Current Market Situation For Grains and Cattle! Rodney Jones OSU NW Area Extension Economist
Start With Grains We now have a drought that matters!!! 55 to 60% of U.S. Ag Land under drought conditions
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
CBT Corn, Dec. ‘2012
Corn Relevant Numbers Current Projections Average Billion Bushels U.S. Ending Stocks World Ending Stocks
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Feedgrain Considerations World ending stocks projections about average, U.S. well below average Yields and harvested acres keep getting trimmed In short crop years prices peak early Demand may waiver at high prices
CBT Soybeans, Nov. ‘2012
U.S. Soybean Situation (Billion Bushels) ProductionConsumption Ending Stocks U. S. Price Year $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ YR Avg $9.34
ProductionConsumption Ending Stocks Year World Soybean Situation (Billion Bushels) YR Avg
Soybean Relevant Numbers Current Projections Average Billion Bushels U.S. Ending Stocks World Ending Stocks
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Soybean Considerations U.S. Ending stocks projected to be well below average World ending stocks projected to be slightly below average Weather influence comes later than for corn Yields projections continue to fall South America will plant a lot of beans
KCBT Wheat, Dec ‘012
ProductionConsumption Ending Stocks U. S. Price Year (Billion Bushels) U.S. Wheat Situation $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ YR Avg $5.54
World Wheat Situation (Billion Bushels) ProductionConsumption Ending Stocks Year YR Avg
Wheat Relevant Numbers U.S. Ending Stocks World Ending Stocks Current ProjectionsAverage Billion Bushels
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Wheat Considerations Wheat fundamentals cannot support current prices on own With that said, the supply situation is tightening relative to last few years World economic concerns may be the biggest downside risk (remember 2008 – 2009) Very strong incentive to pull acres out of wheat and go to canola in areas where that is an option
Economic Output % Change (2012, 2013 projected), IMF
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS +1.4 %
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Total Meat Supplies Down in Beef↓0.4%↓2.6% Pork↑1.5%↑2.4% Broilers↑1.1% 0.0% Total Meat↑0.9% 0.0%
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Data Source: KSU Focus on Feedlots, Compiled by LMIC
Steer Price, Total Value and Value of Gain Jun 2012, Oklahoma 7-Market Ave. Weight (lbs) Average Price ($/cwt.) Total Value ($/head) Value of Gain 425 lb. Beg. Weight ($/lb.) Value of Gain 525 lb. Beg. Weight ($/lb.) Value of Gain 625 lb. Beg. Weight ($/lb.) Value of forage is high for cow-calf and a wide range of stocker production
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
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