1. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Population Change in Texas: Implications of the 2010 Census for Education, The Labor Force and Economic Development Steve H. Murdock, Director Hobby Center for the Study of Texas and Allyn and Gladys Cline Professor of Sociology Rice University
TEDA in Houston
March 24, 2011
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

2. Major Topics of the Presentation __________________________
Population Change
Increasing Racial/Ethnic Diversity
Aging of the Population
Implications of Demographic Change for Education, The Labor Force and Economic Development
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

3. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Total Population and Percent Population Change in Texas and the United States,
Total Population
Percent Change
Year
Texas
U.S.
1850
212,592
23,191,876
---
1860
604,215
31,443,321
184.2
35.6
1870
818,579
39,818,449
35.5
26.6
1880
1,591,749
50,155,783
94.5
26.0
1890
2,235,527
62,947,714
40.4
25.5
1900
3,048,710
75,994,575
36.4
20.7
1910
3,896,542
91,972,266
27.8
21.0
1920
4,663,228
105,710,620
19.7
14.9
1930
5,824,715
122,775,046
24.9
16.1
1940
6,414,824
131,669,275
10.1
7.2
1950
7,711,194
150,697,361
20.2
14.5
1960
9,579,677
179,323,175
24.2
19.0
1970
11,196,730
203,302,031
16.9
13.4
1980
14,229,191
226,545,805
27.1
11.4
1990
16,986,510
248,709,873
19.4
9.8
2000
20,851,820
281,421,906
22.8
13.2
2010
25,145,561
308,745,538
20.6
9.7
Source: Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau decennial census April 1 of reported year.
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

4. Components of Change, U.S. and Texas, 2000-2009
United States
Texas
Component
Numeric Change
Percent of Total Change
Total Change
25,584,644
100.0
3,930,482
Natural Increase
15,875,579
62.1
2,124,124
54.0
Net Domestic Migration
----
---
848,702
21.6
Net International Migration
9,709,065
37.9
957,656
24.4
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census. 4

6. Ten Largest States in the United States
by Population Size in 2010
Change
State
2000 Population
2010 Population
Numeric
Percent
United States
281,421,906
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7
California
33,871,648
37,253,956
3,382,308
10.0
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6
New York
18,976,457
19,378,102
401,645
2.1
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
2,818,932
17.6
Illinois
12,419,293
12,830,632
411,339
3.3
Pennsylvania
12,281,054
12,702,379
421,325
3.4
Ohio
11,353,140
11,536,504
183,364
1.6
Michigan
9,938,444
9,883,640
-54,804
-0.6
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
1,501,200
18.3
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,535,483
1,486,170
18.5
Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

7. Ten States in the United States with the
Largest Numeric Population Increase
Change
State
2000 Population
2010 Population
Numeric
Percent
United States
281,421,906
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6
California
33,871,648
37,253,956
3,382,308
10.0
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
2,818,932
17.6
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
1,501,200
18.3
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,535,483
1,486,170
18.5
Arizona
5,130,632
6,392,017
1,261,385
24.6
Virginia
7,078,515
8,001,024
922,509
13.0
Washington
5,894,121
6,724,540
830,419
14.1
Colorado
4,301,261
5,029,196
727,935
16.9
Nevada
1,998,257
2,700,551
702,294
35.1
Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

8. Ten States in the United States with the
Largest Percentage Population Increase
Change
State
2000 Population
2010 Population
Numeric
Percent
United States
281,421,906
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7
Nevada
1,998,257
2,700,551
702,294
35.1
Arizona
5,130,632
6,392,017
1,261,385
24.6
Utah
2,233,169
2,763,885
530,716
23.8
Idaho
1,293,953
1,567,582
273,629
21.1
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,535,483
1,486,170
18.5
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
1,501,200
18.3
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
2,818,932
17.6
Colorado
4,301,261
5,029,196
727,935
16.9
South Carolina
4,012,012
4,625,364
613,352
15.3
Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

9. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Regional Population Change as a Proportion of U.S. Population Change,
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

10. Population of the United States by Regions, 1910-2010
Population in Thousands (Thousands)
United States/
Regions
1900
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
United States
76,212
151,326
179,323
203,302
226,546
248,710
281,422
308,746
Northeast
27.6
26.1
24.9
24.1
21.7
20.4
19.0
17.9
Midwest
34.5
29.4
28.8
27.9
25.9
24.0
22.9
South
32.2
31.2
30.7
30.9
33.3
34.4
35.6
37.1
West
5.7
13.3
15.6
17.1
19.1
21.2
22.5
23.3
Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

11. Texas Regional Councils
of Governments 11 11

12. Councils of Governments in Texas Ranked by Total Population in 2010: Total Population in 2000 and 2010; Numeric and Percent Change, ; and Percent of the State Population (2010) and State Population Change
Total Population
Population Change
Percent of State
Council of Government
2000
2010
Numeric %
Population
Change,
North Central Texas
5,309,277
6,539,950
1,230,673
23.2
26.0
28.7
Houston-Galveston
4,854,454
6,087,133
1,232,679
25.4
24.2
Alamo Area
1,807,868
2,249,011
441,143
24.4
8.9
10.3
Capital Area
1,346,833
1,830,003
483,170
35.9
7.3
11.3
Lower Rio Grande Valley
924,772
1,203,123
278,351
30.1
4.8
6.5
East Texas
745,180
829,749
84,569
3.3
2.0
Rio Grande
704,318
825,913
121,595
17.3
2.8
Coastal Bend
549,012
571,987
22,975
4.2
2.3
0.5
Central Texas
374,518
449,641
75,123
20.1
1.8
1.7
Panhandle
402,862
427,927
25,065
6.2
0.6
Permian Basin
376,672
417,679
41,007
10.9
1.0
South Plains
377,871
411,659
33,788
1.6
0.8
South East Texas
385,090
388,745
3,655
0.9
1.5
0.1
Deep East Texas
355,862
378,477
22,615
6.4
Heart of Texas
321,536
349,273
27,737
8.6
1.4
South Texas
264,177
330,590
66,413
25.1
1.3
West Central Texas
324,901
327,390
2,489
Brazos Valley
267,085
319,447
52,362
19.6
1.2
Ark-Tex
270,468
281,947
11,479
1.1
0.3
Nortex
224,366
222,860
-1,506
-0.7
0.0
Texoma
178,200
193,229
15,029
8.4
0.4
Golden Crescent
183,905
188,626
4,721
2.6
Middle Rio Grande
154,381
167,010
12,629
8.2
0.7
Concho Valley
148,212
154,192
5,980
4.0
State of Texas
20,851,818
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6
100.0 12 12

13. Texas Metropolitan Statistical Areas13 13

14. Total Population in 2000 and 2010 in Metropolitan Statistical Areas in
Texas Ranked by Numerical Change Between 2000 and 2010
Total Population
Change
Metropolitan Statistical Area
2000
2010
Numeric %
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown
4,715,407
5,946,800
1,231,393
26.1
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington
5,161,544
6,371,773
1,210,229
23.4
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos
1,249,763
1,716,289
466,526
37.3
San Antonio-New Braunfels
1,711,703
2,142,508
430,805
25.2
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
569,463
774,769
205,306
36.1
El Paso
679,622
800,647
121,025
17.8
Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood
330,714
405,300
74,586
22.6
Brownsville-Harlingen
335,227
406,220
70,993
21.2
Laredo
193,117
250,304
57,187
29.6
College Station-Bryan
184,885
228,660
43,775
23.7
Lubbock
249,700
284,890
35,190
14.1
Tyler
174,706
209,714
35,008
20.0
Corpus Christi
403,280
428,185
24,905
6.2
Amarillo
226,522
249,881
23,359
10.3
Waco
213,517
234,906
21,389
10.0
Midland
116,009
136,872
20,863
18.0
Longview
194,042
214,369
20,327
10.5
Odessa
121,123
137,130
16,007
13.2
Sherman-Denison
110,595
120,877
10,282
9.3
San Angelo
105,781
111,823
6,042
5.7
Abilene
160,245
162,252
5,007
3.1
Victoria
111,663
115,384
3,721
3.3
Texarkana*
89,306
92,565
3,259
3.6
Beaumont-Port Arthur
385,090
388,745
3,655
0.9
Wichita Falls
151,524
151,306
-218
-0.1
Source: U.S. Census Bureau *Reflects total population for Texas portion of MSA only. 14 14

15. Total Population in 2000 and 2010 and Population Change
for the Twenty Largest Counties in Texas (2010)
Change
County
2000
2010
Numeric
Percent
Harris County
3,400,578
4,092,459
691,881
20.3
Dallas County
2,218,899
2,368,139
149,240
6.7
Tarrant County
1,446,219
1,809,034
362,815
25.1
Bexar County
1,392,931
1,714,773
321,842
23.1
Travis County
812,280
1,024,266
211,986
26.1
El Paso County
679,622
800,647
121,025
17.8
Collin County
491,675
782,341
290,666
59.1
Hidalgo County
569,463
774,769
205,306
36.1
Denton County
432,976
662,614
229,638
53.0
Fort Bend County
354,452
585,375
230,923
65.1
Montgomery County
293,768
455,746
161,978
55.1
Williamson County
249,967
422,679
172,712
69.1
Cameron County
335,227
406,220
70,993
21.2
Nueces County
313,645
340,223
26,578
8.5
Brazoria County
241,767
313,166
71,399
29.5
Bell County
237,974
310,235
72,261
30.4
Galveston County
250,158
291,309
41,151
16.5
Lubbock County
242,628
278,831
36,203
14.9
Jefferson County
252,051
252,273
222
0.1
Webb County
193,117
250,304
57,187
29.6
________ Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L.  Population Counts as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.

16. Twenty Counties in Texas with the Largest Numeric
Population Increase Between 2000 and 2010
Change
County
2000
2010
Numeric
Percent
Harris County
3,400,578
4,092,459
691,881
20.3
Tarrant County
1,446,219
1,809,034
362,815
25.1
Bexar County
1,392,931
1,714,773
321,842
23.1
Collin County
491,675
782,341
290,666
59.1
Fort Bend County
354,452
585,375
230,923
65.1
Denton County
432,976
662,614
229,638
53.0
Travis County
812,280
1,024,266
211,986
26.1
Hidalgo County
569,463
774,769
205,306
36.1
Williamson County
249,967
422,679
172,712
69.1
Montgomery County
293,768
455,746
161,978
55.1
Dallas County
2,218,899
2,368,139
149,240
6.7
El Paso County
679,622
800,647
121,025
17.8
Bell County
237,974
310,235
72,261
30.4
Brazoria County
241,767
313,166
71,399
29.5
Cameron County
335,227
406,220
70,993
21.2
Hays County
97,589
157,107
59,518
61.0
Webb County
193,117
250,304
57,187
29.6
Guadalupe County
89,023
131,533
42,510
47.8
Brazos County
152,415
194,851
42,436
27.8
Galveston County
250,158
291,309
41,151
16.5
________ Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L.  Population Counts as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.

17. Twenty Counties in Texas with the Largest
Percentage Population Increase Between 2000 and 2010
Change
County
2000
2010
Numeric
Percent
Rockwall County
43,080
78,337
35,257
81.8
Williamson County
249,967
422,679
172,712
69.1
Fort Bend County
354,452
585,375
230,923
65.1
Hays County
97,589
157,107
59,518
61.0
Collin County
491,675
782,341
290,666
59.1
Montgomery County
293,768
455,746
161,978
55.1
Denton County
432,976
662,614
229,638
53.0
Guadalupe County
89,023
131,533
42,510
47.8
Kaufman County
71,313
103,350
32,037
44.9
Kendall County
23,743
33,410
9,667
40.7
Comal County
78,021
108,472
30,451
39.0
Hidalgo County
569,463
774,769
205,306
36.1
Chambers County
26,031
35,096
9,065
34.8
Ellis County
111,360
149,610
38,250
34.3
Garza County
4,872
6,461
1,589
32.6
Wilson County
32,408
42,918
10,510
32.4
Waller County
32,663
43,205
10,542
32.3
Parker County
88,495
116,927
28,432
32.1
Bell County
237,974
310,235
72,261
30.4
Webb County
193,117
250,304
57,187
29.6
________ Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L.  Population Counts as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.

18. Population Change in Texas Counties, 1990-2000
Source: Texas State Data Center 18

20. Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the State of Texas, 2000 and 2010
Change
Percent of Population
Race/ Ethnicity*
2000
2010
Numeric
Percent
NH White (Anglo)
10,933,313
11,397,345
464,032
4.2
52.4
45.3
Hispanic
6,669,666
9,460,921
2,791,255
41.8
32.0
37.6
NH Black
2,364,255
2,886,825
522,570
22.1
11.3
11.5
NH American Indian
68,859
80,586
11,727
17.0
0.3
NH Asian
554,445
948,426
393,981
71.1
2.7
3.8
NH Hawaiian/Pac. Isldr.
10,757
17,920
7,163
66.6
0.1
NH Some Other Race
19,958
33,980
14,022
70.3
NH Two or More Races
230,567
319,558
88,991
38.6
1.1
1.3
Total
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6
100.0
________ Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L.  *Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races.  All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (non-Hispanic White[Anglo], non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic American Indian, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, non-Hispanic Some Other Race, non-Hispanic Two or More Races).

27. Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Adult Population (Age 18+) by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010
Change
Percent of Population
Race/Ethnicity*
2000
2010
Numeric
Percent
NH Whites (Anglo)
8,426,166
9,074,684
648,518
7.70
56.31
49.64
Hispanic (All Races)
4,282,901
6,143,144
1,860,243
43.43
28.62
33.61
NH Black
1,631,448
2,076,282
444,834
27.27
10.90
11.36
NH Asian
415,219
716,968
301,749
72.67
2.77
3.92
NH "Other" Races
70,612
95,973
25,361
33.05
0.47
0.53
NH Two or More Races
138,715
172,686
33,971
24.49
0.93
0.94
State of Texas
14,965,061
18,279,737
3,314,676
22.15
100.00
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)

28. Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Child Population (Age <18) by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010
Change
Percent of Population
Race/Ethnicity*
2000
2010
Numeric
Percent
NH Whites (Anglo)
2,507,147
2,322,661
-184,486
-7.36
42.59
33.83
Hispanic (All Races)
2,386,765
3,317,777
931,012
39.01
40.54
48.32
NH Black
732,807
810,543
77,736
10.61
12.45
11.81
NH Asian
139,226
231,458
92,232
66.25
2.37
3.37
NH "Other" Races
28,962
36,513
7,551
33.05
0.49
0.53
NH Two or More Races
91,852
146,872
55,020
59.90
1.56
2.14
State of Texas
5,886,759
6,865,824
979,065
16.63
100.00
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)

29. Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Galveston COG Region, 2000 and 2010
Change
Percent of Population
Race/Ethnicity*
2000
2010
Numeric
Percent
NH Whites (Anglo)
2,348,844
2,429,516
80,672
3.43
48.39
39.91
Hispanic (All Races)
1,389,915
2,142,892
752,977
54.17
28.63
35.20
NH Black
809,631
1,023,683
214,052
26.44
16.68
16.82
NH Asian
227,755
386,015
158,260
69.49
4.69
6.34
NH "Other" Races
19,313
28,329
9,016
46.68
0.40
0.47
NH Two or More Races
58,996
76,698
17,702
30.01
1.22
1.26
Houston-Galveston COG
4,854,454
6,087,133
1,232,679
25.39
100.00
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)

30. Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Adult Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Galveston COG Region, 2000 and 2010
Change
Percent of Population
Race/Ethnicity*
2000
2010
Numeric
Percent
NH Whites (Anglo)
1,787,751
1,920,778
133,027
7.44
51.78
43.71
Hispanic (All Races)
887,588
1,383,264
495,676
55.85
25.71
31.48
NH Black
557,817
734,889
177,072
31.74
16.16
16.72
NH Asian
169,234
293,416
124,182
73.38
4.90
6.68
NH "Other" Races
13,446
19,882
6,436
47.87
0.39
0.45
NH Two or More Races
36,670
41,911
5,241
14.29
1.06
0.95
Houston-Galveston COG
3,452,506
4,394,140
941,634
27.27
100.00
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)

31. Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Child Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Galveston COG Region, 2000 and 2010
Change
Percent of Population
Race/Ethnicity*
2000
2010
Numeric
Percent
NH Whites (Anglo)
561,093
508,738
-52,355
-9.33
40.02
30.05
Hispanic (All Races)
502,327
759,628
257,301
51.22
35.83
44.87
NH Black
251,814
288,794
36,980
14.69
17.96
17.06
NH Asian
58,521
92,599
34,078
58.23
4.17
5.47
NH "Other" Races
5,867
8,447
2,580
43.97
0.42
0.50
NH Two or More Races
22,326
34,787
12,461
55.81
1.59
2.05
Houston-Galveston COG
1,401,948
1,692,993
291,045
20.76
100.00
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)

32. Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA, 2000 and 2010
Change
Percent of Population
Race/Ethnicity*
2000
2010
Numeric
Percent
NH Whites (Anglo)
2,274,829
2,360,472
85,643
3.76
48.24
39.69
Hispanic (All Races)
1,353,477
2,099,412
745,935
55.11
28.70
35.30
NH Black
783,955
998,883
214,928
27.42
16.63
16.80
NH Asian
226,308
384,596
158,288
69.94
4.80
6.47
NH "Other" Races
18,867
27,895
9,028
47.85
0.40
0.47
NH Two or More Races
57,971
75,542
17,571
30.31
1.23
1.27
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA
4,715,407
5,946,800
1,231,393
26.11
100.00
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)

33. Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Adult Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA, 2000 and 2010
Change
Percent of Population
Race/Ethnicity*
2000
2010
Numeric
Percent
NH Whites (Anglo)
1,728,113
1,862,144
134,031
7.76
51.63
43.46
Hispanic (All Races)
863,565
1,353,998
490,433
56.79
25.80
31.60
NH Black
538,356
715,248
176,892
32.86
16.08
16.69
NH Asian
168,231
292,317
124,086
73.76
5.03
6.82
NH "Other" Races
13,114
19,537
6,423
48.98
0.39
0.46
NH Two or More Races
36,035
41,266
5,231
14.52
1.08
0.96
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA
3,347,414
4,284,510
937,096
27.99
100.00
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)

34. Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Child Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA, 2000 and 2010
Change
Percent of Population
Race/Ethnicity*
2000
2010
Numeric
Percent
NH Whites (Anglo)
546,716
498,328
-48,388
-8.85
39.96
29.98
Hispanic (All Races)
489,912
745,414
255,502
52.15
35.81
44.84
NH Black
245,599
283,635
38,036
15.49
17.95
17.06
NH Asian
58,077
92,279
34,202
58.89
4.25
5.55
NH "Other" Races
5,753
8,358
2,605
45.28
0.42
0.50
NH Two or More Races
21,936
34,276
12,340
56.25
1.60
2.06
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA
1,367,993
1,662,290
294,297
21.51
100.00
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)

35. Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the City of Houston, 2000 and 2010
Change
Percent of Population
Race/Ethnicity*
2000
2010
Numeric
Percent
NH Whites (Anglo)
601,851
537,901
-63,950
-10.63
30.81
25.62
Hispanic (All Races)
730,865
919,668
188,803
25.83
37.41
43.81
NH Black
487,851
485,956
-1,895
-0.39
24.97
23.15
NH Asian
102,706
124,859
22,153
21.57
5.26
5.95
NH "Other" Races
6,528
8,367
1,839
28.17
0.00
0.40
NH Two or More Races
23,830
22,700
-1,130
-4.74
1.22
1.08
City Houston
1,953,631
2,099,451
145,820
7.46
100.00
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)

36. Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Adult Population by Race/Ethnicity for the City of Houston, 2000 and 2010
Change
Percent of Population
Race/Ethnicity*
2000
2010
Numeric
Percent
NH Whites (Anglo)
499,473
458,859
-40,614
-8.13
35.25
29.48
Hispanic (All Races)
476,451
613,353
136,902
28.73
33.62
39.41
NH Black
340,032
361,356
21,324
6.27
24.00
23.22
NH Asian
80,191
102,177
21,986
27.42
5.66
6.56
NH "Other" Races
4,689
6,141
1,452
28.17
0.33
0.39
NH Two or More Races
16,137
14,541
-1,596
-9.89
1.14
0.93
Houston
1,416,973
1,556,427
139,454
9.84
100.00
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)

37. Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Child Population by Race/Ethnicity for the City of Houston, 2000 and 2010
Change
Percent of Population
Race/Ethnicity*
2000
2010
Numeric
Percent
NH Whites (Anglo)
102,378
79,042
-23,336
-22.79
19.08
14.56
Hispanic (All Races)
254,414
306,315
51,901
20.40
47.41
56.41
NH Black
147,819
124,600
-23,219
-15.71
27.54
22.95
NH Asian
22,515
22,682
167
0.74
4.20
4.18
NH "Other" Races
1,839
2,226
387
28.17
0.34
0.41
NH Two or More Races
7,693
8,159
466
6.06
1.43
1.50
Houston
536,658
543,024
6,366
1.19
100.00
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)

38. Median Age in the United States and Texas, 1900-2007
In addition to population change, distribution, diversification, we are experience growth in the population in older ages
“Aging of the population”
Note decline in average age during 1960s and 1970s
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 38

39. Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000
Combination of ethnic diversity and aging will be felt in the next few decades
In about 2003, Texas became a non-majority state and by 2035, Texas is predicted to become Hispanic majority state
What is seen here is to the right – the Texas of old and to the left – the Texas of the future
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 39

40. Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2040*
By 2040, all but the oldest ages will be majority Hispanic
What is happening in Texas will occur for the U.S. as a whole
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 40

41. Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000
Non-anglo populations primarily in younger ages
Largest proportion of anglos in oldest ages
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 41

42. Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2050
By 2040, all but oldest ages will be majority non-Anglo
In fact, Half of the population will be non-Anglo by 2042 and ½ of Children will be non-Anglo by 2023!
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 42

43. POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

44. Median Household Income* Median Household Income
Total and Percent of the Texas Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, 1999 and 2009
1999
2009
Population
in Poverty %
Median Household Income*
Median Household Income
Anglo
826,459
7.8
$60,839
1,010,170
9.0
$59,836
Hispanic
1,658,434
25.4
$38,536
2,364,407
26.4
$35,628
Black
525,082
23.4
$37,803
630,479
23.1
$35,438
Asian
65,048
11.9
$64,576
105,186
12.1
$63,692
Other
42,586
13.9 NA
40,000
Total
3,117,609
15.4
$51,506
4,150,242
17.2
$50,043
*In 2009 Dollars
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and American Community Survey, 2009 44 44

45. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Educational Attainment in in Texas for Persons 25+ Years of Age By Race/Ethnicity _____________________________________
Percent
Attainment rates for black and hispanic far below that of Asians and Anglos
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

46. Educational Attainment by Ethnicity in Texas, 2008
State of Texas
Number
Percent
Educational Attainment
Anglo
Hispanic
Total Population
Less than high school diploma
677,707
2,044,771
3,082,598
8.5
42.8
20.4
H.S. graduate, GED, or alternative
2,016,649
1,205,247
3,848,003
25.3
25.2
25.4
Some college or associate's degree
2,609,018
1,011,674
4,362,145
32.8
21.2
28.8
Bachelor's degree or higher
2,656,310
520,106
3,832,100
33.4
10.9
Population Age 25 and Over
7,959,684
4,781,798
15,124,846
100.0
Source: American Community Survey, 2008
In Texas, only 11% of those with Hispanics have a BA or higher
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

47. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Average (Mean) SAT Scores for College Bound Seniors in the United States in 2001 by Selected Characteristics
Story about Murdock
Income bias in tests
Because race/ethnicity correlated with lower income due to various historical and discriminatory reasons, then we excluding those who most need education
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

48. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
PROJECTIONS
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

49. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

50. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Numeric Change in the Projected U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions)
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

51. Projected Change in the U. S
Projected Change in the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050

52. Projected Age Distribution of the U.S. Population: 2000 to 2050
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

53. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2000
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

54. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Projected Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2050
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

55. Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

56. Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

57. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Texas Counties with 50 Percent or More of Their Total Population That is Anglo in 2000 and Projected for 2040 Under Alternative Projection Scenarios
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

58. Percent of Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected Percent of Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2040 for Texas Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration

59. Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2000
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

60. Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2040*
* Assuming rates of migration equal to
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

61. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
TEXAS EDUCATION
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

62. Enrollment and Change in Enrollment of Economically Disadvantaged and All Students by Ethnicity in Texas Public Schools, and School Years
Enrollment
10-Year Change
Race/Ethnic Category
Numeric
Percent
Economically Disadvantaged
White
368,387
402,057
33,670
9.1
African American
364,434
460,703
96,269
26.4
Other
36,589
57,852
21,263
58.1
Hispanic
1,146,071
1,765,647
619,576
54.1
Total
1,915,481
2,686,259
770,778
40.2
1,746,896
1,616,115
-130,781
-7.5
568,757
671,871
103,114
18.1
112,068
186,487
74,419
66.4
1,526,713
2,275,098
748,385
49.0
3,954,434
4,749,571
795,137
20.1
Source: Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools,
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 62 62

63. Asian/Pacific Islander (%)
Total Public School Students by Race/Ethnicity in the 10 Largest* School Districts in Texas, and
District/County/School Year
White (%)
African American (%)
Hispanic (%)
Asian/Pacific Islander (%)
Native American (%)
Total Enrollment
Houston ISD (Harris)
10.0
32.1
54.9
2.9 .1
208,462
8.0
28.4
60.3
3.2
198,769
Dallas ISD (Dallas)
7.8
35.9
54.5
1.4 .4
161,548
4.8
28.7
65.3
1.0 .2
157,605
Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (Harris)
58.5
23.4
7.9
63,497
38.8
15.2
37.1
8.6 .3
96,546
Northside ISD (Bexar)
36.7
6.6
54.3
2.2
63,739
25.4
63.2
3.3
85,544
Austin ISD (Travis)
33.7
15.7
47.8
2.5
77,816
26.4
12.1
58.0
82,181
Fort Worth ISD ( Tarrant)
21.4
30.9
45.4
2.1
79,661
14.3
25.6
58.2
1.6
78,732
Fort Bend ISD (Fort Bend)
37.8
28.0
18.1
16.0
53,999
24.4
31.8
23.0
20.6
67,780
Arlington ISD (Tarrant)
47.3
21.3
24.0
6.8 .6
58,866
31.4
23.9
37.2
7.1
62,560
North East ISD (Bexar)
49.1
9.4
50,875
39.2
47.4
3.7
61,910
El Paso ISD (El Paso)
78.5
1.2
62,325
12.2
81.3
61,839
*Largest enrollment based on school year
Source: Data compiled by the Texas State Data Center from Texas Education Agency, Academic Excellence Indicator System (AEIS) District Profiles

64. Texas Higher Education Enrollment in Public Universities, Public 2-year Colleges and Health-related Institutions by Race/Ethnicity, 2000 and 2008
Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity
Public
Univ
2-year Colleges
Health-related
Institutions
2000 Enrollment
White (%)
58.4
52.8
61.3
African American (%)
9.8
11.0
4.9
Hispanic (%)
19.6
28.9
12.6
Asian (%)
5.7
3.9
14.6
American Indian (%) .5
International (%)
5.3
2.4
4.8
Unknown (%) .7
1.3
Total 2000 Enrollment
414,626
447,998
13,806
2008 Enrollment
50.4
45.2
51.3
11.6
11.8
6.6
24.3
34.1
13.8
4.2
14.5 .6
2.5
9.7 .9
1.7
3.5
Total 2008 Enrollment
509,136
617,507
20,421
Source: Data compiled by the Texas State Data Center using data from the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (THECB)

65. Public Elementary and Secondary Public Community College, and Public University Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to (1.0 Scenario)

66. Percent of Public Elementary and Secondary, Public Community College and Public University Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to (1.0 Scenario)

67. Future Demands for Specific Programs

68. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
TEXAS LABOR FORCE
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 68 68

69. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Projections of Civilian Labor Force in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios, 2000 to 2040
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

70. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Percent Change in Projected Civilian Labor Force in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios,
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

71. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Projections of the Percent of Civilian Labor Force in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios,
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

72. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Number and percent of Net Change in the Civilian Labor Force in Texas Due to Each Race/Ethnicity Group, Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

73. Average Household Income in Texas, 2000-2040* (in 2000 Dollars)

74. Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by
Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by Family Type in Texas, 2000 and 2040

75. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040 tc
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

76. Average Annual Household Income in Texas and the United States by Educational Attainment of Householder in 2000*

77. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040* Assuming Trends in Educational Attainment Rates
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

78. Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*
Billions
$1,200
$938
$1,000
$765
$752
$800
$621
$629
$528
$600
$400
$251
$210
$200 $0
2000
2040 Assuming
2040 Assuming
2040 Assuming
Base Values
2000 Attainment
Trends
Anglo Trends
Differentials
in Differentials
Apply to all Groups
Aggregate Income
Consumer Expenditures
*Source: Texas State Data Center. Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

79. The mark of a truly educated man is to be moved deeply by statistics.
George Bernard Shaw

80. Website: http://hobbycenter.rice.edu
Steve Murdock
Phone:
Website: