Total Population by County, 2010 Population % Change, 2000 to 2010Texas population growth is not occurring uniformly across counties. The map on the left shows the counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, and Travis are the most populated in the State. Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, and El Paso counties also have significant population concentrations. Many counties west of Interstate 35 are more sparsely populated.The darker blue colors on the map on the right indicate counties with greater percentage change. The counties that are shaded in tan mostly experienced negative change, or population decline. Thus, many of the more rural, less populated counties have experienced declines in population over the past ten years. Most counties experienced increases within 10% to 25%, while a smaller number of counties surrounding urbanized areas experienced significant growth beyond 25%.Source: U.S. Census Bureau P.L Redistricting Data.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
7 Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, As of the 2000 Census, about 53% of Texas’ population was non-Hispanic Anglo, about 32% where of Hispanic descent, about 11% where non-Hispanic African American, and about 4% were non-Hispanic Other.In 2010, it is estimated that about 45% of the Texas population was non-Hispanic Anglo, 38% of Hispanic descent, 11% were non-Hispanic African American, and about 6% were non-Hispanic Other (largely of Asian descent).Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Counts.
8 Texas Racial & Ethnic Composition and Change, 2000 and 2010 Race/Ethnicity20002010ChangePercent of PopulationNumericPercentNH White10,933,31311,397,345464,0324.252.445.3Hispanic6,669,6669,460,9212,791,25541.832.037.6NH Black2,364,2552,886,825522,57022.111.311.5NH Asian554,445948,426393,98184.108.40.206NH Other330,141452,044121,903220.127.116.11Texas20,851,82025,145,5614,293,74120.6100.0The NH White population accounted for 11% of the total population growth in Minorities accounted for 89%. Hispanics accounted for 65% of the total population growth. Of the 4.3 million people added to the Texas population in 2010, 2.8 million were Hispanic.Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 P.L Redistricting Data.
9 Population by County, 2010 Non-Hispanic White Hispanic The non-Hispanic White population is concentrated in the five urban counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, and Travis. The counties surrounding these urban centers also hold concentrations of this population.The Hispanic population of Texas is most concentrated in Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Hidalgo, and El Paso counties. With the exception of El Paso, the surrounding counties of these Hispanic concentrated counties have significant Hispanic populations.Source: U.S. Census Bureau P.L Redistricting Data.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
10 Population by County, 2010 Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Asian The Black population in Texas is also most concentrated in Dallas and Harris counties and to a lesser extent in their surrounding counties. A significant Black population can also be seen in Bexar, Travis, and other east Texas counties. The Asian population of Texas is most concentrated in Dallas and Harris. Travis, Tarrant, Collin, and Fort Bend also have sizable Asian communities.Source: U.S. Census Bureau P.L Redistricting Data.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
11 Percent Change in Population by County, 2000 to 2010 Non-Hispanic WhiteHispanic161 counties lost non-Hispanic Anglo population over the decade while 92 counties gained non-Hispanic Anglo population.232 counties gained Hispanic population, while only 22 lost Hispanic population.Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 P.L Redistricting Data.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
12 Percent Change in Population by County, 2000 to 2010 Non-Hispanic BlackNon-Hispanic Asian204 counties gained in Asian population while only 38 lost Asian population over the decade (12 counties remained unchanged).117 counties gained Black population while 133 lost Black population.Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 P.L Redistricting Data.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
13 Projected Racial and Ethnic Population Percentages for Texas, 2000-2040 The migration scenario is likely the most realistic to consider in short term projections. Using this scenario, the number of Hispanics will likely exceed the number of non-Hispanic Anglos in the State around 2015.Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, Migration Scenario.
14 Texas Population Pyramid, 2010 Median ageSource: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer.
15 Texas Population Pyramids by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Texas is young. Approximately 27% of Texas are under 18, and 10% of the population is over 65 years. However, this age distribution varies by race/ethnicity. This Texas population pyramid indicates that the portion of the population that is non-Hispanic White is generally older than the other racial/ethnic groups. The portion of the population that is of Hispanic descent is comparatively young. This is also true for the African American portion of the population.Median ageSource: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer.
16 Texas Population 18 and Older by Race/Ethnicity, 2000 and 2010 ChangePercent of PopulationNumericPercentNH White8,426,1669,074,684648,5187.756.349.6Hispanic4,282,9016,143,1441,860,24343.428.633.6NH Black1,631,4482,076,282444,83427.310.911.4NH Asian415,219716,968301,74918.104.22.168NH Other209,327268,65959,3322.214.171.124Texas14,965,06118,279,7373,314,67622.2100.0Differential population growth by race/ethnicity is especially evident when looking at race/ethnic shares among those 18 and over and those under 18 years of age. Among those 18 and older, non-Hispanic Whites constitute the majority of the population at 50%. Hispanics make up 34% of those 18 and over, and NH Blacks, NH Asians, and NH Other make up 11%, 4%, and 2%, respectively.Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 P.L Redistricting Data.
17 Texas Population Under 18 by Race/Ethnicity, 2000 and 2010 ChangePercent of PopulationNumericPercentNH White2,507,1472,322,661-184,486-7.442.633.8Hispanic2,386,7653,317,777931,01239.040.548.3NH Black732,807810,54377,73610.612.511.8NH Asian139,226231,45892,232126.96.36.199NH Other120,814183,38562,57151.82.02.7Texas5,886,7596,865,824979,06516.6100.0Among those under 18 years of age, Hispanics make up close to half of the population in Non-Hispanic Blacks and Asians make up similar proportions of the 18 and older as well as the under 18 populations, with about 11% for non-Hispanic Blacks and 3% for non-Hispanic Asians.Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 P.L Redistricting Data.
18 Population Aged 65 Years and Older in Texas Counties, 2010 Percent of total populationPopulation 65 years plusTexas is also aging. The age structure of many of the more rural counties are becoming older compared to more urban counties. While many of the urban counties have smaller percentages of their population in the older ages, the actual numbers of people aged 65+ are increasingly concentrated in urban counties and the southern border.Source: U.S. Census Bureau Summary File 1 Data.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
19 Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older in Texas Counties, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected These two maps demonstrate the projected shift in the age structure of Texas at the county level. The age-structure in many counties in Texas will become older over the coming decades. The urban counties and the border counties will become older but not to the same extent as many of the more rural counties.Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
20 Demographics & Destiny Texas is growing – with more people being added than in any other state.Texas is becoming more urban. Many rural counties are losing population. Urbanized metropolitan areas have been growing dramatically over the decade.Texas is becoming more diverse – much of our growth is attributable to growth of the Hispanic population.
21 Office of the State Demographer ContactOffice: (512) or (210) Website:Office of the State DemographerThe Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to supporting your work through providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of Texas.