1. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ag Outlook US Bank Ag Conference Ashland, Nebraska Oct. 7, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use 20112012201320142015 Area Planted(mil. acres)91.997.395.490.688.9 Yield(bu./acre)147.2123.1158.1171.0167.5 Production(mil. bu.)12,36010,75513,82914,21613,585 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,1289898211,2321,731 Imports(mil. bu.)291603630 Total Supply(mil. bu.)13,51711,90414,68615,47815,346 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)4,5574,3155,0345,3025,275 Ethanol(mil. bu.)5,0004,6415,1345,2055,250 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,4281,3971,3691,3651,380 Exports(mil. bu.)1,5437301,9171,8751,850 Total Use(mil. bu.)12,52811,08313,45413,74713,755 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)9898211,2321,7311,591 Season-Average Price($/bu.)6.226.894.463.703.75 Source: USDA-WAOB

3. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 20112012201320142015 Area Planted(mil. acres)75.077.276.883.384.3 Yield(bu./acre)41.940.044.047.547.1 Production(mil. bu.)3,0943,0423,3583,9273,935 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)21516914192191 Imports(mil. bu.)1641723330 Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,3253,2523,5704,0524,156 Crush(mil. bu.)1,7031,6891,7341,870 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.)8810597156130 Exports(mil. bu.)1,3651,3171,6471,8351,725 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,1553,1113,4783,8613,725 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)16914192191431 Season-Average Price($/bu.)12.5014.4013.0010.109.15 Source: USDA-WAOB

4. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

5. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Yield Estimate Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre

6. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

7. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

8. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

9. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

10. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

11. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

12. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2015/16 Crop Margins

13. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2016/17 Crop Margins

14. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

15. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond  Supply/demand concerns  Rain made grain, but we’re still debating how much  Exports weaken as dollar strengthens and China slows  Negative margins for 2015-2016 crops 2014/15 USDA 2015/16 USDA 2015/16 Futures (10/2/15) 2016/17 Futures (10/2/15) Corn$3.70$3.75$3.68$3.88 Soybeans$10.10$9.15$8.32$8.41

16. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics  Crops/Feedstuffs – BULLISH for livestock sector  Hog supply – or lack of supply issues in U.S. hog herd  Beef herd rebuilding is under way and accelerating – limiting current supplies BUT currently the fed cattle market purge is on  HPAI in U.S. poultry – HUGE hit on layers/eggs, only meat impact was turkey, chicken was okay---but represents the largest risk  U.S. consumer demand has been GREAT – will it hold?  The U.S. dollar Key factors for 2015 and beyond

17. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

18. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Data Source: USDA/NASS, tabulations by Lee Schulz

19. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

20. ChangeAverage ChangeCommercialChange CommercialfromDressedfromBeeffrom YearSlaughterYear AgoWeightYear AgoProductionYear Ago Quarter(1,000 hd)(%)(lbs)(%)(mil lbs)(%) 2015 I 6,967-5.5 8132.25,664-3.5 II 7,227-7.8 8102.75,855-5.3 III 7,297-4.4 8312.66,064-1.9 IV 7,3580.4 8331.36,1281.8 Year 28,849-4.4 8222.223,711-2.2 2016 I 7,1442.5 8221.25,8753.7 II 7,4112.5 8130.46,0262.9 III 7,6044.2 8350.56,3534.8 IV 7,5322.4 8370.56,3042.9 Year 29,6912.9 8270.624,5583.6 2017 I 7,3953.5 8280.66,1204.2 II 7,6903.8 8160.46,2764.1 III 7,8042.6 8390.46,5493.1 IV 7,8714.5 8420.66,6285.1 Year 30,7603.6 8310.525,5734.1 Quarterly Cattle & Beef Forecasts (LMIC: 10/1/2015)

21. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Live Sltr. Change Steer Price fromFeeder Steer Price Year 5-Mkt Avg Year AgoSouthern Plains Quarter($/cwt)(%)7-800#5-600# 2015 I 162.4311.0 215.87 276.14 II 158.117.0 225.29 279.32 III 143-144-9.5 214-216 247-249 IV 148-150-10.0 190-193 228-232 Year 153-154-0.7 211-213 258-259 2016 I 149-152-7.3 189-193 234-239 II 149-153-4.5 190-195 237-243 III 143-1481.4 186-192 233-242 IV 144-150-1.3 181-188 226-236 Year 147-150-3.3 187-191 232-240 2017 I 143-150-2.7 179-187 228-239 II 143-151-2.6 180-189 230-241 III 138-147-2.1 177-187 225-237 IV 139-149-2.0 173-185 219-232 Year 142-148-2.4 178-186 226-237 Quarterly Cattle & Beef Forecasts (LMIC: 10/1/2015)

22. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

24. YearComm’l% Chg.Avg Carcass% Chg.Comm’l Pork% Chg. QuarterSlaughterYear AgoWeightYear AgoProductionYear Ago 2014(1,000 hd)(lbs)(mil lbs) I 27,131-2.62132.75,7840.2 II 25,575-4.42154.45,504-0.2 III 25,558-7.62124.35,424-3.5 IV 28,612-4.02151.76,131-2.3 Year 106,876-4.62143.322,843-1.5 2015 I 28,7235.92150.86,1616.5 II 27,8488.9213-1.15,9257.6 III 28,30110.7210-1.25,9379.5 IV 30,4006.3214-0.26,5106.2 Year 115,2727.9213-0.424,5337.4 2016 I 29,1171.4214-0.36,2391.3 II 27,491-1.32130.25,867 III 28,065-0.82100.25,898-0.7 IV 30,248-0.52150.36,495-0.2 Year 114,921-0.32130.124,499-0.1 LMIC Pork Production and Price Quarterly Forecasts (9/21/15) Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC

25. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics YearNat’l Wtd% Chg.Nat’l Wtd% Chg. QuarterAvg Base PriceYear AgoAvg Base PriceYear Ago 2014 ($/carcass cwt)($/live cwt) I 91.4412.868.1312.8 II 111.8425.283.3225.2 III 110.0315.581.9715.5 IV 90.138.667.158.6 Year 100.8616.175.1416.1 2015 I 68.55-25.051.07-25.0 II 73.52-34.354.77-34.3 III 74-75-32.355-56-32.3 IV 64-66-27.948-49-27.9 Year 70-71-30.252-53-30.2 2016 I 64-67-4.448-50-4.4 II 73-772.054-572.0 III 74-792.755-592.7 IV 65-714.648-534.6 Year 70-731.452-541.4 LMIC Pork Production and Price Quarterly Forecasts (9/21/15) Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC

26. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Choice All FreshPorkBroilerTurkey Aug-15/Jul-15-0.3%-0.9%1.7%-0.2%-1.4% Aug-15/Aug-141.7%5.1%-8.7%-0.5%-3.6%

27. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/AgriLandVa/AgriLandVa-08-05-2015.pdf 2015 Cropland Value by State - Dollars per acre and percent change from 2014

28. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Average Farmland Values all grades 1950−2014

29. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Who Purchased the Land? Investors, 18%

30. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Who Purchased the Land?

31. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/