1. Ag Outlook Northwest Iowa Young & Beginning Farmer Gathering
Orange City, Iowa
Feb. 27, 2017
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
158.1
171.0
168.4
174.6
170.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,829
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,065
Beg. Stocks
821
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,320
Imports 36 32 67 55 50
Total Supply
14,686
15,479
15,401
16,940
16,435
Feed & Residual
5,040
5,280
5,131
5,600
5,450
Ethanol
5,124
5,200
5,206
5,350
5,400
Food, Seed, & Other
1,369
1,401
1,429
1,445
1,470
Exports
1,920
1,867
1,898
2,225
1,900
Total Use
13,454
13,748
13,664
14,620
14,220
Ending Stocks
2,215
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.40
3.50
Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.4
88.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
47.5
48.0
52.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,358
3,927
3,926
4,307
4,180
Beg. Stocks
141 92
191
197
420
Imports 72 33 24 25
Total Supply
3,570
4,052
4,140
4,528
4,625
Crush
1,734
1,873
1,886
1,930
1,945
Seed & Residual
107
146
122
128
135
Exports
1,638
1,842
1,936
2,050
2,125
Total Use
3,478
3,862
3,944
4,108
4,205
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.50
9.60
Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 3 3

4. Corn Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soy Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

10. Change in Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

11. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Change in Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

14. Corn Grind for Ethanol

15. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

16. Current Corn Futures
4.00
3.90
3.54
Source: CME Group, 2/24/2017

17. Current Soybean Futures
9.92
9.76
9.57
Source: CME Group, 2/24/2017

18. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

19. 2017/18 Crop Margins

20. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

21. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

22. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 22 22

23. U.S. Meat Trade
Source: USDA-WAOB 23 23

24. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

25. Source: CME Group

26. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

27. Source: CME Group

28. 2013 = +$ [-$25.60 to +$24.57]
2014 = +$ [+$13.15 to +$107.25]
2015 = +$ [-$18.40 to +$26.25]
2016 = -$ [-$35.52 to +$32.92]
2017f = +$ [-$9.00 to +$25.93]

29. Source: USDA/AMS. * Steve Meyer, EMI.

30. U.S. Packing Capacity Under Construction
New pork packing
Fall 2016
Summer/Fall 2017
Summer/Fall 2018
plants
Daily
Annual
Pleasant Hope, MO
2,500
625,000
Windom, MN
4,000
1,000,000
Sioux City, IA
12,000
3,000,000
24,000
6,000,000
Coldwater, MI
10,000
2,500,000
Wright County, IA
Total
6,500
1,625,000
28,500
7,125,000
50,500
12,625,000
Head per week
31,250
137,019
242,788
% of '15 avg = mil
1.4%
6.2%
11.1%
% of '15 max = mil
1.2%
5.5%
9.7%
Source: Steve Meyer. Published in National Hog Farmer Magazine, July 19, 2016.
Source: Seaboard Triumph Foods plans to expand for second shift at Sioux City plant, February 17, 2017

31. U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-Dec 2016
(Volume excluding by-products & variety meats)
Dec-16/Nov-16
Dec-16/Dec-15
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Japan
-21%
-6%
-62,218
-5%
Mexico 8%
23%
50,480 3%
Canada
-2% 6%
8,488 2%
South Korea
20%
14%
-87,182
-18%
China (Mainland)
-12%
67%
245,965
98%
Hong Kong 5%
-26%
22,267
18%
Australia
21%
10%
10,562
Philippines
-16%
-1%
3,560
China (Taiwan)
101%
-18,565
-49%
Colombia
164%
9,820 9%
Honduras
-41%
12%
10,879
17%
Dominican Republic
29%
9,134
Guatemala
-44%
-3%
2,162
Chile
-65%
113%
5,675
Other Countries
28%
13,111 7%
Total
15%
224,138 4%
Source: USDA/ERS

32. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

33. Data Source: USDA/NASS

34. Projections for 11/6/15 9/2/16 9/27/16 12/29/16 2016 $300 $78 $15 -$30
2017
$86
$22
-$29
Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

35. Data Source: USDA/AMS

36. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

37. 2013 = -$ [-$155 to +$77]
2014 = +$ [+$41 to +$269]
2015 = -$ [-$530 to +$43]
2016 = -$ [-$359 to +$113]
2017f = +$ [-$98 to +$208]

38. U.S. Beef Exports, Jan-Dec 2016
(Volume excluding by-products & variety meats)
Year-to-Date
Country
1,000 lbs
Percent
Japan
116,965
22%
South Korea
135,937
43%
Mexico
31,090 9%
Canada
-15,332
-5%
Hong Kong
-21,827
-7%
China (Taiwan)
28,220
26%
Netherlands
-3,890
-10%
Chile
1,195 5%
Philippines
-8,114
-25%
Vietnam
6,400
52%
Dominican Republic
-3,368
-16%
United Arab Emirates
1,753
11%
Italy
-2,720
Guatemala
2,759
27%
Other Countries
15,410
12%
Total
284,478
13%
Source: USDA/ERS

39. U.S. Beef Imports, Jan-Dec 2016
(Volume excluding by-products & variety meats)
Year-to-Date
Country
1,000 lbs
Percent
Australia
-491,059
-39%
Canada
89,655
14%
New Zealand
-48,566
-7%
Mexico
101,509
26%
Nicaragua
7,438 7%
Brazil
3,118 2%
Uruguay
-14,788
-11%
Costa Rica
-75
-0%
Other Countries
-2,306
-18%
Total
-355,074
Source: USDA/ERS

40. AVERAGE VALUES
all farmland 1941−2016
$7,183
As of
Nov 16
-5.9%

41. % Change in Nominal Iowa Farmland Values 1942-2016

42. Land Values by County, 2016

43. Percent Changes in Land Values from Nov 2015

44. Farmland supply tends to be tighter in down years

45. Iowa Farmland Purchases by Buyer Types 1989-2016

46. A replay of 1920s or 1980s farm crisis?
Source: USDA-ERS, Ag DM C2-70,
Zhang and Beek (2016)
Farm Policy Journal

47. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: