1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Outlook
Dec. 15, 2017
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.4
91.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
171.0
168.4
174.6
175.4
173.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,578
14,520
Beg. Stocks
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,295
2,437
Imports 32 67 57 50
Total Supply
15,479
15,401
16,942
16,922
17,007
Feed & Residual
5,280
5,120
5,463
5,575
5,550
Ethanol
5,200
5,224
5,439
5,525
Food, Seed, & Other
1,401
1,422
1,452
1,460
1,475
Exports
1,867
1,898
2,293
1,925
1,900
Total Use
13,748
13,664
14,647
14,485
14,450
Ending Stocks
2,557
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.70
3.61
3.36
3.20
3.30
Source: USDA 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
83.3
82.7
83.4
90.2
91.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
47.5
48.0
52.0
49.5
48.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,927
3,926
4,296
4,425
4,360
Beg. Stocks 92
191
197
301
445
Imports 33 24 22 25
Total Supply
4,052
4,140
4,515
4,752
4,830
Crush
1,873
1,886
1,899
1,940
1,970
Seed & Residual
146
122
141
140
Exports
1,842
1,936
2,174
2,225
2,325
Total Use
3,862
3,944
4,214
4,306
4,435
Ending Stocks
396
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
10.10
8.95
9.47
9.30
9.40
Source: USDA 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS 4 4

5. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS 5 5

7. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Projections for 3/3/17 6/7/17 10/1/17 11/13/17 2017 -$29 $3 $19 $69
2018
-$21
-$24
-$3 $4
Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

9. Source: USDA/AMS

10. Source: USDA/AMS

11. Backgrounding and Stocker Example
December 15th 550 Pound Calves in $171.18/cwt
Sale Weight
Sale Date
Sell Price, $/cwt
ADG
DOF
VOG, $/cwt
VOG, $/head
650
1/24/18
$163.33
2.50 41
$120.17
750
3/5/18
$153.94 81
$106.55
$213.10
850
4/14/18
$143.87
121
$93.80
$281.41
Source: USDA/AMS, CME Group

12. Cattle on Feed―11/17 report
(1,000+ head capacity feedlots & <1,000 in Iowa)
Nov 1 On Feed: +6.3% yr/yr
Vs. +5.7% pre-report est. (+4.8%, +7.0%)
IA: +15.0% vs last year [1,000+ Head]
IA: -6.9% vs last year [<1,000 Head]
Oct Placements: +10.2% yr/yr
Vs. +7.1% pre-report est. (+3.6%, +13.1%)
IA: +10.1% vs last year [1,000+ Head]
IA: 16.5% vs last year [<1,000 Head]
Oct Marketings: +5.6% yr/yr
Vs. +5.4% pre-report est. (+5.0%, +5.8%)
IA: +3.1% vs last year [1,000+ Head]
IA: +29.6% vs last year [<1,000 Head]
Data Source: USDA/NASS

13. Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

14. Data Source: USDA/AMS

15. 2014 = +$ [+$41 to +$269]
2015 = -$ [-$530 to +$43]
2016 = -$ [-$359 to +$113]
2017f = +$ [-$74 to +$415]
2018f = -$ [-$135 to +$49]

16. Source: USDA/AMS

17. U.S. Beef Exports, Jan-Sep 2017
(Carcass Weight Basis)
Sep-17/Aug-17
Sep-17/Sep-16
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Share
Japan
-13%
40%
142,497
29%
31%
Mexico
-11% 8%
20,185 7%
15%
Canada
-5%
8,634 4%
11%
South Korea 3%
26,340
16%
Hong Kong
-2%
-8%
16,641 9%
10%
China (Taiwan) 2% 5%
7,904
Vietnam
-24%
17%
10,779
98% 1%
Netherlands
2,186
Philippines
35%
21%
5,267
Chile
-47%
3,868
19%
Bahamas
-48%
-35%
-817 0%
United Arab Emirates
26%
18%
-681
-6%
Dominican Republic
-41%
1,048
China (Mainland)
83%
3,462
Other Countries
15,396
14% 6%
Total
262,710
WASDE U.S.: 2016: 2,556 mil lbs : 2,855 (+12%) : 2,970 (+4%)
Source: USDA/ERS

18. Source: CME Group

19. Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

20. 2013 = +$ [-$25.60 to +$24.57]
2014 = +$ [+$13.15 to +$107.25]
2015 = +$ [-$18.40 to +$26.25]
2016 = -$ [-$35.52 to +$32.92]
2017f = +$ [-$12.68 to +$47.62]
2018f = +$ [-$10.03 to +$33.79]

21. 2013 = +$ [-$14.80 to +$22.07]
2014 = +$ [+$1.62 to +$84.64]
2015 = -$ [-$30.32 to +$4.70]
2016 = -$ [-$45.69 to +$17.05]
2017f = +$ [-$30.32 to +$24.89]
2018f = +$ [-$18.40 to +$21.27]

22. Source: USDA/AMS. * Steve Meyer, EMI.

23. Source: Steve Meyer. Published in National Hog Farmer Magazine, July 27, 2017.

24. 2000 to 2017 = +27% Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

25. Source: USDA/AMS

26. U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-Sep 2017
(Carcass Wt Basis)
Sep-17/Aug-17
Sep-17/Sep-16
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Share
Japan
-8%
-3%
3,535 0%
22%
Mexico
-2% 1%
201,425
18%
32%
Canada
14%
-1,280
10%
South Korea
16%
38%
83,831
30% 9%
China (Mainland)
-31%
-117,964
-29% 7%
Hong Kong
31%
29%
-13,402
-12% 2%
Australia
-25%
4,223 3% 4%
Philippines
43%
14,278
26%
China (Taiwan)
-18%
55%
8,800
64%
Colombia
28%
90%
57,330
84%
Honduras
-17%
2,194
Dominican Republic
-19%
17,228
Guatemala
44%
1,870
Chile
-27%
-20%
26,520
97%
Other Countries 8%
16,773
13%
Total
305,360
WASDE U.S.: 2016: 5,239 mil lbs : 5,588 (+7%) : 5,900 (+6%)
Source: USDA/ERS

27. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

28. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

29. Ethanol Production
Sources: EIA, my projection for 2017

30. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

31. Current Corn Futures
3.83
3.45
Source: CME Group, 12/14/2017

32. Current Soybean Futures
9.76
9.54
Source: CME Group, 12/14/2017

33. Margins @ Actual Yields and Basis

34. Margins w/ 2017 Costs and Basis

35. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: