1. 2019 Cattle Market Update Derrell S. Peel
Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist
Oklahoma State University

3. Ronan, Montana
February, 2019

4. 2019 Cattle and Beef Market Issues
Cattle inventories peaking
Continued but slow growth in beef production
Continued strong beef demand is key
Domestic and international
Biggest threats are external
Slowing economic growth in U.S. and global
Trade Issues

5. 2019 Cattle and Beef Market Issues cont.
Trade Issues
USMCA
U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs
CP-TPP (continues without U.S.)
Japan
China
E.U./Brexit ??

6. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

7. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

8. Price-Weight Relationship Medium/Large No. 1 Steers, Oklahoma

10. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

11. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

12. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

13. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

14. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

18. Hay Stocks, December 1 YOY Change
OK %
TX %
KS %
AR %
MO %
5-state total %
U.S %

19. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

20. Beef Cow Inventory by Cycle U.S., January 1
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

21. U.S. Cattle Inventory January 1
2017
2018
2019*
% Change
1000 Head
All Cattle and Calves
+0.8
Beef Cows
+0.5
Dairy Cows
9346.0
9399.6
9375.0
-0.3
Beef Replacements
6368.2
6131.2
5780.0
-5.7
Dairy Replacements
4754.0
4781.3
4760.0
-0.4
Feeder Supply
+3.1
Cattle on Feed
+1.9
2016
Calf Crop
+1.7
*Forecasts by Derrell Peel

22. Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

23. Beef Replacement Heifers as % of Beef Cows, January 1

24. Analysis by Derrell Peel
Average:
Heifer % = 17.9
Culling % = 9.53
Analysis by Derrell Peel
Data Source: USDA-NASS

25. Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

26. Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

27. Monthly Placements and Cattle on Feed 12 Month Moving Ave.

28. Cattle Slaughter Federally Inspected, 1000 Head
2016
2017
% Change 2016 to 2017
2018 YTD
% Change
Steers
16495
16771
+1.7
-0.7
Heifers
7698
8611
+11.9
+6.4
Dairy Cows
2886
2988
+3.6
+5.2
Beef Cows
2543
2784
+9.5
+8.7
Bulls
494
550
+11.4
-0.5
Total
30115
31771
+5.3
+2.6
Latest data: December 31, 2018

29. Cattle Slaughter Federally Inspected, 1000 Head
2017
2018
% Change 2017 to 2018
2019 YTD
% Change
Steers
16771
16645
-0.7
-6.3
Heifers
8611
9163
+6.4
+5.0
Dairy Cows
2988
3143
+5.2
+4.1
Beef Cows
2784
3025
+8.7
-2.0
Bulls
550
547
-0.5
-2.5
Total
31771
32522
+2.6
-1.6
Latest data: January 19, 2018

30. Steer to Heifer Slaughter Ratio 12 month MA
September, 2018

31. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

32. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

33. Dressed Weights 12 month Moving Average, Federally Inspected

34. 2018/2019 Meat Production and Consumption
Consum. Change
Consum.
Per Capita
Change
2017
2018
2019
2018-
Million lbs. %
Million
lbs.
Retail Lbs.
Beef
26187
26867
+2.6
27298
+1.6
+0.0
57.0
+0.2
Pork
25584
26323
+2.9
26966
+2.4
+1.2
50.8
Broilers
41217
42266
+2.5
42540
+0.6
+1.8
91.9
-0.5
Total
99739
102171
103072
+0.9
+1.0
217.8
-0.4
2018 projected and 2019 forecast
LMIC, February 6, 2019

35. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

36. Data Source: USDA-ERS
January, 2019

37. January, 2019 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
January, 2019

38. Data Source: USDA-NASS and USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

40. Data Source: USDA-FAS, Oct 2018
Livestock Marketing Information Center

41. Data Source: USDA-FAS, Oct 2018

42. Data Source: USDA-FAS

43. China: Beef Imports

45. U.S. Beef Exports 2016 (1000 lbs.) % Change 2015 to 2016 2017
% of Total Exports
YTD %
Of 2017
Japan
655426
+21.5
826204
+26.1
28.9
+6.8
Mexico
394952
+8.9
419506
+6.2
14.7
+7.3
Hong Kong
293813
-7.0
335719
+14.3
11.7
-5.9
Canada
311905
-4.8
+1.2
10.8
-1.6
S. Korea
459158
+44.0
472768
+3.0
16.5
+36.6
Total
+12.7
+12.0
+11.3
YTD: Jan-Nov

46. 2018 U.S. Beef Exports Share of Total, January-November

47. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

48. U.S. Beef Imports 2016 (1000 lbs.) % Change 2015 to 2016 2017
% of Total Imports
2018 YTD
% of 2017
Australia
767216
-39.0
695253
-9.4
+23.2
-1.6
Canada
717798
+14.2
741070
+3.2
+24.8
+6.0
New Zealand
612549
-7.4
557529
-9.1
+18.6
+4.3
Mexico
493446
+25.9
573520
+16.2
+19.2
-12.9
Brazil
152703
+2.1
138430
-9.3
+4.6
+2.6
Total
-10.6
-0.7
+0.1
YTD: Jan-Nov

49. 2018 U.S. Beef Imports Share of total, January-November

50. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

51. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

52. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

53. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

54. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

55. 2019-2020 Cattle Price Forecasts
Feeder Steer Price (Southern Plains)
Fed Steer
5-600 lb.
($/cwt.)
% chg from
Last Year
7-800 lb.
5-mkt avg.
($/cwt)
2017
Annual
166.00
0.0
148.17
+2.1
121.52
+0.5
2018
171.39
+3.2
150.00
+1.2
117.12
-3.6
2019 I
-6.1
-3.5
-1.7 II
+1.7
+0.7
+2.0
III
+3.3
-5.1
-0.3 IV
-0.5
+1.5
-2.0
+0.3
2020
+2.3
+2.4
+1.3
LMIC, February 6, 2019

56. Send Email to derrell.peel@okstate.edu
The Weekly Newsletter From OSU Animal Science and Agricultural Economics
Send to