1. Crop & Livestock Marketing & Risk Management
30th Annual Tri-State Agricultural Lenders Seminar
Dubuque, Iowa
Oct. 25, 2016
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

3. 9/27/16 Projections (vs 9/2/16) 2016: $15 (vs $78) 2017: $22 (vs $86)
Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC

4. Cattle on Feed―9/23 report
(1,000+ head capacity feedlots; & < 1,000 in Iowa)
Sep 1 On Feed: +1.5% yr/yr
Vs. +1.2% pre-report est. (+0.3%, +1.9%)
IA: -6.5% vs last year [1,000+ Head]
IA: -3.9% vs last year [<1,000 Head]
Aug Placements: +15.1%
Vs % pre-report est. (+8.6%, 18.0%)
IA: +1.4% vs last year [1,000+ Head]
IA: -47.8% vs last year [<1,000 Head]
Aug Marketings: +17.6%
Vs % pre-report est. (+12.3%, +18.1%)
IA: +16.9% vs last year [1,000+ Head]
IA: -30.4% vs last year [<1,000 Head]
Data Source: USDA/NASS

5. Historical and Projected Iowa Finishing Yearling Steer Returns (as of 10/17/16)(
Place
Closeout
Net
Fed
Feeder
Breakeven
Mo-Yr
Return*
FCOG**
Price
Fed Price
Feeder Price
Apr-16
Sep-16
73.16
104.85
151.55
41.17
118.38
128.09
May-16
Oct-16
72.01
94.99
149.33
20.90
116.61
111.85
Jun-16
Nov-16
71.20
97.64
151.47
24.23
117.51
117.03
Jul-16
Dec-16
70.25
97.81
144.75
33.80
113.23
118.02
Aug-16
Jan-17
71.24
100.94
151.65
31.79
117.63
122.73
Feb-17
72.36
100.22
140.94
44.70
111.93
120.65
Mar-17
-31.38
73.17
101.73
126.86
67.46
104.14
122.67
Apr-17
26.25
73.79
102.20
119.52
78.57
100.18
123.02
May-17
15.12
74.20
98.61
114.49
76.95
97.44
116.51
2013
-59.43
112.76
126.16
143.91
101.95
130.73
135.99
2014
197.24
85.05
154.15
178.52
120.91
138.97
204.82
2015
79.08
147.87
228.33
38.15
165.19
198.32
2016
73.87
117.54
168.64
47.86
128.55
149.57
2017
-70.88
75.22
95.85
120.42
62.33
101.30
110.97
* Net return is $/head and all other values are $/cwt. ** FCOG = Feeding cost of gain.

6. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

7. Data Source: CME Group

8. Data Source: USDA/AMS

9. USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report – United States
September 30, 2016
2016 as %
Pre-Report
Actual -
2015
2016
of 2015
Range
Estimate
Inventories on Sep 1 *
All hogs and pigs
69,185
70,851
102.4
101.1
1.3
Kept for breeding
5,986
6,016
100.5
100.6
-0.1
Market
63,200
64,835
102.6
1.5
Under 50 pounds
20,741
21,090
101.7
99.9
1.8
pounds
18,496
18,851
101.9
100.8
1.1
pounds
12,855
13,325
103.7
102.3
1.4
180 pounds and over
11,108
11,568
104.1
103.1
1.0
Farrowing **
Jun – Aug sows farrowed
3,017
3,024
100.2
98.5
1.7
Sep – Nov intentions
2,929
2,928
100.0
99.6
0.4
Dec – Feb intentions
2,927
2,925
-0.3
Jun – Aug Pig Crop *
31,343
31,983
102.0
99.7
2.3
Jun – Aug Pigs per Litter
10.39
10.58
101.8
101.3
0.5
* 1,000 head
** 1,000 litters
Data Source: USDA/NASS. Urner Barry pre-report estimates

10. +3.4% (since mid-July) Last 4 weeks +8.3% +8.1% +5.6% -0.7%
Data Source: USDA/NASS

11. Data Source: USDA/AMS

12. Historical and Projected Iowa Wean to Finish Returns (as of 10/17/16)(
SEW
Breakeven
Net LH
(50% 5 mo)
Month
Year
Return*
FCOG**
Price
Price*
2013
4.77
54.86
90.41
36.78
56.71
88.06
41.55
2014
39.48
46.53
105.89
54.90
61.83
86.39
94.38
2015
-14.32
40.48
68.61
48.83
34.93
75.69
34.51
Jan-Mar
2016
-5.76
37.84
60.41
30.46
35.61
63.25
24.70
Apr-Jun
9.31
38.60
73.08
39.09
42.21
68.48
48.40
Jul-Sep
-19.23
38.97
63.62
47.51
31.51
73.11
28.28
Oct-Dec
2016f
-46.72
37.75
42.45
35.28
19.65
65.52
-11.44
-15.60
38.29
59.89
38.08
32.24
67.59
22.49
2017f
-31.39
38.44
47.71
28.82
26.27
63.20
-2.57
-4.39
39.64
61.76
27.18
37.94
63.93
22.79
-7.06
40.97
65.72
34.44
38.24
69.21
27.39
-21.21
40.55
57.11
32.23
32.33
67.58
11.02
-16.01
39.90
58.08
30.67
33.70
65.98
14.66
* Net return and SEW price is $/head and all other values are $/carcass cwt.
** FCOG = Feeding cost of gain.

13. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
48.0
51.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,926
4,269
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
197
Imports 41 72 33 24 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,140
4,496
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,873
1,886
1,950
Seed & Residual
105
107
146
121
126
Exports
1,317
1,638
1,842
1,936
2,025
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,862
3,943
4,101
Ending Stocks
395
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.05
Source: USDA-WAOB, modified 13 13

14. Soy Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

15. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 15 15

16. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 16 16

17. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Change in Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Current Soybean Futures
9.37
9.35
Source: CME Group, 10/20/2016

20. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.4
173.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,601
15,057
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
1,738
Imports
160 36 32 67 50
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,400
16,845
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,324
5,192
5,650
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,200
5,206
5,275
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,360
1,367
1,375
Exports
730
1,920
1,864
1,898
2,225
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,662
14,525
Ending Stocks
2,320
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.25
Source: USDA-WAOB, modified 20 20

21. Corn Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

22. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 22 22

23. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

24. Change in Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

25. Corn Grind for Ethanol

26. Current Corn Futures
3.67
3.29
Source: CME Group, 10/20/2016

27. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Trend Yields

28. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

29. 2017/18 Crop Margins

30. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: