1. Crop Outlook Beginning Farmer Network Meeting Ames, Iowa Oct. 4, 2010
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2007 2008 2009 2010 Area Planted (mil. acres)
93.5
86.0
86.5
87.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
150.7
153.9
164.7
162.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,038
12,092
13,110
13,160
Beg. Stocks
1,304
1,624
1,673
1,386
Imports 20 14 8 10
Total Supply
14,362
13,729
14,791
14,556
Feed & Residual
5,913
5,182
5,525
5,250
Ethanol
3,049
3,709
4,535
4,700
Food, Seed, & Other
1,338
1,316
1,365
1,390
Exports
2,437
1,849
1,980
2,100
Total Use
12,737
12,056
13,405
13,440
Ending Stocks
1,116
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.20
4.06
3.55
4.40
1,708
1,708
Source: USDA 2 2

4. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2007
2008
2009
2010
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
64.7
75.7
77.5
78.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
41.7
39.7
44.0
44.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,677
2,967
3,359
3,483
Beg. Stocks
574
205
138
150
Imports 10 13 15
Total Supply
3,261
3,185
3,512
3,643
Crush
1,803
1,662
1,750
1,650
Seed & Residual 93
106
118
158
Exports
1,159
1,279
1,495
1,485
Total Use
3,056
3,047
3,363
3,293
Ending Stocks
350
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
10.10
9.97
9.60
9.90
Source: USDA 4 4

5. Source: USDA-NASS 5 5

6. U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
Production
(mil. lb.)
18,745
19,535
18,810
Beg. Stocks
2,485
2,861
3,206
Imports 90
110
115
Total Supply
21,319
22,506
22,131
Domestic
16,265
15,950
17,400
Methyl Ester
2,013
1,700
2,900
Exports
2,193
3,350
2,100
Total Use
18,459
19,300
19,500
Ending Stocks
2,631
Season-Average Price
(¢/lb.)
32.16
35.75
39.50
Source: USDA 6 6

7. U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
Production
(thou. short tons)
39,102
41,525
39,235
Beg. Stocks
294
235
300
Imports 88
140
165
Total Supply
39,484
41,900
39,700
Domestic
30,752
30,200
30,300
Exports
8,497
11,400
9,100
Total Use
39,249
41,600
39,400
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/short ton)
331.17
310.00
290.00
Source: USDA 7 7

8. World Corn Production
Source: USDA 8 8

9. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA 9 9

10. La Niña Winter 10 10

11. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

12. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

13. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA, FAS

14. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA, FAS

15. Historical Export Levels
Week 4 of marketing year
Source: USDA, FAS

16. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
Crop
Year
Billion Bushels
2009
4.11
2010
4.43
2011
4.64
2012
4.86 16 16

17. Ethanol Blending Advantage

18. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
Right now, futures are in $ range
for 2010 and 2011 corn

19. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Futures are north of $10 for 2010 and 2011 beans

20. This Year

21. Thoughts for 2010 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
Long-term oil price remain in the $90 range
Supply/demand concerns
Yield and production effects of Midwestern moisture
Stocks: 2009 vs crop
South America: La Niña impacts
Biofuels: E10, E12, or E15; Do the tax credits get extended/renewed?
Will demand be able to keep pace with supply?
2010/11: USDA: Corn $4.40, Soy $9.90
Futures: Corn $4.50, Soy $10.22
2011/12: Futures: Corn $4.43, Soy $10.03

22. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: